What If the first Balkan War of 1912-1913 had escalated to a European war

It's an ensemble factor. Italy in the CP mean that the Serbian are doomed even quicker than OTL with the AH that can divert more force on them and Italy who in OTL occupied Albania can attack them from another front.

Prompting Russia to jump in as quickly as possible.

France must divert more force for defend the Alps front so she has less men to put against the German, and yes there was 11 battle of the Isonzo, but WWI is not famous for the great advance and the mobility of the troops and that zone is very easily defended.

Holding the Alps wouldn't mobilize much in terms of French (or Italian) manpower - given the nature of the terrain, I suspect that this front would have been very static, with artillery duels but little else. It's all too easy for both sides could turn it into a modern Thermopylae, particularly without modern artillery or aviation.

And don't forget the Regia Marina, maybe is not at par with Marine Nationale or the Royal Navy but she can put a strong show and without Italy no Otranto Barrage and so even the AH navy is free to participate in the fray.

That would be a nice duel. The Marine Nationale would concentrate at Toulon and Marseille, and there would be British squadrons at Gibraltar and Alexandria. Facing them, the Regia Marina and the Royal and Imperial Navy, plus the newly-commissioned Goeben and Turkish ships. The Mediterranean fronts (at sea and on land) would be a most fascinating sight IMHO.

Some Entente troops may be sent in Lybia and so we another front
By the way the italian performance in WWI is in line with that of the other power, it's that Italy was the last of the great power or the first of the minor but in a close fight as WWI it's well enough for tip the balance on one part

And Italy could move into Tunisia and/or Egypt as well.
 

Eurofed

Banned
As "opportunity targets", I am sure, but was there a strong current in the early 1900s to get these? I'm more used to Italian irredentism in the Adriatic.

In 1912, IIRC, Italy had already signed a secret pact with France that detached it from the Triple Alliance. That seems to indicate Nizza and Savoia weren't seen as priorities when compared to what could be obtained from A-H.

Irredentist claims against France were indeed felt as less important than those against A-H, but were still meaningful. Anyway, ITTL it doesn't matter at all (and the secret pact with France is worthless), because Italy shall join the war to foster its own strategic interests, namely to stop Serbian expansionism to the Adriatic, which happen to match similar A-H interests. When the war expands to all the other Great Powers thanks to the cascading alliances, Italy shall simply dust off Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, Malta, Dijbouti, etc. as its other main war goals.
 
In the Guardian yesterday there was a reprint of an article dated 11 January 1913 entitled A study of the Balkan war. See http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2011/jan/11/archive-a-study-of-the-balkan-war-1913?INTCMP=SRCH .

Here are extracts from the article:

What are people's opinions on Mr. Wilkinson's analysis? If the Balkan War had escalated to a European War in 1912 or 1913 the combatants would have been as follows, according to Wilkinson:

Central Powers: Austria-Hungary and Germany, joined by Romania.

Entente: France and Russia, joined by Bulgaria and Serbia.

Would the Ottoman Empire have allied with the Entente? What about Italy? Great Britain would have entered the war only if Germany had invaded Belgium as it did in World War 1.

What are the possible courses and outcomes of such a war? Would it have lasted for a longer or shorter period than World War 1 in OTL?


I think the Ottoman Empire would side with Germany, Bulgaria and Serbia out of fear of Russia. Romania and Austria-Hungary would be no threat to the Turks unless they manage to knock Bulgaria and Serbia out early on, but even then, its likely that a compromise in the form of territorial adjustments favorable in the majority to the Turks would restore a semblance of balance into the Balkans....though the wild-card in all this would be Greece. Turkey would be mainly concerned with the defense of its Asiatic territories from British, French, and Russian encroachment.
 
Out of these two options, Italy would favour stronger Italian influence in the Balkans.:p

Sacred selfishness for the win indeed!

I would tend to favor Serbia, if I were Italy. There's less friction between the two nations, and a successful Serbia isn't a threat for Italian goals, while a successful A-H is quite the obstacle.
 
When the war expands to all the other Great Powers thanks to the cascading alliances, Italy shall simply dust off Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, Malta, Dijbouti, etc. as its other main war goals.

Or will they? I'm sure they'll capture some colonies, but the terrain around the French border is quite rough. There's no chance to go from the north, either. IMO they could capture Nice and possibly a bit further - but then the war would turn into a stalemate and trenching.
 
Or will they? I'm sure they'll capture some colonies, but the terrain around the French border is quite rough. There's no chance to go from the north, either. IMO they could capture Nice and possibly a bit further - but then the war would turn into a stalemate and trenching.

As in OTL WWI in all other front, it that now France face a two front war and must divert resource that originally were used to fight the german, so now her situation is in general worse.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Or will they? I'm sure they'll capture some colonies, but the terrain around the French border is quite rough. There's no chance to go from the north, either. IMO they could capture Nice and possibly a bit further - but then the war would turn into a stalemate and trenching.

I was referring to Italian main claims at the peace table.
 
okay to address some points.....

EF... I said their "could" be a pause in the escalation...not " would" I still think its very real possibility.

the French had told the Russians that they would not have their support against A-H over this issue ( they have no strategic interests after all). They were unsuccessful in getting the British onside to mediate an early end to the conflict however ( probably because the British were already supporting the Greeks and Bulgarians even if not openly).

Kaiser Wilhelm had given Franz Ferdinand his assurances of support, but the High command had advised that they were not up to the task of the two front war envisioned by the current war plans

In short neither Germany or France are prepared for slugfest at this time...That does not mean escalation could not occur but both to my mind would be far more cautious than in 1914 in running the gauntlet to war.

It Will give the Kaiser a little room to manoeuver and reign in his genrerals to prosecute a war that is more in keeping with simply taking the heat of A-H in the East in Galicia while they crush Serbia and implement their Balkan objectives. I don't see the pause as being more than a few months, enough time for a redeployment of troops to support the Kaiser's objectives.

for A-H they have already assumed that War with Serbia means war with Russia and have planned accordingly.

Carol I has his secret treaty with the Triple alliance to be activated in case of Russian attack and he will be favourable to doing so, but aside from South Dobruja, there is not much for Roumania to gain. while Carol I is so disposed, his government is not. So they will probably remain initially out of the fray though Carol will see to it that right of transit through Roumania is denied the Russians. that will leave the Russians only a seaborne expedition to Varna as the only possible way of re-inforcing its Serb allies. More on this.

the facination with keeping Bulgaria and the Ottomans both a CP ally is is flawed on several levels....and unlikely.

the Serb / Bulgarian alliance deteriorated during the course of the initial campaigns...

The Bulgarians did not supply all the troops they had agreed to for the occupation of Vardar Macedonia.. Censors following the seige of Adrianople denied the contributions of the Serb forces present resulting claim and counter-claim by Serb and Bulgarian sources souring further the the Serb Bulgarian dynamic and culminating during the truce and talks resulting in the Treaty of London in the Bulgarians bluntly telling their Serb counterparts, that while they were expected to adhere to the the treaty line division as agreed in Vardar Macedonia they would not have Bulgarian support in their Adriatic claims. None of this can happen if you expect the Serbs to defy the A-H and Italian ultimatum.

Also Italy and the Ottomans are still fighting over the Dodecanese...so that is also a consideration. the Ottoman conflict with Italy is essentially concurrent with the Albanian revolt in early 1912 and the First Balkan war later that year in Sept/Oct. Italy and the Ottomans cannot co-operate easily at this juncture...though their combined naval assets should be enough to undo the Greek naval dominance of the Aegean and be the undoing of the Balkan league as it would then allow reinforcement and supply by sea to the Ottomans forces. The Greek Navy and the Greek seizure of Thessaloniki were key to the Balkan league victory.

so i propose the following...

the Albanian revolt occurs on schedule.....

the Ottomans agree to the Albanian nationlist demands. mid year...the 14 pts...and creation of the super Albanian vilayet based on the Vilayets of Monastir, Janina, Schkoder and Kosovo

Montenegro declares War on the Ottomans in October is it, or Sept...can't remember which, they are quickly joined By the Serbs, Bulgarians and Greeks as per their previously arranged agreements sponsored largely by the Russians and encouraged in the case of Bulgaria and Greece by Britain to counter Russian influence.

The Bulgarians in addition to the units supporting the Serb 2nd army deployed in the north to aid the Serb advance on Skopje deploy an additional 50,000 troops further south to advance on Strumica and thence on Stip and the Vardar River.

Following Kumanovo, Serb 2nd army is deployed to aid the siege of Adrianople. Bulgarian forces continue with remaining Serb forces towards Skopje and then Prilep

Leaving garrisons in Strumica and Stip the Bulgarian forces in the Vardar river advance south to Thessaloniki attempting to get there before the Greeks.

they do not win the race.... and have to content themselves with aiding the Greeks in seizing the city instead.

Following Prilip, Bulgarian forces invest Monastir while Serb forces turn west to central Albania.

In the east the campaign is slowed but the strategic and tactical advantages of the Bulgarians was such that that while the advance might be slowed a bit it probably won't change to any great degree....and so the Bulgarians reach the Catalca and Gallipoli lines. where they dig in for a protracted defense while they gather strength for an later assault on Constantinople should it be necessary. Thus skirmishing results and the Ottomans are not re-inforced because of the decisive action of the Greek navy in bottling the Ottomans in the Dardanelles. Adrianople falls and the Serb contribution is fully acknowledged by Bulgarian commanders ...further fostering an attitude of a common front among the participants regarding the Ottomans. January a truce is called to discuss a settlement...The A-H and Italians present their plan for the independent Albanian state and request the Serb and Montenegrin withdrawal

During this time the Young Turks stage a coup in the Ottoman empire and will shortly renew their offensive against the Bulgarians and Greeks.

The Serbs and Montenegrins are bolstered by signals from moscow of support against A_H and by Greece and Bulgaria for their claims in the northern Albanian viyalets and the Adriatic coast. They refuse to evacuate their troops.

At the end of January A-H declares war on Montenegro and Serbia, Italy on Serbia ( Queen Helen is a Montenegrin princess afterall ) the Russians follow suit in February by declaring war on A-H and Italy. they request the right to transit through Roumania and Bulgaria to the Serb theatre.

Carol I denies the request, without the concensus of his government, Roumania will remain neutral, though the King himself favours the A-H position feeling honour bound by his treaty with the Triple alliance.

the Greeks and Bulgarians have noted the distinction in the declarations of War. and with the Ottomans still hostile and no treaty to cease hostilities in place they are both still at war with the Ottomans and will need to continue to co-operate fully to bring that war to a definitve conclusion. to that end Bulgarian forces still still in Thessaloniki enacting the joint Bulgarian and Greek occupation, are withdrawn to the Strymon valley leaving the city to the Greeks but standing ready to assist if necessary. Bulgaria assures the Montenegrins and Serbs of their support but will not declare war until they have a signed peace treaty with the Ottomans. that secures their eastern frontier, they will funnel supplies both humanitarian and military to the Serb war effort though and open Varna to a Russian expedition if it can be mounted.

The Russians begin preparations for such and expedition in in Sevastopol hoping to land the troops in late spring to bolster the Serbs Southern flank.

the German high command tells the Kaiser that they need time to shift troops to the eastern theatre and pursue a Russia first strategy instead of the quick strike at France through Belgium...they advise that a DOW at this time would be premature and catch them unprepared in the east. (Both France and Germany are both more cautious) The Kaiser settles on a stern warning to Moscow not to let the situation escalate and to act to moderate the demands of the Serbs and Montenegrins. The Russians of course dismiss the warning and continue mobilization to march on Galicia where the A-H have dug in on a defensive line on the San river. the kaiser makes a speech roundly supporting the A-H and appealing for a sensible settlement.

transfers of war materials in support of A-H are authorized. German "volunteers" begin enlisting in the Austrian regiments to fight the Russians.

Without German DOW the French remain neutral but begin preparations for mobilization if the situation escalates....

lets see more to come but that s it for now....
 
Sacred selfishness for the win indeed!

I would tend to favor Serbia, if I were Italy. There's less friction between the two nations, and a successful Serbia isn't a threat for Italian goals, while a successful A-H is quite the obstacle.

But by favoring Serbia, you've potentially discredited your reason for joining the war.
 
okay to address some points.....

EF... I said their "could" be a pause in the escalation...not " would" I still think its very real possibility.

the French had told the Russians that they would not have their support against A-H over this issue ( they have no strategic interests after all). They were unsuccessful in getting the British onside to mediate an early end to the conflict however ( probably because the British were already supporting the Greeks and Bulgarians even if not openly).

Kaiser Wilhelm had given Franz Ferdinand his assurances of support, but the High command had advised that they were not up to the task of the two front war envisioned by the current war plans

In short neither Germany or France are prepared for slugfest at this time...That does not mean escalation could not occur but both to my mind would be far more cautious than in 1914 in running the gauntlet to war.

It Will give the Kaiser a little room to manoeuver and reign in his genrerals to prosecute a war that is more in keeping with simply taking the heat of A-H in the East in Galicia while they crush Serbia and implement their Balkan objectives. I don't see the pause as being more than a few months, enough time for a redeployment of troops to support the Kaiser's objectives.

for A-H they have already assumed that War with Serbia means war with Russia and have planned accordingly.

Carol I has his secret treaty with the Triple alliance to be activated in case of Russian attack and he will be favourable to doing so, but aside from South Dobruja, there is not much for Roumania to gain. while Carol I is so disposed, his government is not. So they will probably remain initially out of the fray though Carol will see to it that right of transit through Roumania is denied the Russians. that will leave the Russians only a seaborne expedition to Varna as the only possible way of re-inforcing its Serb allies. More on this.

the facination with keeping Bulgaria and the Ottomans both a CP ally is is flawed on several levels....and unlikely.

the Serb / Bulgarian alliance deteriorated during the course of the initial campaigns...

The Bulgarians did not supply all the troops they had agreed to for the occupation of Vardar Macedonia.. Censors following the seige of Adrianople denied the contributions of the Serb forces present resulting claim and counter-claim by Serb and Bulgarian sources souring further the the Serb Bulgarian dynamic and culminating during the truce and talks resulting in the Treaty of London in the Bulgarians bluntly telling their Serb counterparts, that while they were expected to adhere to the the treaty line division as agreed in Vardar Macedonia they would not have Bulgarian support in their Adriatic claims. None of this can happen if you expect the Serbs to defy the A-H and Italian ultimatum.

Also Italy and the Ottomans are still fighting over the Dodecanese...so that is also a consideration. the Ottoman conflict with Italy is essentially concurrent with the Albanian revolt in early 1912 and the First Balkan war later that year in Sept/Oct. Italy and the Ottomans cannot co-operate easily at this juncture...though their combined naval assets should be enough to undo the Greek naval dominance of the Aegean and be the undoing of the Balkan league as it would then allow reinforcement and supply by sea to the Ottomans forces. The Greek Navy and the Greek seizure of Thessaloniki were key to the Balkan league victory.

so i propose the following...

the Albanian revolt occurs on schedule.....

the Ottomans agree to the Albanian nationlist demands. mid year...the 14 pts...and creation of the super Albanian vilayet based on the Vilayets of Monastir, Janina, Schkoder and Kosovo

Montenegro declares War on the Ottomans in October is it, or Sept...can't remember which, they are quickly joined By the Serbs, Bulgarians and Greeks as per their previously arranged agreements sponsored largely by the Russians and encouraged in the case of Bulgaria and Greece by Britain to counter Russian influence.

The Bulgarians in addition to the units supporting the Serb 2nd army deployed in the north to aid the Serb advance on Skopje deploy an additional 50,000 troops further south to advance on Strumica and thence on Stip and the Vardar River.

Following Kumanovo, Serb 2nd army is deployed to aid the siege of Adrianople. Bulgarian forces continue with remaining Serb forces towards Skopje and then Prilep

Leaving garrisons in Strumica and Stip the Bulgarian forces in the Vardar river advance south to Thessaloniki attempting to get there before the Greeks.

they do not win the race.... and have to content themselves with aiding the Greeks in seizing the city instead.

Following Prilip, Bulgarian forces invest Monastir while Serb forces turn west to central Albania.

In the east the campaign is slowed but the strategic and tactical advantages of the Bulgarians was such that that while the advance might be slowed a bit it probably won't change to any great degree....and so the Bulgarians reach the Catalca and Gallipoli lines. where they dig in for a protracted defense while they gather strength for an later assault on Constantinople should it be necessary. Thus skirmishing results and the Ottomans are not re-inforced because of the decisive action of the Greek navy in bottling the Ottomans in the Dardanelles. Adrianople falls and the Serb contribution is fully acknowledged by Bulgarian commanders ...further fostering an attitude of a common front among the participants regarding the Ottomans. January a truce is called to discuss a settlement...The A-H and Italians present their plan for the independent Albanian state and request the Serb and Montenegrin withdrawal

During this time the Young Turks stage a coup in the Ottoman empire and will shortly renew their offensive against the Bulgarians and Greeks.

The Serbs and Montenegrins are bolstered by signals from moscow of support against A_H and by Greece and Bulgaria for their claims in the northern Albanian viyalets and the Adriatic coast. They refuse to evacuate their troops.

At the end of January A-H declares war on Montenegro and Serbia, Italy on Serbia ( Queen Helen is a Montenegrin princess afterall ) the Russians follow suit in February by declaring war on A-H and Italy. they request the right to transit through Roumania and Bulgaria to the Serb theatre.

Carol I denies the request, without the concensus of his government, Roumania will remain neutral, though the King himself favours the A-H position feeling honour bound by his treaty with the Triple alliance.

the Greeks and Bulgarians have noted the distinction in the declarations of War. and with the Ottomans still hostile and no treaty to cease hostilities in place they are both still at war with the Ottomans and will need to continue to co-operate fully to bring that war to a definitve conclusion. to that end Bulgarian forces still still in Thessaloniki enacting the joint Bulgarian and Greek occupation, are withdrawn to the Strymon valley leaving the city to the Greeks but standing ready to assist if necessary. Bulgaria assures the Montenegrins and Serbs of their support but will not declare war until they have a signed peace treaty with the Ottomans. that secures their eastern frontier, they will funnel supplies both humanitarian and military to the Serb war effort though and open Varna to a Russian expedition if it can be mounted.

The Russians begin preparations for such and expedition in in Sevastopol hoping to land the troops in late spring to bolster the Serbs Southern flank.

the German high command tells the Kaiser that they need time to shift troops to the eastern theatre and pursue a Russia first strategy instead of the quick strike at France through Belgium...they advise that a DOW at this time would be premature and catch them unprepared in the east. (Both France and Germany are both more cautious) The Kaiser settles on a stern warning to Moscow not to let the situation escalate and to act to moderate the demands of the Serbs and Montenegrins. The Russians of course dismiss the warning and continue mobilization to march on Galicia where the A-H have dug in on a defensive line on the San river. the kaiser makes a speech roundly supporting the A-H and appealing for a sensible settlement.

transfers of war materials in support of A-H are authorized. German "volunteers" begin enlisting in the Austrian regiments to fight the Russians.

Without German DOW the French remain neutral but begin preparations for mobilization if the situation escalates....

lets see more to come but that s it for now....

You forget that France is 'honor bound' to support Russia in the event of a war with Germany (which while in this TL doesn't currently look likely, the fact that volunteers from Germany are joining the Austro-Hungarian army to fight Russia would add complications...suppose the Russians learn that the Hapsburg armies they're fighting are composed partly of Germans NOT born in Austria Proper....but in the German Empire) France might not assist Russia against A-H, but should Russia declare war on Germany (keep in mind my 'what if' mentioned earlier), France will not hesitate to join in, for the sake of claiming their vengence for 1871.
 
Also, Bulgaria would have to launch a decisive assault on Constantinople (Istanbul) with the objective being to occupy the city and force the Sultan to sue for peace, before joining in any other war effort. BUT...if Bulgaria opts to claim Istanbul as their prize, this would likely cause a falling out with Greece, who sees Istanbul as theirs by right of the fact the Byzantine Empire was Greek, and Constantinople should be the capital of a revived Byzantine Greece. Unless Bulgaria is willing to trade Istanbul (which Greece wants) for Salonika (which Bulgaria wants), there will be a new conflict as soon as the ink on the Turkish treaty is dry.
 
Top