Niall Ferguson thinks that a German victory in WWI would have saved millions of
lives.
Whether there is any merit to this or not, I don't know. But it's interesting to consider anyway.
The “myths” of World War I that Ferguson attacked, with his counter-arguments in parentheticals, are:
That Germany was a highly militarist country before 1914 (Ferguson claims Germany was Europe’s most anti-militarist country)[24]
That naval challenges mounted by Germany drove Britain into informal alliances with France and Russia before 1914 (Ferguson claims the British were driven into alliances with France and Russia as a form of appeasement due to the strength of those nations, and an Anglo-German alliance failed to materialize due to German weakness)[25]
That British foreign policy was driven by legitimate fears of Germany (Ferguson claims Germany posed no threat to Britain before 1914, and that all British fears of Germany were due to irrational anti-German prejudices) [26]
That the pre-1914 arms race was consuming ever larger portions of national budgets at an unsustainable rate (Ferguson claims that the only limitations on more military spending before 1914 were political, not economic)[27]
That World War I was, as Fritz Fischer claimed, a war of aggression on the part of Germany that necessitated British involvement to stop Germany from conquering Europe (Ferguson claims that if Germany had been victorious, something like the European Union would have been created in 1914, and that it would have been for the best if Britain had chosen to opt out of war in 1914)[28]
That most people were happy with the outbreak of war in 1914 (Ferguson claims that most Europeans were saddened by the coming of war) [29]
That propaganda was successful in making men wish to fight (Ferguson argues the opposite)[30]
That the Allies made the best use of their economic resources (Ferguson argues that the Allies “squandered” their economic resources) [31]
That the British and the French had the better armies (Ferguson claims the German Army was superior)[32]
That the Allies were more efficient at killing Germans (Ferguson argues that the Germans were more efficient at killing the Allies)[33]
That most soldiers hated fighting in the war (Ferguson argues most soldiers fought more or less willingly)[34]
That the British treated German prisoners of war well (Ferguson argues the British routinely killed German POWS)[35]
That Germany was faced with reparations after 1921 that could not be paid except at ruinous economic cost (Ferguson argues that Germany could easily have paid reparations had there been the political will)[36]
He is partially correct, and a lot of his points look like trolling to me, so i will skip those:
1) Prussia was the most militaristic, but Prussia was just a part of Germany. Germany spent less per capita than France. France was probably the most militaristic of the main powers. A-H was the least militaristic.
2) The Naval challenge did drive the UK to the French arms, but this was an UK choice. The Naval challenge made the budgets so high, the UK no longer could do splendid isolationism. It could have chose Germany or a collection of smaller powers, but it chose France. All paths had unpleasant side effects for the UK. To be an ally with Germany would have involved heavily supporting Germany in Africa, and may well have still brought the UK into any general conflict.
3) Based on GDP, the limitations were more political than economic, but not totally either one. Germany spend around 2/3 of funding on non-military spending, so Germany could have easily had 10 full armies not 8, and a navy as big as the UK was in OTL. France was a lot more resource constrained.
4) I guess in the UK the British army is consider better than the German army. This was not true. With regiment of equal size and with equal supply levels, the Germans would win. The French army was also better than the British. Britain was a Naval not a land power, and it showed in the war, especially in the early part of the war.
A lot of the rest is trolling. For example, many soldiers wanted to fight, many did not. A soldier could start with one belief at the beginning and have the opposite by the end of the war. Trolling is a great way to sell books.