What if the British hadnt witheld the Ottoman Navy's two battleships?

Hashasheen

Banned
As seen above. the confiscation of the Osman the first and and the Reşadiye turned the public opinion which until then was divided between Pro British and Pro German elements.
 
As seen above. the confiscation of the Osman the first and and the Reşadiye turned the public opinion which until then was divided between Pro British and Pro German elements.
Hmm- unlikely. More likely they would have compensated the Ottomans for the ships, as they did with the Norwegian coastal battleships which were similarly requisitioned while being built (Bjørgvin and Nidaros, renamed Glatton and Gorgon). That would have somewhat ameliorated the effect on public opinion.

Had the sales gone ahead, I wonder what effect it would have in Greece if the British sold their Ottoman rivals battleships while confiscating their entire navy (which they already owned and were operating).
 
If Turkey were to stay neutral how much difference does this make to Russia. I presume that the Ottoman Empire would still not love Russia but if they allowed supplies through does it change anything?

The other thing is that there will not be the same Anglo French domination of the Arabian peninsular. Further there would be no "Balfour Declaration". I assume there would be fewer Jewish people moving to Palestine.
 

MrP

Banned
If Turkey were to stay neutral how much difference does this make to Russia. I presume that the Ottoman Empire would still not love Russia but if they allowed supplies through does it change anything?

The other thing is that there will not be the same Anglo French domination of the Arabian peninsular. Further there would be no "Balfour Declaration". I assume there would be fewer Jewish people moving to Palestine.

On the supply front, it's a bit iffy. The Anglo-French really have to ramp up home production for the Western Front, and won't have much spare ammo &c to send to the Russians. They planned to eventually, of course, but it'll make little difference for the first few years. Russian trade situation is much better, of course, and without G'poli, there's another half million men to throw at the W Front, assuming they aren't dropped in Salonika.
 
As seen above. the confiscation of the Osman the first and and the Reşadiye turned the public opinion which until then was divided between Pro British and Pro German elements.

The Young Turks that governed the OE were not divided into Pro-British and Pro-German elements, IIRC. They were strongly Pro-German, especially Enver Pasha.

I've always believed that the Turks were fence sitters until the Goeben, under Turkish colours, bombarded Russian ports. I think the Germans may have forced the Turks' hand.

I think it all comes down to timing. The Germans know that the Goeben and Breslau and pretty much written off if they were to steam to an Austrian port in the Adriatic. The British could still attempt to seize the ships at any point between Britain and the Dardanelles.
 

Hashasheen

Banned
The Young Turks that governed the OE were not divided into Pro-British and Pro-German elements, IIRC. They were strongly Pro-German, especially Enver Pasha.

I've always believed that the Turks were fence sitters until the Goeben, under Turkish colours, bombarded Russian ports. I think the Germans may have forced the Turks' hand.

I think it all comes down to timing. The Germans know that the Goeben and Breslau and pretty much written off if they were to steam to an Austrian port in the Adriatic. The British could still attempt to seize the ships at any point between Britain and the Dardanelles.
I believe that the Turkish Navy was strongly pro-British until the seizure of the ships. Or do I have my facts wrong?:)
 

Markus

Banned
I believe that the Turkish Navy was strongly pro-British until the seizure of the ships. Or do I have my facts wrong?:)

I read the same. Army: pro-German, Navy: pro-British

Given the advantages of a neutral or Entente Turkey I´d take the risk. Russia being able to im- and export freely has a much bigger effect than two hostile turkish BB.
 

MrP

Banned
I believe that the Turkish Navy was strongly pro-British until the seizure of the ships. Or do I have my facts wrong?:)

There's a British Naval Mission there, certainly. The RN was a bit worried about appearing partial in any conflict, though, hence the weird shenanigans (twice I've used that word today) during the war with Italy when the Turkish officers being trained by the RN wanted to get home. On that topic, you might enjoy this site.
 
I read the same. Army: pro-German, Navy: pro-British

Given the advantages of a neutral or Entente Turkey I´d take the risk. Russia being able to im- and export freely has a much bigger effect than two hostile turkish BB.

Which would make the military situation in Turkey very similar to that in Japan and even Siam.
 
The problem with this is that I don't see why the British would not have taken the Dreadnoughts...Churchill confiscated them for the same reason that he later confiscated the almost complete Chilean Dreadnought Almirante Latorre (and her un-named sister ship) - he was very worried in July 1914 about the ratio of British to German Dreadnoughts in the North Sea. Without a more favourable Dreadnought to Dreadnought ratio, I can't see the admiralty letting two powerful ships sail off into neutrality, or worse, potential hostility.

However strange I think it may look to us with hindsight - the Dreadnought ratios in the North Sea probably mattered more to Churchill more than did Turkish neutrality. He said so himself, iirc, even after the Turks went to war.
 

MrP

Banned
The problem with this is that I don't see why the British would not have taken the Dreadnoughts...Churchill confiscated them for the same reason that he later confiscated the almost complete Chilean Dreadnought Almirante Latorre (and her un-named sister ship) - he was very worried in July 1914 about the ratio of British to German Dreadnoughts in the North Sea. Without a more favourable Dreadnought to Dreadnought ratio, I can't see the admiralty letting two powerful ships sail off into neutrality, or worse, potential hostility.

However strange I think it may look to us with hindsight - the Dreadnought ratios in the North Sea probably mattered more to Churchill more than did Turkish neutrality. He said so himself, iirc, even after the Turks went to war.

Aye, the numbers were jolly close for a while. I decided to avoid it in PlC by shifting the dreadnought ordering and completion dates. So when war broke out, Churchill couldn't nab them.
 

Markus

Banned
Aye, the numbers were jolly close for a while. I decided to avoid it in PlC by shifting the dreadnought ordering and completion dates. So when war broke out, Churchill couldn't nab them.

:confused::confused::confused: The Britsh had decisively won the naval arms race. Their shipbuilding capacytiy was so much bigger Germany never stood a chance.

In 1914 the UK had 21 BB and 9 BC, plus 40 PDN. France had 4, zero and 18, Russia zero, zero and 8. Germany 14, 5 and 22, AH had 3, zero and 12.

That´s 25 BB, 9 BC and 66 PDN for the Entente vs. 17, 5 and 32 for the Central Powers.
 

MrP

Banned
:confused::confused::confused: The Britsh had decisively won the naval arms race. Their shipbuilding capacytiy was so much bigger Germany never stood a chance.

In 1914 the UK had 21 BB and 9 BC, plus 40 PDN. France had 4, zero and 18, Russia zero, zero and 8. Germany 14, 5 and 22, AH had 3, zero and 12.

That´s 25 BB, 9 BC and 66 PDN for the Entente vs. 17, 5 and 32 for the Central Powers.

There's a period in '14 when numbers are very close for a month or two. I don't have the details to hand, but I recall some bloke in Wargames Illustrated doing a scenario based on the conditions. RN still won, I think. Might have been when the battlecruisers were pottering about the Falklands, blasting away. I can't really recall offhand.
 

Markus

Banned
There's a period in '14 when numbers are very close for a month or two. I don't have the details to hand, but I recall some bloke in Wargames Illustrated doing a scenario based on the conditions. RN still won, I think. Might have been when the battlecruisers were pottering about the Falklands, blasting away. I can't really recall offhand.

With the two turkish ships delivered and Turkey still in the CP camp you get to 23 vs 19 BB once the war breaks out, but the pace of German shipbuilding slows down greatly, while Britains does not.
 

MrP

Banned
With the two turkish ships delivered and Turkey still in the CP camp you get to 23 vs 19 BB once the war breaks out, but the pace of German shipbuilding slows down greatly, while Britains does not.

I'm not arguing that GB was in any great danger, old man. I'm just recalling bits and bobs of the scenario. No idea which issue it was in, anyway, so I can't even give the chap's reasoning.
 
Robert K. Massie iirc (in Castles of Steel) says that in mid July 1914, the British had 24 Dreadnoughts/Dreadnought Battlecruisers in the North Sea. The Germans had 17.

This wasn't seen as a significant enough margin of superiority by the admiralty, even after the addition of Agincourt, Erin and the unfinished Canada - which was formerly the Almirante Latorre. Churchill and the Sea Lords were still nervous with the 26 to 17 superiority this gave them.

It's not about the mathematics of the Dreadnought arms race as a whole, it's about the Admiralty's paranoid perceptions of the Anglo-German Dreadnought ratio at the time they decided to swipe the Ottoman ships.
 
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Guys

Although in hindsight it seems strange I don't think it was too strange a judgement at the time. The question of security of the homeland and related sea-lines was vital as without that everything in lost. Given the size of the relative armies at the time it would be fatal. And naval strength, rightly or wrongly was measured primarily in dreadnoughts. Furthermore, given the uncertainties about actual numbers and the fact that a proportion of the fleet would be in refit at any time numbers are not as simple as they seem. There was the additional factor that Britain hadn't fought a naval war of any size since the Crimean so there was uncertainty about the relative quality of the two fleets. Imperial German had a reputation for efficiency and technological expertise. Have read that Jellicoe was concerned about rumours of new German ships under construction with 17" guns and there seemed to be a general concern that the German ships might prove better 1-1 than their RN equivalent.

In comparison the idea that either the Ottomans or Chile might take offence at Britain, the builder of the ships, might take them over in a national crisis, with extensive compensation offered to both nations may have seen fairly trivial. Possibly he should have been more aware of the national identity associated with the ships in Turkey given that they had been funded in part by national subscription. However, give how hard line the most pro-German elements of the Young Turks were, I doubt that it would have had any real effect on the outcome of events. Seizing the ships gave the pro-German elements a propaganda tool but probably wasn't decisive.

Steve
 
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