okay to address some points.....
EF... I said their "could" be a pause in the escalation...not " would" I still think its very real possibility.
the French had told the Russians that they would not have their support against A-H over this issue ( they have no strategic interests after all). They were unsuccessful in getting the British onside to mediate an early end to the conflict however ( probably because the British were already supporting the Greeks and Bulgarians even if not openly).
Kaiser Wilhelm had given Franz Ferdinand his assurances of support, but the High command had advised that they were not up to the task of the two front war envisioned by the current war plans
In short neither Germany or France are prepared for slugfest at this time...That does not mean escalation could not occur but both to my mind would be far more cautious than in 1914 in running the gauntlet to war.
It Will give the Kaiser a little room to manoeuver and reign in his genrerals to prosecute a war that is more in keeping with simply taking the heat of A-H in the East in Galicia while they crush Serbia and implement their Balkan objectives. I don't see the pause as being more than a few months, enough time for a redeployment of troops to support the Kaiser's objectives.
for A-H they have already assumed that War with Serbia means war with Russia and have planned accordingly.
Carol I has his secret treaty with the Triple alliance to be activated in case of Russian attack and he will be favourable to doing so, but aside from South Dobruja, there is not much for Roumania to gain. while Carol I is so disposed, his government is not. So they will probably remain initially out of the fray though Carol will see to it that right of transit through Roumania is denied the Russians. that will leave the Russians only a seaborne expedition to Varna as the only possible way of re-inforcing its Serb allies. More on this.
the facination with keeping Bulgaria and the Ottomans both a CP ally is is flawed on several levels....and unlikely.
the Serb / Bulgarian alliance deteriorated during the course of the initial campaigns...
The Bulgarians did not supply all the troops they had agreed to for the occupation of Vardar Macedonia.. Censors following the seige of Adrianople denied the contributions of the Serb forces present resulting claim and counter-claim by Serb and Bulgarian sources souring further the the Serb Bulgarian dynamic and culminating during the truce and talks resulting in the Treaty of London in the Bulgarians bluntly telling their Serb counterparts, that while they were expected to adhere to the the treaty line division as agreed in Vardar Macedonia they would not have Bulgarian support in their Adriatic claims. None of this can happen if you expect the Serbs to defy the A-H and Italian ultimatum.
Also Italy and the Ottomans are still fighting over the Dodecanese...so that is also a consideration. the Ottoman conflict with Italy is essentially concurrent with the Albanian revolt in early 1912 and the First Balkan war later that year in Sept/Oct. Italy and the Ottomans cannot co-operate easily at this juncture...though their combined naval assets should be enough to undo the Greek naval dominance of the Aegean and be the undoing of the Balkan league as it would then allow reinforcement and supply by sea to the Ottomans forces. The Greek Navy and the Greek seizure of Thessaloniki were key to the Balkan league victory.
so i propose the following...
the Albanian revolt occurs on schedule.....
the Ottomans agree to the Albanian nationlist demands. mid year...the 14 pts...and creation of the super Albanian vilayet based on the Vilayets of Monastir, Janina, Schkoder and Kosovo
Montenegro declares War on the Ottomans in October is it, or Sept...can't remember which, they are quickly joined By the Serbs, Bulgarians and Greeks as per their previously arranged agreements sponsored largely by the Russians and encouraged in the case of Bulgaria and Greece by Britain to counter Russian influence.
The Bulgarians in addition to the units supporting the Serb 2nd army deployed in the north to aid the Serb advance on Skopje deploy an additional 50,000 troops further south to advance on Strumica and thence on Stip and the Vardar River.
Following Kumanovo, Serb 2nd army is deployed to aid the siege of Adrianople. Bulgarian forces continue with remaining Serb forces towards Skopje and then Prilep
Leaving garrisons in Strumica and Stip the Bulgarian forces in the Vardar river advance south to Thessaloniki attempting to get there before the Greeks.
they do not win the race.... and have to content themselves with aiding the Greeks in seizing the city instead.
Following Prilip, Bulgarian forces invest Monastir while Serb forces turn west to central Albania.
In the east the campaign is slowed but the strategic and tactical advantages of the Bulgarians was such that that while the advance might be slowed a bit it probably won't change to any great degree....and so the Bulgarians reach the Catalca and Gallipoli lines. where they dig in for a protracted defense while they gather strength for an later assault on Constantinople should it be necessary. Thus skirmishing results and the Ottomans are not re-inforced because of the decisive action of the Greek navy in bottling the Ottomans in the Dardanelles. Adrianople falls and the Serb contribution is fully acknowledged by Bulgarian commanders ...further fostering an attitude of a common front among the participants regarding the Ottomans. January a truce is called to discuss a settlement...The A-H and Italians present their plan for the independent Albanian state and request the Serb and Montenegrin withdrawal
During this time the Young Turks stage a coup in the Ottoman empire and will shortly renew their offensive against the Bulgarians and Greeks.
The Serbs and Montenegrins are bolstered by signals from moscow of support against A_H and by Greece and Bulgaria for their claims in the northern Albanian viyalets and the Adriatic coast. They refuse to evacuate their troops.
At the end of January A-H declares war on Montenegro and Serbia, Italy on Serbia ( Queen Helen is a Montenegrin princess afterall ) the Russians follow suit in February by declaring war on A-H and Italy. they request the right to transit through Roumania and Bulgaria to the Serb theatre.
Carol I denies the request, without the concensus of his government, Roumania will remain neutral, though the King himself favours the A-H position feeling honour bound by his treaty with the Triple alliance.
the Greeks and Bulgarians have noted the distinction in the declarations of War. and with the Ottomans still hostile and no treaty to cease hostilities in place they are both still at war with the Ottomans and will need to continue to co-operate fully to bring that war to a definitve conclusion. to that end Bulgarian forces still still in Thessaloniki enacting the joint Bulgarian and Greek occupation, are withdrawn to the Strymon valley leaving the city to the Greeks but standing ready to assist if necessary. Bulgaria assures the Montenegrins and Serbs of their support but will not declare war until they have a signed peace treaty with the Ottomans. that secures their eastern frontier, they will funnel supplies both humanitarian and military to the Serb war effort though and open Varna to a Russian expedition if it can be mounted.
The Russians begin preparations for such and expedition in in Sevastopol hoping to land the troops in late spring to bolster the Serbs Southern flank.
the German high command tells the Kaiser that they need time to shift troops to the eastern theatre and pursue a Russia first strategy instead of the quick strike at France through Belgium...they advise that a DOW at this time would be premature and catch them unprepared in the east. (Both France and Germany are both more cautious) The Kaiser settles on a stern warning to Moscow not to let the situation escalate and to act to moderate the demands of the Serbs and Montenegrins. The Russians of course dismiss the warning and continue mobilization to march on Galicia where the A-H have dug in on a defensive line on the San river. the kaiser makes a speech roundly supporting the A-H and appealing for a sensible settlement.
transfers of war materials in support of A-H are authorized. German "volunteers" begin enlisting in the Austrian regiments to fight the Russians.
Without German DOW the French remain neutral but begin preparations for mobilization if the situation escalates....
lets see more to come but that s it for now....