What if the Franco-German "War in Sight" crisis of 1875 turned into a real war?

raharris1973

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In 1875, shocked and disturbed at France's rapid recovery from the Franco-Prussian War, and its ability to pay off its indemnities to Prussia ahead of schedule, Bismarck started a press campaign hinting suggesting war was likely. This led to a degree of Russian and British criticism of Bismarck that he was unprepared for, and Bismarck fairly quickly wound down tensions.

PoD 1: Could the initial press campaign have gotten out of hand, and provoked a French declaration of war?

If it did, what would be the outcome?

PoD 2:What if the Germans started the war? PoD here is that shortly after Bismarck ratchets up tensions and threats via the press, he dies or is incapacitated. Without his influence, the German military command persuades Kaiser Wilhelm I and the next civilian chancellor that a preventive war is necessary, and Germany mobilizes against, declares war on, and attacks France.

If this happened, what would be the outcome?
 

raharris1973

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Either way it starts I think Germany is still favored militarily in 1875. Russia and Britain are unhappy with Germany pushing France around too much at this time, but France does not have an alliance working like a well-oiled machine with either Russia or Britain. So Russia and Britain intervene mainly to limit German gains or indemnities, and Germany likely scales back any demands to not get too far on their bad side. The Germans charge an indemnity of some sort. Was the concentration of ore at the Briey-Longwy area well known by 1875. If the Germans seize that it is a relatively small territory on the map, but an important one, economically. Less likely, but perhaps a territorial objective for Germany would be advancing its frontier with France from the Vosges to the Meuse.
 

raharris1973

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Any further thoughts on this?

If it lasts late into the year, and in to 1876, might it distract Europe from the Bosnian and Bulgarian rebellions, with knock-ons preventing/postponing the Russo-Ottoman War?
 
Britain and Russia likely intervene to keep the balance of power In Europe drawing manpower from there colonial holdings France could deploy a larger army but a less well trained one. Britain would establish a blockade on the German coast while Russia would most likely advance into east Prussia.

Results

France=regains Alsace-Lorraine and gets war repetitions paid by Germany

Germany=has to pay war reparations and looses Alsace-Lorraine

Russia= Gets war repetitions

Britain=gets war reparations
 

raharris1973

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Are the Russians going to be all that great so as to be able to enforce such terms?

Will the Austrians, Italians and Ottomans be neutral?

You're figuring the British will rely heavily on Indian troops for their ground component, the French will rely on Algerians?

If this war goes down like you said in your post, how long will it last? How far into France will the Germans advance before they are held and turned back?
Will the war spill over into Luxemburg, Belgium or Netherlands?

Finally, will the Russians still be up for a war on the Ottomans the same decade. If not, how does the Balkan situation change compared to OTL?

Will Germany still be considered a pariah through the 1880s and prevented from establishing overseas colonies, or will it be forgiven in good time allowed to resume great power business as usual?

Will Germany have a hankering for revanche and getting back Alsace-Lorraine, or might this ironically "clear the air" between France and Germany, allowing the two to possibly ally in later generations?

Internally, does defeat give a boost to liberalism, socialism or anarchism in Germany?
 
Are the Russians going to be all that great so as to be able to enforce such terms?

Will the Austrians, Italians and Ottomans be neutral?

You're figuring the British will rely heavily on Indian troops for their ground component, the French will rely on Algerians?

If this war goes down like you said in your post, how long will it last? How far into France will the Germans advance before they are held and turned back?
Will the war spill over into Luxemburg, Belgium or Netherlands?

Finally, will the Russians still be up for a war on the Ottomans the same decade. If not, how does the Balkan situation change compared to OTL?

Will Germany still be considered a pariah through the 1880s and prevented from establishing overseas colonies, or will it be forgiven in good time allowed to resume great power business as usual?

Will Germany have a hankering for revanche and getting back Alsace-Lorraine, or might this ironically "clear the air" between France and Germany, allowing the two to possibly ally in later generations?

Internally, does defeat give a boost to liberalism, socialism or anarchism in Germany?

Germany will be in a two front war and cut off from sea access.

The Austrians will remain neutral as they are still a little salty at Bismarck for forming Germany without there consent and peeved at France for helping the Italians unify.

Germany will likely never get colonies but Bismarck will be ousted from power and put in a "gracious retirement"



This will likely boost socialism and liberals as this will discredit the military establishment.

The militants will have a craving for revenge but the socialists and liberals will likely bitch and moan about it but not do anything.

People will keep a close eye on Germany but he won't be a pariah
 
We must keep in mind that the League of the Three Emperors is still in place between Germany, Austria, and Russia. While a DOW by France would probably not lead to a war with all three powers, I don’t think Russia would join the opposing side just yet. After all, this is far from the diplomatic situation of 1914. If the war is expanded beyond France and Germany, it would likely be Britain setting up a blockade and sending a limited force to France.

I would give the edge to Germany in this situation. A one front war against an opponent beaten just four years earlier seems very advantageous to the already stronger Germany.
 
If war were forced in 1870, I imagine that both Britain and Russia would be alarmed by Prussia attempting to "go Napoleon" and would intervene, if not militarily, diplomatically and economically. Britain would probably refuse to sell Prussia war material, and Russia would suddenly be very chilly economically and probably send an army into Poland as a "precaution" for some such thing. Austria would probably bend neutral, or even threaten to back out of the League of Three Emperor's which might induce Russia to threaten the same. That would undue all of Bismarck's work and most likely lead to the war ending in a treaty with whichever side declared war first being made to offer apology and a status quo being enforced.
 
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