What if the Bulgars and Magyars never migrated to Europe

What if the Magyar and Bulgar peoples never migrated to Central Europe and the Balkans? No matter what, the Ottomans would eventually take all of the Balkans and advance up to the gates of Vienna. But what would happen while Russia is pouncing on the Ottomans and Balkan fever rises?
 
What if the Magyar and Bulgar peoples never migrated to Central Europe and the Balkans? No matter what, the Ottomans would eventually take all of the Balkans and advance up to the gates of Vienna. But what would happen while Russia is pouncing on the Ottomans and Balkan fever rises?
...Ottomans? They would surely be butterflied.

Heck Makizert would had been. This is a completly different world.
 
Your POD is so far in advance, it doesn't make sense to talk about events around 800+ years later (Bulgar invasion of Byzantium around AD680 [Hungarian invasion would not be until AD890] to Siege of Vienna in AD1520). You need to fill in everything that would have happened between that time.

You are assuming that the Ottomans - or any Turks - would still conquer the Byzantines even though they would never be threatened by the Bulgars. The wars against the Bulgars consumed a lot of Byzantine strength and time. If they never happened, all of that could be expended against the Arabs and later the Turks, not to mention the increased tax base because of continuing prosperity of a peaceful Balkan hinterland.

Without the Hungarians, the Eastern Roman Empire basically borders the new "Western" Holy Roman Empire of the Germans. With nobody between them, increased trade along the Danube and safer passage strengthens ties that were already ongoing between the Holy Roman Emperors and Constantinople.

It's entirely possible that the Byzatine Empire will never fall. You have to ask yourself what would happen if someone like Basil the Bulgar-Slayer concentrated solely on his Muslim enemies. Would the Byzantines have reconquered Syria and Palestine by themselves? So many butterflies before the Seljuk Turks even reach Anatolia, much less how everything would happen once Turks started attacking the Byzantines.
 
Considering that we have records of Proto-Bulgar tribes during the migration period of the 4th century, and the first Bulgar state existed in the 7th, we're looking at a completely different world here - there's absolutely no reason to assume that the Turks still move into Anatolia, or press into Eastern Europe at all as in OTL.
 
Sorry, but that is a silly notion. The Magyars entered Europe in the 8th or 9th c. when they crossed the Ural. The Bulgars may have been in Europe, especially the Pontic Steppes, for much longer, but they settled along the Lower Danube in the 7th century.

Osman announced the independence of his own small, "Ottoman", kingdom from the Seljuks in 1299. Even ignoring the Magyars, the non-presence of an Bulgarian state directly on Constantinople's doorsteps will change the History of the Eastern Roman Empire beyond all recognition. You cannot even claim that any polity of Oghuz Turkic-Speakers will occupy Asia Minor.

And since by your OP the Magyars and Bulgars do not simple disappear, they and their descendants will happily mix up anything we know about the history of the steppes. You have butterflied away Genghis Khan and his descendants as well, and with him nearly all of OTL's history of China, India, Russia and Persia after 1300-1500.

Some Turks will probably move westward and stay there, but which branch they will be (Kypchak?) and if they go mainly north of the Black Sea instead of south is completely unknowable.

Insisting on Ottomans under this circumstances sounds a lot like asking: "Well, if a revengeful Tarquinius Superbus had completely destroyed the city of Rome - whom would President Washington compare himself to instead of Cincinnatus?"
 
Best way to prevent the Bulgars and Magyars from migrating into Central Europe or the Balkans for that matter is for a stronger Khazarian Empire that actually wages war against Volga Bulgaria, but weak enough for the Magyars to actually make inroads.

Alternatively, could the Magyars become the dominant power in the steppes alongside the Bulgars?
 
Best way to prevent the Bulgars and Magyars from migrating into Central Europe or the Balkans for that matter is for a stronger Khazarian Empire that actually wages war against Volga Bulgaria, but weak enough for the Magyars to actually make inroads.

Alternatively, could the Magyars become the dominant power in the steppes alongside the Bulgars?

Could we perhaps see a god chance of magyar and bulgar states in OTL Russia along side the Khazars?
Any of this might mean a powder keg, flourishing societies, or perhaps different groups settling in the Balkans, such as the Avars, Cumans, Slavs, Sythians, rest of the Goths, or others
 
I was also thinking of further Slavic migration into the Caucasus, alongside the Magyars, Gepids and maybe other Finno-Ugric peoples. Maybe a Caucasian Sarbanian state? (basically either Caucasian Serbia or a Volga Serbia)
 
For all we know the fact that the Magyars and Bulgars did not migrate, could mean that many other groups that migrated in different directions could end up in the caucusus, Balkans, and Anatolia instead, possibly resulting in a bigger headache for the ERE or the Caliphate(s)
 
Charlemagne pretty much destroyed the Avar state and depopulated the area pretty badly, which set it up for encroachment from the Magyars. the Avars were already on the way out and interbreeding with the encircling Slavs, but they still had an identity and a presence until Charlemagne.
 
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