What if the Cavite Mutineers won Filipino independence in 1872?

Hmmm - IMO this is not a clear-cut "subjugated nations of Asia rise to claim their freedom". It is the Westernised elite - professing an European creed at that and Spanish speaking - revolting against the metropole. Much more like Latin America or - God help us - the USA.

Is that any worse than the Westernized clique of Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek establishing the Republic of China on nativized Western concepts? Or Japan's sending young men to Europe, to learn the culture of the Western world? Or even India's western-educated elite being at the forefront of the establishment of India and Pakistan?

It's never really that clear-cut. Sure, Spanish was spoken by the Criollos, but they spoke Tagalog too, and Ilocano, and Cebuano, and all the other myriad tongues spoken on these isles.

Three choices: The descendants of Sebastián Elcano, the direct descendants of Rajah Sulayman or the, uh... well, "interesting" Tagean-Tallano clan.

We could go full Napoleon and have some strongman establish himself as emperor, like with Novales. :p

That is why the revolt will never succeed in the first place.

And yet it did. The only problem was the Americans immediately turning on our country and making it a colony because of Teddy Roosevelt having a hard-on for Manifest Destiny.
 
And yet it did. The only problem was the Americans immediately turning on our country and making it a colony because of Teddy Roosevelt having a hard-on for Manifest Destiny.
Andres Bonifacio sided with the natives not the Spanish elite which makes his revolt a nativist revolt, having Emilio Aguinaldo take charge shifted the sympathy to the Americans.
 

raharris1973

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So Bonifacio might have called his state "Katagalugan".

What if Novales' revolt in 1823 succeeded and he made himself Emperor, would he call his empire "Katagalugan"?
 
So Bonifacio might have called his state "Katagalugan".

What if Novales' revolt in 1823 succeeded and he made himself Emperor, would he call his empire "Katagalugan"?

I assume he'd just declare it the Empire of the Philippines. He was a Criollo, so Philippines is the most likely name.
 

raharris1973

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Did Novales have a better shot at winning than the Cavite mutineers 50 years later?

If the Philippines do break away in 1823 as their own empire, are they going to be safer from international predation than any state the Cavite mutineers try to set up in the 1870s?
 
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TruthfulPanda

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If the Philippines do break away in 1823 as their own empire, are they going to be safer from international predation than any state the Cavite mutineers try to set up in the 1870s?
1823 is still the age of sail. In 1870s you have steamers transporting armies. And the telegraph.
In 1823 the Phillippines have at least a year before anybody comes knocking. Not that there would had been many knockers - besides this being an internal Spanish affair, the UK would not be interested and France was still getting its shit together. Also, as evidenced by South America, the UK could had sympathised with the rebels. Netherlands? Too weak? USA - too weak?
1872 is also a quite safe period - UK - probably disinterested. Netherlands? Too small/weak? France - just beaten. Italy and Germany - have just formed. Japan - has just began to westernise. USA - weak? Busy internally? Spain - Civil War.
So, foreign intervention at both points seems to be rather unlikely.
 
Did Novales have a better shot at winning than the Cavity mutineers 50 years later?

If the Philippines do break away in 1823 as their own empire, are they going to be safer from international predation than any state the Cavite mutineers try to set up in the 1870s?

The British would likely treat them as the same way they did to Latin America: markets to dump their products on. Otherwise they'd be fine and have a few decades to modernize and keep other Europeans and/or the United States at bay. Perhaps even do some expansion on its own towards Formosa and beyond...
 

raharris1973

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The British would likely treat them as the same way they did to Latin America: markets to dump their products on. Otherwise they'd be fine and have a few decades to modernize and keep other Europeans and/or the United States at bay. Perhaps even do some expansion on its own towards Formosa and beyond...

Expansion to Taiwan would be gutsy move in either period and risky. But I suppose a Novales empire independent from the 20s could try a grab for Formosa during the Taiping rebellion and 2nd opium war was f Allied to Britain and France.

A successful independence by the Cavite creeps ( a pod many find unlikely ) could lead to a Filipino Formosa only if the Filipinos become partners in aggression with Japan against China and get away with it.
 
Expansion to Taiwan would be gutsy move in either period and risky. But I suppose a Novales empire independent from the 20s could try a grab for Formosa during the Taiping rebellion and 2nd opium war was f Allied to Britain and France.

A successful independence by the Cavite creeps ( a pod many find unlikely ) could lead to a Filipino Formosa only if the Filipinos become partners in aggression with Japan against China and get away with it.

It's not that particularly gutsy since Formosa would be just a relative short distance from the Philippines; I could see a Novales-led Filipino Empire even seek to acquire the remainder of the Spanish East Indies at a much later date, whether through purchasing it or declaring war (may need the assistance of France and Britain if they haven't already taken them during independence). There's also possibility of attacking Brunei and seizing some of its land but given OTL issues with Philippines' Muslim minority, it may not be wise to add even more to the country.
 

TruthfulPanda

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Attacking Brunei in the 1820s need not be for conquest - it would be to crush the slavers and thus to gain respite from piracy.
 

raharris1973

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fighting China is always a bit gutsy, at least in periods when it's not wracked by civil war or harried by multiple predators.

establishing heavy mercantile influence is another story and can be tried at almost any point.
 
fighting China is always a bit gutsy, at least in periods when it's not wracked by civil war or harried by multiple predators.

establishing heavy mercantile influence is another story and can be tried at almost any point.

Luckily the 19th century is rebellion followed by civil war followed by another rebellion. It's the perfect opportunity to take what was seen as a peripheral province by the Qing.
 
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