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I'll have to give credit to a banned poster and wikipedia for this concept, which he posted in 2015, but never got any responses the first time around:

Here goes:

King Anthony (Anton) of Saxony reigned from 1827 to 1836.
Prussian diplomats discussed granting the Prussian Rhineland, which was predominantly Catholic, to Anthony, who was Catholic, in exchange for Lutheran Saxony in 1827.
Nothing came of these talks.
Suppose King Anthony agreed to exchange Saxony for the Prussian Rhineland. What happens then?

Factors to consider -

Near-term - The attitude of the powers

France - j'adore (wanting to get Prussia off its border)

Austria - nein (not wanting the buffer state of Saxony disappear and increasing the Austro-Prussian border)

Russia - нет, но, может быть, да [net, no, mozhet byt', da] (Russia probably prefers nothing change in terms of borders and if Prussia remains on guard against France in Rhineland, but also wants to keep Prussian friendship)

Britain (all things being equal, preferring Prussia remain on guard against France in Rhineland, but possibly indifferent, and certainly not an issue to risk British resources or prestige upon).

Would or could other powers force the Prussians and Saxons to stand down? Would Metternich resort to war?

Would Austria, as President of the German Confederation, have any constitutional grounds to object to a deal among the Prussian and Saxon Kings?

Despite some tendency to ask, "why now?" I do not think Russia would have a determined, principled objection to a territorial exchange. It is a change in the map of Europe, but it is an orderly change, agreed to by the will of the Tsar's brother monarchs, including a Holy Ally.

So if there's an Austro-Prussian War over it between 1827 and 1830, what happens?

Assuming no war and European acceptance, will this change color Europe's reaction to the Belgian revolution? Some may object to weakening Netherlands as a buffer against France because Prussia has also retreated from the French border.

How would Anton, and his successor after 1836 fit with the population and elites of the Rheinprovinz?

What effect does any of this have on German nationalism or liberalism?

Note that this does not turn Prussia into an entirely "East German" state. As far as I can tell, the proposal said nothing about yielding Westfaln (Westphalia). So that still keeps a Prussian presence and interest in northwest Germany. It also keeps the Ruhr (or most of it) in Prussia. Prussia now just has a much smaller German Catholic minority.

Here's a map showing Saxony in red:German_Empire_-_Saxony_(1871).png

Here's another map showing Prussian Rheinprovinz (founded 1822) in Red:
German_Empire_-_Prussia_-_Rhine_(1871).png

Saxony has been a traditional ally of France, along with Bavaria. I would think France could not be happier with its choice of German neighbors.

Or have I read the Bourbons wrong - did they want to have Prussian guarantors close by?

If 1848 or an 1848 analogue happens - how is Wettin Rheinland going to do under Anton's successor?

Would later French regimes, Orleanist or Napoleonic, seek to cut deals where they gain some territory in Palatinate or Saar and seek to push for the Wettins and Wittelsbachs to get compensation east of the Rhine? Would the French force the issue before the 19th century is out? Or might they have the perspicacity to leave well enough alone?

If the French don't press that issue, might the lack of Prussians on the border lead them ignore German objections to French acquisition of Luxembourg? Or even Belgium?

Is the Germany unified ultimately regardless? If so, how is this done without the Franco-Prussian War?

I am eager to see your thoughts-
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