What if the French generals had been competent and had realized the weakness of the Maginot line and the unprotected Ardennes? What if they had protected or mined the Ardennes? What if the Maginot Line was extended?
So what would happen next? Would the Nazis sue for peace and go after the Soviet Union?There'd still be a bloody battle. OTL 58,000 German soldiers died in the six weeks campaign. More than in the first six weeks of attacking the USSR. That can extrapolate to 120,000 dead and another 310,000 wounded in a 90 day offensive. I'd expect the collective Allied maimed and dead to be at a similar scale.
The historian Horne described the German Army of 1940 as a sharp but brittle instrument. I'd guess breaking it depends on how throughly it is repulsed. If the Sickle Cut maneuver fails & the Germans are stuck in Belgium, facing a congealing defense in depth. Its probable morale is failing and the Gnerals are pondering their options. If the battle peters out near or south of Paris then the Gobbels propagandists can make a case for success.
So what would happen next? Would the Nazis sue for peace and go after the Soviet Union?
For a start if the Battle grinds to a stalemate I can see Italy not jumping in like it did.
No obvious seat at the victors table for them
... and Stalin does a little jig as he strings Germany out for more concessions.
What if the French generals had been competent and had realized the weakness of the Maginot line and the unprotected Ardennes? What if they had protected or mined the Ardennes? What if the Maginot Line was extended?
Even if the French general staff and government had been competent I am not sure they could have avoided defeat, although defeat would have happened later.
The conditions of war had evolved since WW1. WW1 times favored defense because heavy artillery then had the edge. WW2 favored offense because tanks and war planes had the edge.
Besides, Germany made breakthroughs on the tactical field that made it literally unstoppable for 2 years. Contrary to the USSR, France lacked the strategic depth and the demographics to trade land for time and win by attrition.
In 1940, Germany’s population was twice as big as France’s. The BEF was still but a rather marginal support for the French.
So it is still quite probable that, if Fall Gelb failed in may 1940, Germany would switch to another strategy and be able to overwhelm France thanks to its operative superiority in the second half of 1940.
Wasn't there a TL called The Blunted Sickle which covered the issue quite well?
Wasn't there a TL called The Blunted Sickle which covered the issue quite well?
Well, it mostly depends on what you expect.
If the Maginot Line doesn't get breached around Sedan (after all, the Maginot Line technically went from the Channel to Corsica, it's just that people generally consider the heavier bits in Alsace and Northern Lorraine to be the whole deal), then the rest of Fall Gelb still goes through.
That means that the Northern portion of the German army still crushes its way through the Netherlands. You can expect much of Pas-de-Calais and Picardy to be taken by the Germans in this scenario, but they'll probably fall short of Paris.
But then what ?
Well, Germany never had a very good pilot training system. Their pilots getting shipped to the Sahara after being captured would mean the quality of their air force would slowly go down, especially if Goering goes and makes some kind of boast that involves transport planes (which were piloted by the instructors).
On the other side, you have a lot of French planes incoming, since the industry is finally sorting itself out after the mess of the mobilisation and the forced fusions. In other terms, the situation is rapidly worsening in terms of air force disparity.
In terms of tanks, well, Germany does have an edge. But the French also has an edge of their own that can come into play as soon as the war slows down. The B1-bis. The French heavy tank was a real catastrophe for Germany in tank-to-tank combat, they needed Stukas or arty to get rid of those, even with the poor French doctrine. Furthermore, the tanks in production were slowly being enhanced, with the newer tanks having radios for example. Add to that the very good Somua S40, the G1 being developped, and the Germans are getting a tank headache.
Finally, France was rapidly innovating in terms of defense tactics. Most of the tactics used during the war by Germany were developed by France and used on the Germans during Fall Rot.
I think calling a German victory, considering their small base motor pool than France and lesser industrial capacity than the Entente, is overestimating Germany.
What if the Maginot Line was extended?
I'm not going to contest that.That thing was not effective against Germans
The original concept consider the main Defence line had to be extended by Belgium fortress line
But Belgium abandon those plans after Handful of those forts were build and they were badly armed do lack of Money. (the German used that gap in Ardenne)
Next to that were Issues that Belgium Main fort Eben-Emael. was used as military penal institution.
to make matter worst the Belgium Army was a Joke in time in man power and equipment,
stuff like Belgium mechanized cavalry used bicycle, yes bicycle
there majority of there Air-force fighters was order in USA and not yet deliver as Germans invade Belgium
(they had only 50 reasonably modern standard fighters against 4,020 Aircraft of Luftwaffe)
they had TEN AMC 35 tanks, 42 T-15s light tanks and 200 T-13 ultralight "tank destroyers". (yes against 2,445 germans tanks)
you understand were i getting to
The French Generals knew the poor condition of Belgium Army and spread there Forces two ways along Maginot Line and at long the west Belgium Border
to move fast into Belgium, if Germans come, leaving gap at Ardenne, thinking that Germans were unable to move true.
they came and conquer Belgium in 18 days finishing Main fort Eben-Emael in couple of hours
in mean time the German tank divisions dash true Ardenne in french Territory
Here the french Generals realized there error, but were unable to move there Tank divisions fast back to France and do concentrated Attack on German main force.
who a easy game to deal with dispenses french forces.
so partly its dirty Belgium fault that France lost the war...
Well, no. The Maginot Line was incredibly cheap for what it was and was an excellent force multiplier. Furthermore, the B1s the French army had - 360ish - were used inadequately, even if they were nightmares for the Germans to deal with, and the French fighter - the MS406 - was at the time of its conception considered the best fighter in the world. That was, of course, not true in hindsight, the D520 was better.So what could have French do better ?
first not build the Maginot Line ! use Money and resources to build more Char B1 tanks and better Aircrafts.
There, you can only have the benefit of hindsight. And, not exactly. Best would've been combat in the Rhine plain in German mainland, but that would have carried many risks - notably the problem of capturing the forested, hilly region of the Northern Vosges to not be easily encircled.better tactic for dynamic mobile tank combat with support of Air-force for ground attacks on enemy
and discounted Belgium and focus on French Border and combat on french mainland.