What if the Chinese Coup of 1898 never happens?

Let's say it fails, or the reform supporters are too powerful for the conservatives of China to regain power. Will such reforms be able to save the Qing Monarchy wholly? Prolonging it by only a few more years? Will they inspire revolts that might topple the dynasty a prematurely? More importantly, will such reforms work at all? Is there any chance that they might look like Mao's reforms, including the massive loss of life?
 
At the very least, the Boxer Rebellion won't be supported by the state, and we won't have the Eight-Nations Alliance and the whole Beijing debacle. However, I don't think the Boxers can overthrow the Qing. Either way, the Qing demise could come at the same time it did historically.
 
At the very least, the Boxer Rebellion won't be supported by the state, and we won't have the Eight-Nations Alliance and the whole Beijing debacle. However, I don't think the Boxers can overthrow the Qing. Either way, the Qing demise could come at the same time it did historically.

Can you explain why you think the Qing would fall at the same time?

According to what I've read, the coup was a response to rumors that the Chinese intend, through diplomacy, to create a federation with China in which fiscal and military powers would be shared. This angered many in the court and created a conservative majority to support the coup. So maybe the coup could be avoided by somewhat removing this Japanese ambition for a federation over China?
 
Can you explain why you think the Qing would fall at the same time?

According to what I've read, the coup was a response to rumors that the Chinese intend, through diplomacy, to create a federation with China in which fiscal and military powers would be shared. This angered many in the court and created a conservative majority to support the coup. So maybe the coup could be avoided by somewhat removing this Japanese ambition for a federation over China?
I predict that the Qing would fall at about the same time because it didn't have popular support from the people as a whole. I mean, it's not like I have polls to backup my assertion, but the quick fall of the Qing in 1911 shows that the structure was very, very weak. That's not to say it had no support, but didn't have enough legitimacy to continue for a long while. Even the most reformist plans take time, and while a quicker move to, say, constitutional monarchy might assuage intellectuals, it's not going to convince the peasant-in-the-village to throw his weight behind the monarchy.

As for the rumors: perhaps hearing these rumors was the reason behind the coup. However, it wasn't in the actual plan for the Hundred Days Reform. Yes, it is true that Kang Youwei said he wanted the Guangxu Emperor to be like the Meiji Emperor, but he also said he wanted the Guangxu Emperor to be like Peter the Great. A federation was never part of the actual plan, though Kang's ideal Chinese government was so similar to the Japanese government that it would arguably have been a mirror image, while other officials wanted a Sino-Japanese alliance.
 
I am not at all surprised that British and other diplomats on the scene were coming up with seemingly crazy plans wiithout the knowledge or backing of their governments, but which ensnared various influential Chinese - exactly the same thing happened in the run-up to the fall of the Shogunate.

IMHO the Reformers needed to get more bloody, kill the Empress etc so that the potential for a reactionary restoration was drastically lessened. Of course, the people who emerged as leaders were not really of this type

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I predict that the Qing would fall at about the same time because it didn't have popular support from the people as a whole. I mean, it's not like I have polls to backup my assertion, but the quick fall of the Qing in 1911 shows that the structure was very, very weak. That's not to say it had no support, but didn't have enough legitimacy to continue for a long while. Even the most reformist plans take time, and while a quicker move to, say, constitutional monarchy might assuage intellectuals, it's not going to convince the peasant-in-the-village to throw his weight behind the monarchy.

But the peasants in the village had little to no involvement in the 1911 Revolution either.

Also, you can't ignore the aftermath of the Boexr Rebellion; it made clear that China had become a joke, and that the Qing couldn't fix it.
 
But the peasants in the village had little to no involvement in the 1911 Revolution either.

Also, you can't ignore the aftermath of the Boexr Rebellion; it made clear that China had become a joke, and that the Qing couldn't fix it.

Yes, I made a mistake there. The Xinhai Revolution was not a peasant uprising. However, the average peasant didn't support the revolution either, which presumably would have affected how the events of 1911 played out in this timeline.

I didn't mention the Boxer Rebellion, which didn't become a major force until after the POD anyways.
 
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