What If: the Finnish Civil War ended in a stalemate rather than total victory?

[IN_4659]

Imagine if the war between the Finnish Reds and Whites ended in a stalemate between the two. I believe the most likely ending in this case would be a division of the country, similar to North and South Korea.

What would happen to both sides as a result? I'm certain that the Republic of Finland would be made in the North, but what about a Red Finland in the South? Would it continue to be around today? Would it have drawn close ties to the Soviet Union? What would happen?

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

I have doubts that the North would be able to survive on it's own longterm. Stalin would've certainly conquered the Red South and then move on to the vulnerable North. It wouldn't be easy to keep Finland under the Russian boot, but we all know what vile actions Stalin is capable of doing. After the Soviet Union collapses, Finland would quickly emerge as an independent nation and potentially even gain some new territory, depending on how it was administered in the Soviet era.

 

[DrakonFin]

A stalemate is unlikely. 1918 Finland has a small population and it is a country with very limited resources all around. Without steady foreign assistance for both sides, either the Whites or the Reds would likely overcome the other in a couple of years at most.

So, I guess what I am saying that is that the Finnish civil war could only end in a stalemate if it became a full-on proxy war with bigger countries supporting both sides with equal amounts of different relevant resources. Otherwise, the country is too small for a "two state solution".

 

[kham_coc]

I have doubts that the North would be able to survive on it's own longterm. Stalin would've certainly conquered the Red South and then move on to the vulnerable North. It wouldn't be easy to keep Finland under the Russian boot, but we all know what vile actions Stalin is capable of doing. After the Soviet Union collapses, Finland would quickly emerge as an independent nation and potentially even gain some new territory, depending on how it was administered in the Soviet era.

If there is a viable communist state, I doubt Stalin would invade - he would simply give them weapons to conquer the North and keep them around as a satellite.

 

[Lalli]

If there is a viable communist state, I doubt Stalin would invade - he would simply give them weapons to conquer the North and keep them around as a satellite.

It would be really hard create viable Southern Finland at least with these frontlines what was during height of the war.

Problem was that South Finland has not much of resources and northerners have most of farming land. Southerners would have lot of industry (probably majority of Finnish industry) but their defense lines would are really horrible. You can't form natural defense line almost anywhere. And many important cities are too close of border. Like DrakonFin said Red Finland probably wouldn't last few years longer. And Reds have not capacities expand their borders much more northward.

 

[kham_coc]

I agree, its just that if there is a real live finish red state to support, Stalin would support that (especially in the 1920s when the ussr is still smarting).
But I agree a stalemate is unlikely.