Ok, i know this probably isn't that realistic, as they were basically encircled by their enemies. But lets say, possibly, that the soviet union actually tries to help them. What exactly would happen if they survived through 1919?
What if the Hungarian Soviet Republic survived?
- Thread starter Charles de Baulle
- Start date
Their best bet at surviving is by getting the support of the general population, and then using that to hold on to power after they inevitably have to accept Trianon. But it can't be Béla Kun in charge.
Their best chance to survive would be the Soviets caring enough about them to support them and invade Romania to help them (be it for selfish or internationalist reasons).
To remain in the scenario the OP wanted, the Soviets aren't willing to invade Romania and only support Hungary, Hungary doesn't invade Slovakia (keeping the military loyal since there's no separate Slovak Republic) and concentrates its efforts on halting Romania; the Romanians are convinced by the Entente (and the possibility of the Soviets intervening) to give up.
Long term if the regime survives*, the Soviets have a loyal puppet in Central Europe and it will scare all neighboring states about the possibility of Communist invasion, I could see a closer alliance between Poland, Romania, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia.
Internal politics of most countries are very slightly more in favor of right-wing parties.
The Soviet Union is not very affected by this, so Stalin probably still takes over.
When (and if) the Nazis take over in Germany, they would see the Hungarians as an enemy, but since they would probably be in an alliance with the USSR, for the moment they won't do anything.
Potentially Molotov-Ribbentrop is slightly more favorable towards Germany because Hungary is now in the Soviet sphere.
Assuming the beginning of WW2 is the same, Yugoslavia lasts slightly longer, the Soviets perform slightly better in Barbarossa because of the Hungarians, the Nazis lack an ally and have to occupy it, the Romanians pull out of the fight against the Soviet Union sooner**. All of which make the Axis perform worse.
At the end of the war Hungary receives war reparations from Romania instead of the opposite IOTL and have larger borders; so a richer and stronger Hungary and a weaker Romania.
*You might need to prevent the Hungarian Red Terror for that.
**IOTL what made the Romanians remain after taking back Bessarabia was the German promise of revision of the border with Hungary (after Hungary re-annexed Transylvania); here they've also taken parts of Transylvania, so they have little reason to actively participate.
The USSR fought Poland around that time, fighting Romania isn't impossible. And just invading Romania would be enough to significantly help Hungary.
Unrealistic on both points, it's very difficult to get support from the peasantry, especially when starting a Hungarian Red Terror, and the whole point with which they arrived in power was by keeping Hungary territorially intact, accepting Trianon would mean death.
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Depends on what you POD is to save Soviet Hungary, but if it doesn't involve the RSFSR not fighting Poland, then events are likely roughly the same.
Deleted member 207055
I suppose the Soviets might be able to help if they win the Polish-Soviet War. To answer OP's question, the Soviets have a stronger foothold in Europe, the Austrians and Yugoslavians are perhaps a bit more militarized, obviously there's no Horthy Government, and "White Hungarians" exist as a diaspora.
By the time of the Battle of Warsaw, the Hungarian Soviet Republic was already dead for more than a year.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Why no Bela Kun? Any specific people in mind for a replacement? And what do you see a replacement doing differently that provides a chance for survival?
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
What's the borders of your imagined Red Hungary, and the borders of Romania? And heck, the borders of Czechchoslovakia (or is it just Czechia)? Yugoslavia?
Something closer to what they got at Belgrade than what they got at Trianon.
The demarcation line (marked in solid red) under the armistice of Belgrade. Most Hungarian forces were to withdraw north of the line. The dashed and dotted lines represent Czechoslovak and Vix Note demands, respectively.
With the areas with more Hungarians being more likely to remain a part of Hungary.
My guess would be that the Slovak border strip remains Hungarian and that it has more of Transylvania ITTL, they can forget about Vojvodina. They don't lose the territories to Austria. And it's also possible there is some expansion post-WW2.
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raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
So, they complied with the Belgrade Armistice terms pretty quickly. Did they also with the Foch-Benes Czechoslovakian terms issued the next day and their forces south of that line rather quickly, despite their being a Red invasion/uprising in Slovakia later?Something closer to what they got at Belgrade than what they got at Trianon.
The demarcation line (marked in solid red) under the armistice of Belgrade. Most Hungarian forces were to withdraw north of the line. The dashed and dotted lines represent Czechoslovak and Vix Note demands, respectively.
With the areas with more Hungarians being more likely to remain a part of Hungary.
My guess would be that the Slovak border strip remains Hungarian and that it has more of Transylvania ITTL, they can forget about Vojvodina. They don't lose the territories to Austria. And it's also possible there is some expansion post-WW2.
IIRC the invasion of Slovakia was done after the Communist took over in Hungary, meaning that the government before them had already given up these territories. However since they never accepted the loss of Slovakia trough treaty, they would definitely retain parts of it, but all of Slovakia is very unlikely.
Béla Kun was incompetent and alienated everyone. I don't know potential replacements, but it wasn't hard to be less needlessly politically inept than him.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Which might be possible if the Soviets get themselves, via conflict with Romania and Poland and Czechoslovakia that ends properly with Soviet Bessarabia, northern Bukovina, Carpatho-Ukraine, and western Ukraine instead of Polish.
Actually I've found a map of the HSR when the coup happened:
As you can see Hungary keeps Carpathian Ruthenia, a border strip with Slovakia, Međimurje, the territories seceded to Austria IOTL and parts of Transylvania. And if WW2 happens as in my TL it would also gain territories post-WW2.
Hungary and the USSR would have a border according to the map above whether they conquer Poland or Romania. No need to invade Czechoslovakia.
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The Hungarian Soviet republic had slim chances, mainly due to the international / military situation it was in. While the map above is correct, how do they retain this territory? The revolutionaries gained support by the military because they promised to revert the territorial concessions of previous governments. If they simply do nothing, they might not give Romania a reason to invade - but they would lose said support and run the risk of being overthrown by a military coup. Just like the Bolsheviks ran the risk of being overthrown because of their acceptance of Brest-Litowsk. The Bolsheviks prevailed - but they were organised differently.
@RedSword12's criticism of Bela Kun is right there; Bela Kun was no Lenin. This isn't a personal thing - none of the Hungarian leaders were such ruthless political geniuses as Lenin was. Just look at how often they swapped their positions - utter chaos instead of building up power structures of their own.
Now there are two directions into which the Hungarian Soviet Republic could be transformed:
It could either be less dictatorial (which is what has been alluded to under the rubric of its being "more popular" maybe?) - nominally it was still a coalition of communists and social democrats, but the social democrats were sidelined - it could of course spill less blood and cause less panic domestically. While that may have saved some lives - especially since it might have meant less of a "White Terror" reaction against the communists afterwards, in which a lot more people were killed -, it most probably means that when the leftist coalition fails to provide bread and also fails to revert the loss of Hungary's territories, it will become so unpopular AND easy to dislodge that it is removed in a heartbeat.
Or it could be more dictatorial, and - as much as it pains me to say this - this might have been the least improbable way to prolong the life of the Hungarian Soviet Republic. As it was, communist rule in Hungary 1919 was truly disorganised and chaotic. The "Red Terror" in Hungary was less of a targeted campaign against political opponents, conducted by a secret-police-in-the-making, which stabilised the communist grip on power - as the Chekist Red Terror in Soviet Russia was -, and more a series of class-based pogroms. If the Hungarian communists had more closely followed Lenin's model and spent more efforts into building and stabilising their own power structures and eliminating their political enemies, tightly controlling and harnessing the popular revolt instead of being driven and whisked around by it, then that's their only chance to push through a settlement with the Entente that is truly unfavourable in the eyes of Hungarian nationalists who cannot know OTL and how it was even worse.
Now, such a more dictatorial Hungarian Soviet Republic might be quite a dystopian beast indeed, let's not be in doubt about that.
What might follow? Difficult to say.
I can just think of one tiny detail: If the HSR experiment does not fail, then we don't get György Lukács's "History and Class Consciousness" and thus no Marxist concept of "reification", which alone would already alter Western Marxist philosophy of the 20th century quite deeply.
@RedSword12's criticism of Bela Kun is right there; Bela Kun was no Lenin. This isn't a personal thing - none of the Hungarian leaders were such ruthless political geniuses as Lenin was. Just look at how often they swapped their positions - utter chaos instead of building up power structures of their own.
Now there are two directions into which the Hungarian Soviet Republic could be transformed:
It could either be less dictatorial (which is what has been alluded to under the rubric of its being "more popular" maybe?) - nominally it was still a coalition of communists and social democrats, but the social democrats were sidelined - it could of course spill less blood and cause less panic domestically. While that may have saved some lives - especially since it might have meant less of a "White Terror" reaction against the communists afterwards, in which a lot more people were killed -, it most probably means that when the leftist coalition fails to provide bread and also fails to revert the loss of Hungary's territories, it will become so unpopular AND easy to dislodge that it is removed in a heartbeat.
Or it could be more dictatorial, and - as much as it pains me to say this - this might have been the least improbable way to prolong the life of the Hungarian Soviet Republic. As it was, communist rule in Hungary 1919 was truly disorganised and chaotic. The "Red Terror" in Hungary was less of a targeted campaign against political opponents, conducted by a secret-police-in-the-making, which stabilised the communist grip on power - as the Chekist Red Terror in Soviet Russia was -, and more a series of class-based pogroms. If the Hungarian communists had more closely followed Lenin's model and spent more efforts into building and stabilising their own power structures and eliminating their political enemies, tightly controlling and harnessing the popular revolt instead of being driven and whisked around by it, then that's their only chance to push through a settlement with the Entente that is truly unfavourable in the eyes of Hungarian nationalists who cannot know OTL and how it was even worse.
Now, such a more dictatorial Hungarian Soviet Republic might be quite a dystopian beast indeed, let's not be in doubt about that.
What might follow? Difficult to say.
I can just think of one tiny detail: If the HSR experiment does not fail, then we don't get György Lukács's "History and Class Consciousness" and thus no Marxist concept of "reification", which alone would already alter Western Marxist philosophy of the 20th century quite deeply.
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My suggestion was to defend against Romania's invasion instead of trying to conquer Slovakia, OTL course of event allowed the Romanians to advance with little resistance and when the HSR retreated from Slovakia it had lost the support of the military, which caused its loss.
It obviously also needs a different course in internal politics but not losing the military conflict would help its chances significantly.
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