What if the chinese empire survived?

[Gukpard]

The Chinese Empire I'm talking about is the Yuan Shikai one

I'm not a expert on chinese history, but what I found on wikipedia about the empire says that "the Hongxian Emperor was opposed by not only the revolutionaries, but far more importantly by his subordinate military commanders, who believed that Yuan's assumption of the monarchy would allow him to rule without depending on the support of the military."

And thus the army rebelled and made the national protection war

What if Yuan Shikai had assured to the army that they would have a role in the government, maybe even giving 25% of the parliament chairs to military personnel, what would be the short time and the long time effects of a surviving chinese empire?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Similar problems as OTL. There would still be some fragmentation of authority, lots of corruption to deal with, traditionalists obstructing progress, leaders more concerned with power politcs and their position than the overall national good. Certainly things would be better than the warlord years and the defacto civil war of the KMT takeover. The big change would come in the late 1930s. Would the empire appear strong enough to discourage Japanese attack? If the Japanese attacked would the Imperial forces be able to resist better than the KMT of 1937?

 

[thezerech]

Similar problems as OTL. There would still be some fragmentation of authority, lots of corruption to deal with, traditionalists obstructing progress, leaders more concerned with power politcs and their position than the overall national good. Certainly things would be better than the warlord years and the defacto civil war of the KMT takeover. The big change would come in the late 1930s. Would the empire appear strong enough to discourage Japanese attack? If the Japanese attacked would the Imperial forces be able to resist better than the KMT of 1937?

I would guess so, if Yuan Shikai is a military man with any luck he'll build up the military with new military formations more personally loyal to him. Hopefully these new formations would be equipped with modern tech.

Assuming Shikai manages to hold together China and try and modernize I doubt he'll be significantly more corrupt than the KMT and with things being more stable China will be doing much better. Perhaps Shikai can compromise with the KMT too?

If Shikai's Empire can stay together until the 30s we have an interesting situation. Shikai himself died IOTL in 1916 so I don't see him lasting that long. His son Yuan Keding would have succeeded him. He was educated in the West and spoke English and German, since he was fairly non political until his death in the PRC in the 50s, we can only imagine what he would have done which is far more fun! Keding was also close friends with Wang Jingwei, who probably would have become leader of the Imperial Government under the Emperor IMO.

 

[Gukpard]

If Shikai's Empire can stay together until the 30s we have an interesting situation. Shikai himself died IOTL in 1916 so I don't see him lasting that long. His son Yuan Keding would have succeeded him. He was educated in the West and spoke English and German, since he was fairly non political until his death in the PRC in the 50s, we can only imagine what he would have done which is far more fun! Keding was also close friends with Wang Jingwei, who probably would have become leader of the Imperial Government under the Emperor IMO.

Keding could be a good emperor just because of that, he wasn't very envolved into politics, so he could have passed more power to the military and the parliament and blame them when they fail, and so it would be harder (but not impossible) for him to alienate his support as his father had

 

[thezerech]

Keding could be a good emperor just because of that, he wasn't very envolved into politics, so he could have passed more power to the military and the parliament and blame them when they fail, and so it would be harder (but not impossible) for him to alienate his support as his father had

Not to mention he would have had some competent people around him. He seemed smart enough and not egotistical enough to be a uniting figure for a confused and unstable China. Or at least he could have been, and if some Sinophile who would be more knowledgeable than me on this were to write a TL around it, I'm sure it would be very interesting.

 

[Gukpard]

Not to mention he would have had some competent people around him. He seemed smart enough and not egotistical enough to be a uniting figure for a confused and unstable China. Or at least he could have been, and if some Sinophile who would be more knowledgeable than me on this were to write a TL around it, I'm sure it would be very interesting.

Me too, but I don't have the knowledge to write such a TL...

How oportune would be if a expert on china watched this thread and made a TL about the chinese empire surviving...

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

That is an awesome flag.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Is Yuan Keding really the solution for a surviving Yao Dynasty? It's obvious Yuan Shikai's empire will face a lot of the chaos of the post-Qing years.

Would be interesting to see Chinese culture TTL.

 

[thezerech]

Is Yuan Keding really the solution for a surviving Yao Dynasty? It's obvious Yuan Shikai's empire will face a lot of the chaos of the post-Qing years.

Would be interesting to see Chinese culture TTL.

I mean, Keding is the heir. Wang Jingwei seems more the solution. Jingwei was Keding's best friends.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I mean, Keding is the heir. Wang Jingwei seems more the solution. Jingwei was Keding's best friends.

So Yuan Keding as the Emperor, Wang Jingwei as the Premier.

 

[Gukpard]

So Yuan Keding as the Emperor, Wang Jingwei as the Premier.

If Jingwei don't become a fascist as OTL, he could be a good prime minister

 

[thezerech]

If Jingwei don't become a fascist as OTL, he could be a good prime minister

I think you have that backwards. He'd be more fun as a Fascist. Wouldn't it be cool to see a Fascistic Imperial China modernizing at breakneck speed to take down the old rival of Japan! Two fanatical asian armies duking it out over the Manchurian plains! Both fighting for their holy emperors! Germany supporting China and Great Britain the Japanese! This could get real interesting, I mean really interesting.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Interesting in the Chinese sense, of course. And it isn't like fascist(-esque) China could be any worse than what China had OTL in the 20s or 30s or during the years of Mao's worst excesses.

 

[Gukpard]

Interesting in the Chinese sense, of course. And it isn't like fascist(-esque) China could be any worse than what China had OTL in the 20s or 30s or during the years of Mao's worst excesses.

Well,a t least a fascist china would have better uniforms, but for sanity reasons it is better to keep Jingwei as a non fascist

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

Well,a t least a fascist china would have better uniforms, but for sanity reasons it is better to keep Jingwei as a non fascist

I agree. And to mix things up a bit, let's have an executive monarchy. Meaning more like the US, but with the Emperor and Premier having roughly equal power. And there's a Senate and House of Representatives. Plus a Supreme Court.

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

And there are elections for The Premier of course.

 

[Gukpard]

And there are elections for The Premier of course.

That's a heresy, the monarchy should be like the Russian, the german and the japanese one, the Emperor shall appoint the Prime minister
I don't found any internet copy of the constitution of the chiensee empire (they probably didn't had one because the empire fell so fast), but the idea of a complete british like monarchy at the time with a figurehead emperor isn't very realistic, even more with Yuan Shikai, a former army officer in power

 

[thezerech]

That's a heresy, the monarchy should be like the Russian, the german and the japanese one, the Emperor shall appoint the Prime minister
I don't found any internet copy of the constitution of the chiensee empire (they probably didn't had one because the empire fell so fast), but the idea of a complete british like monarchy at the time with a figurehead emperor isn't very realistic, even more with Yuan Shikai, a former army officer in power

I definitely agree with that assessment. Since Keding was educated in Germany lets say the position is Chancellor. Similar to Imperial Germany.

I imagine modernization and reform will be a priority once Yuan Shikai dies.

 

[Gukpard]

I imagine modernization and reform will be a priority once Yuan Shikai dies.

It all depends of how WWI goes too, Keding could join the central powers after the surrender of Russia and succesfully take weiwai and hong kong from the british, and maybe french indochina, this could be enought to allow germany to win the war and consolidate the german influence in China

 

[Grammar Kaiser]

That's a heresy, the monarchy should be like the Russian, the german and the japanese one, the Emperor shall appoint the Prime minister
I don't found any internet copy of the constitution of the chiensee empire (they probably didn't had one because the empire fell so fast), but the idea of a complete british like monarchy at the time with a figurehead emperor isn't very realistic, even more with Yuan Shikai, a former army officer in power

The Emperor would have roughly equal power with the Premier, not less. Like if America had a powerful monarchy but was otherwise exactly the same as the current government. Premier just elected the emperor is not. That is the only difference between them.