In 1875, shocked and disturbed at France's rapid recovery from the Franco-Prussian War, and its ability to pay off its indemnities to Prussia ahead of schedule, Bismarck started a press campaign hinting suggesting war was likely. This led to a degree of Russian and British criticism of Bismarck that he was unprepared for, and Bismarck fairly quickly wound down tensions.
PoD 1: Could the initial press campaign have gotten out of hand, and provoked a French declaration of war?
If it did, what would be the outcome?
PoD 2:What if the Germans started the war? PoD here is that shortly after Bismarck ratchets up tensions and threats via the press, he dies or is incapacitated. Without his influence, the German military command persuades Kaiser Wilhelm I and the next civilian chancellor that a preventive war is necessary, and Germany mobilizes against, declares war on, and attacks France.
If this happened, what would be the outcome?