What if the German-Spanish Treaty of 1899 were more extensive?

raharris1973

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This is inspired by many of the dead-end threads about the U.S. taking more territory from Spain, usually in the Atlantic (the Canaries) or Africa. They (rightfully, in my view) come to dead-ends because the US was allergic to taking on African colonial territory, and the more populated and Europeanized Canaries would be both harder for the Spanish to give up and harder for a new colonizer to hold.

However, the Spanish American War did stimulate the German Spanish Treaty of 1899, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Spanish_Treaty_(1899), which involved the German purchase of the Marianas, Palaus and Caroline islands from Spain. The territory in question is shown here:

German_new_guinea_1888_1899.png


However, Spain theoretically had more colonial territory it could have sold at the time. Not the Philippines or Guam or Puerto Rico or Cuba who were spoken for by the treaty ending the Spanish-American war, but elsewhere, in Africa.

Unlike the U.S., Germany had no allergy to acquiring African territory, and had 4 colonies on the continent already by 1899.

Additional territories available from Spain in 1899 would have been Rio De Oro, Seguia el Hamra and Cape Juby which together comprised the Spanish Sahara, and Spanish Guinea consisting of the islands of Fernando Poo, Annobon and a small block of mainland territory, conveniently adjacent to the existing German colony of Kamerun.

These territories would not have added much except to fill in more of the world in German colors.

For reasons I said above, mainly their population and integration with the mainland, I don't think the nearby Canary islands would have been sold or purchased. The others in Africa, I don't see an insurmountable problem.

406px-Morocco_Protectorate.png


Spanish Guinea.jpg


So Germany purchases these territories in 1899. In the grand scheme of things, its not that big a deal. The Germans send in some folks to guard and administer the additional scraps of Africa.

Let's put a butterfly net on top of it for about 5 years, until after the start of the Russo-Japanese War in February 1904. That brings us to a period approaching the 1st Morocco Crisis.

I suspect that there are going to be knock-on effects of some sort or another for the Morocco crisis. Germany is certainly more capable of intervening in southwestern Morocco at least.

How are things changed here?

Assuming that there are in the end no changes to the outcome of the Morocco crisis and Morocco's ultimate partition by 1912 (which I think unlikely, honestly) the French need to spend just a little bit more time using their Algerian, Moroccan and Senagalese troops for a couple weeks to clean up the "German Sahara" before those troops can move to metropolitan France to help man the western front. The enlargement of Kamerun to include Spanish Guinea results in at most trivial changes to the French campaign to clear out German Kamerun.

Post-World War I and independence the main affect is that equatorial Guinea is a mandate like Cameroon and becomes part of it, and does not eventually emerge as a petro-state in the early 21st century.
 
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As you said, Morocco is the big knock on here. France is unlikely to pursue the region as their "India", as I've read in a few cases, at least isofar as they aren't willing to start a fight with Germany before their pet attack bear is firmly in their camp and modernized, and German commercial interests and citizens and influence in the court would both actually be in Morocco to give German claims of a right to protect the region more weight. I think the most likely outcome is a protectorate type relationship, with Morocco joining with Turkey as a place to vent excess German production and capital.

Of course, this also impacts France, who now has the opportunity to seek colonial influence elsewhere. Might she push harder in East Africa in this case, going after Ethiopia? Or would, now that she doesn't have to placate Italian interests in balancing North Africa aquisitions,does she herself make a stab at Libya and try to bring down the Turks for a peice of the Middle East?
 
I suspect that there are going to be knock-on effects of some sort or another for the Morocco crisis. Germany is certainly more capable of intervening in southwestern Morocco at least.
Yes. The question is, does Germany's improved position in Morocco scare the French enough to not act so boldly, or maybe act too aggressive? The main goal of the Morocco Crisis for the Germans was to push the Entente apart, with this set up it might happen, or the crisis takes place elsewhere, somewhere the British might not turn a blind eye too...
 

raharris1973

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Might she push harder in East Africa in this case, going after Ethiopia?

Possibly, although to a degree Ethiopia was already a client/ally of France and Russia. Was Ethiopia more vulnerable in the 1900s than the 1890s? I get that the French could be more effective colonial warriors than the Italians, at the same time, they would have only one axis of advance into the interior, that would be quite obvious, via Djibouti.

Or would, now that she doesn't have to placate Italian interests in balancing North Africa aquisitions,does she herself make a stab at Libya and try to bring down the Turks for a peice of the Middle East?

There are quite a few possibilities here:

a) Take Libya for herself as a consolation prize. Knock-on effect, it worsens relations with Italy.

b) Try to bring down the Turks and gain the Levant as their "India" or the New "Outremer", probably Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. If others don't get compensation though, there could be a European crisis escalating into a war, or a fraying of France's alliances.

c) A more conservative approach towards the Ottomans. France seeks to slow the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, whose debt it holds a great share of. Thus, if/when Italy shops around for European approval of it invading Tripoli, it gets a hard "no" from France. Not sure how the change would affect the German feeling of obligation to Italy or not.

The main goal of the Morocco Crisis for the Germans was to push the Entente apart, with this set up it might happen, or the crisis takes place elsewhere, somewhere the British might not turn a blind eye too...

Ah, so you are suggesting the crisis might happen elsewhere, but perhaps someplace Britain is more invested in, so it leads to Anglo-French war with Germany right then, or its France pushing into an area Britain cares about more, and that breaks up the Entente Cordiale?
 
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There are quite a few possibilities here:

a) Take Libya for herself as a consolation prize. Knock-on effect, it worsens relations with Italy.

b) Try to bring down the Turks and gain the Levant as their "India" or the New "Outremer", probably Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. If others don't get compensation though, there could be a European crisis escalating into a war, or a fraying of France's alliances.

c) A more conservative approach towards the Ottomans. France seeks to slow the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, whose debt it holds a great share of. Thus, if/when Italy ships around for European approval of it invading Tripoli, it gets a hard "no" from France. Not sure how the change would affect the German feeling of obligation to Italy or not.

a) Italy becoming a loyal member of the Triple Alliance is critical for Germany, which this accomplishes.

b) If there was any diplomatic blunder which would force Germany and Britain into an alliance it's this one. Britain will not tolerate such a bulwark falling: One that simultaneously keeps the Russian's out of Persia/India, the French out of Egypt and the ME, and the Russian fleet out of the Mediterranean. Germany cannot lose the Ottomans either or allow the Russians to be able to completely out compete the Austrians in the Balkans.

Ah, so you are suggesting the crisis might happen elsewhere, but perhaps someplace Britain is more invested in, so it leads to Anglo-French war with Germany right then, or its France pushing into an area Britain cares about more, and that breaks up the Entente Cordiale?
The latter. The former is unlikely to happen unless butterflies change up British leadership (pro-French leaders replaced by German ones, eg King Edward, Grey, Churchill, etc) and/or the French make a massive diplomatic blunder.
 
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