What If: The Great Peace

Everything necessary for World War I is in place. Archduke Ferdinand has just been killed. Europe's tangled web of alliances ensure that any war will turn into a continent-wide conflict, and Austria-Hungary is frothing at the mouth with unreasonable demands from Serbia.

But in the end, someone blinks. Someone takes to time to actually estimate how devastating a war would be and backs down. The July crisis is resolved amicably. Germany convinces Austria-Hungary to be more reasonable. Serbia makes a show of cracking down on terrorism and arresting conspirators.

No one is happy with the results, but they avoid a war, and seeing how close they came to a continent-enveloping conflict, they rethink their alliances and decide to form some sort of League of Nations to meet regularly and deal with such crises peacefully before they blow out of proportions.
 
I think a better place to situate your scenario is the Christmas truce of 1914, as prior to the War breaking out, all of the Great Powers were prepared and eager for war. Germany was facing the real possibility of being contained between France and Russia, so was eager for a 'decisive moment' to happen before 1917, which was when Russia's improvements of the military and rail lines were scheduled to be completed. Russia, stupidly enough, will not back down from defending the Serbs, and Germany cannot allow the Russians to defeat their main ally.

After a few months the European players were horrified to find that modern, industrialized warfare was not the jolly affair they had been expecting. So Christmas Truce is a good place to have the Powers come to some kind of armistice and peace. It might also set the stage for an eventual 'League of Nations' to take place.
 
The problem is that by that time, the losses had so horrendous, that neither side would want a "white" peace, they wanted retribution for the men already dead from the Battle of the Frontiers and the Marne and the solidifying of the Western Front. Also, the Eastern Front didn't help the situatiuon either.

Dan Carlin's Blueprint for Armaggedon does a great job of putting you in the minds of the people running this war.
 
I like the OP's theme --- after the various threats and ultimatums by Austria-Hungary and before the outbreak of war. And it's quite a challenge because ultimatums are useless. Worse than useless. They escalate, and they seem mainly designed for the domestic consumption of the country making the threats so that they can feel like they're doing something, can feel tough, can later claim they gave the other side a chance.

But, maybe Serbia realizes that Austria-Hungary has put itself in a trap. Maybe Serbia appoints a retired and respected Attorney General to supervise the investigation, and perhaps more importantly, some highly skilled, currently active people to conduct the actual investigation. And maybe some German leaders somehow foresee they don't need this kind of war and see another way to win or compete more in the running in the ever-evolving race for colonies. And Germany convinces Austria-Hungary to moderate its demands.

But, all in all, quite a challenge. And maybe there's another way. Maybe German leaders don't need to be this far-seeing. (and/or they see they don't need to take on this risky a course of action when they already have a pretty good situation)
 
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Maybe Germany realizes that they are poised to become the economic powerhouse of the 20th century.

And with trade, maybe German leaders realize a 60-40 split is about right. Once you bump past getting two-thirds of the benefits, it becomes too much of an unstable situation. That is, the soft power of (partial) economic domination, not the hard power of military domination.

(and in the actual world, they were, and they loused it up)
 
The Russian ambassador in Sarajevo dying; the German ambassador in Russia not knowing about Hungarian "no annexation" terms; Bertold not making the boneheaded move of declaring war prior to mobilization; possibly even the Wily-Nicky telegrams...
 

Yuelang

Banned
have both willy and nicky eating crumpets and sipping tea at London when the shooting war between AH and Serbia starts.

Then they simultaneously calls quit from Germany-AH and Russia-Serbia alliance, citing that they arent interested of war because they want to make the first joint mission to reach and colonize the moon.
 
Ol' Wilhelm told Austria-Hungary to act quickly and then he went on a yacht trip where he was out of contact for three weeks. In poker, this is called fancy play syndrome.

German was poised to remain the dominant economic power, I'm sure they would call it the leading economic power, for the bulk of the 20th century. Like a poker player with a big chip lead, Willy should have played a sound and conservative game.
 
The ultimate idea is to have no major war between the major European powers during the 20th Century, with emphasis on major and European. That is to say, proxy conflicts and wars with Asian powers don't go against the spirit of the OP.
 
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