What if the British 1st Division recieved relief at Arnhem?

[The Militant One]

From Wikipedia

Operation Market Garden

(September 17, 1944–September 25, 1944) was an Allied military operation in World War II in the Netherlands and Germany. Through large-scale use of airborne forces, its tactical objectives were to secure a series of bridges over the main rivers of the German-occupied Netherlands to allow rapid advance by armored units. The strategic purpose was to allow an Allied crossing of the Rhine river, the last major natural barrier to an advance into Germany. The planned rapid advance from the Dutch-Belgian border into northern Germany, across the Maas (Meuse) and two arms of the Rhine (the Waal and the Lower Rhine), would have outflanked the Siegfried Line and made possible an encirclement of the Ruhr Area, Germany's industrial heartland.
The operation was initially successful with the capture of the Waal bridge at Nijmegen on September 20. But it was a failure overall since the planned Allied advance across the Rhine at Arnhem had to be abandoned. The British 1st Airborne Division did not secure the bridge at Arnhem, and although they managed to hold out near the bridge far longer than planned, the British XXX Corps failed to relieve them. The Rhine remained a barrier to the Allied advance until the offensives at Remagen, Oppenheim, Rees and Wesel in March 1945. Due to the Allied defeat at Arnhem, the north of the Netherlands could not be liberated before winter and the Hongerwinter ('Hungerwinter') took tens of thousands of lives, particularly in the cities of the Randstad area.

Military analysts at the time predicted that if the Operation was a complete success the war would have been over in a matter of months.

My question is, what if the British XXX Corps arrived and Arnhem could have been held and Operation Market Garden was a success, how would history play out?

 

[oudi14]

My first thought about this is a sort of mini-Verdun. If Horrocks can break thru all the way, and they hold at Arnhem, the Germans will throw everything they have at the salient, and the allies will respond in kind. There will be no quick breakout east onto the North German Plain as Montgomery had envisioned, and the war may still go on until spring. But with all of this, I believe the Bulge will probably be butterflied away. And the massive allied airfleet will horribly mangle the Germans surrounding the salient, so when they do break out, there won't be much between them and Berlin. Maybe they get there first.

 

[Shimbo]

I have a facsimile of the original end of operation planned positions of the British divisions. It shows the Guards Armoured on the Dutch coast, 52nd Lowland division below them (it was supposed to be flown into Deelan airfield after it was captured) and 43rd Wessex Division between them and Arnhem which was to be held by the 1st Parachute Division.

There is a dotted arrow pointing from the Guards Armoured's position towards Germany, presumably suggesting that would be the next line of advance.

From that map, it seems that the real aim of the operation was to cut off all the German troops in Holland, leading to a Falaise style rout/massacre.

So assuming that's what would have happened, a large number of German forces are trapped between the Allies and the Dutch Coast, a wholesale retreat starts. The forces holding the salient aren't strong enough to prevent them punching through in places, but the retreating German columns take a pounding from the air. The German 1st Parachute Army and II SS Panzer Corps are largely destroyed. Unable to consolidate their positions, the German Forces continue retreating before 21st Army Group, which advances into North Germany.

The strange thing to me, is that there doesn't seem to have been much of a plan for 'what next?' after a successful Market Garden. IMO it was based on the assumption that the Germans were finished and the main thing was to keep them on the run.

 

[Markus]

My first thought about this is a sort of mini-Verdun. If Horrocks can break thru all the way, and they hold at Arnhem, the Germans will throw everything they have at the salient,...

Best case outcome for the Allies: Strategic offensive, tactical defensive.
This is the most safe way to destroy the last german reserves: the Germans throw them right at the well prepared defences of the Brits who will cut them into pieces in no time.
It get´s a bit more time consuming, if the Germans stay on the defensive, but with all the reserves in the north, the allied center and south will face far less opposition ... and the Yanks will bitch about "slow" Monty and praise themselfes for being "faster". Just like in OTL.

 

[pompejus]

I have once heard that if the allies win at Market Garden, that there was a good chance they would overstretch their armies, which would only lengthen the war.

 

[bard32]

Good question. The Battle of Arnhem was called "A bridge too far" General
Browning. The British 1st Parachute Division was holding the bridge at Arnhem
for 9 days. XXX Corps was supposed to relieve it but was detained by the Germans on the road that became known as "Hell's Highway." If XXX Corps
had been able to reach Arnhem, then things might have turned out differently.
The Battle of the Bulge wouldn't have been necessary.

 

[Theodoric]

I also read, in a Ambrose book, IIRC, that if Market Garden didn't took place, Patton's army (nominally under British control, so no true US-wank) could've gone into Germany alot sooner and faster. Indeed, if it weren't for Market Garden, the main Allied problem during the Battle of the Bulge (namely over-stretched supply lines) would've been taken away.

Ofcourse, if Marker Garden did work, it would have really sped up the Allied advance alot more than anything Patton could do.

 

[Rodney]

I also read, in a Ambrose book, IIRC, that if Market Garden didn't took place, Patton's army (nominally under British control, so no true US-wank) could've gone into Germany alot sooner and faster. Indeed, if it weren't for Market Garden, the main Allied problem during the Battle of the Bulge (namely over-stretched supply lines) would've been taken away.

Ofcourse, if Marker Garden did work, it would have really sped up the Allied advance alot more than anything Patton could do.

No matter what the allies do in fall 1944 the problem of supplies still exists. The failure to capture an intact Channel Port or promptly clear the Scheldt to make Antwerp usable means supply problems persist as everything is trucked in from Normandy. The allies had to choose between supplying one advance, Patton's Third Army or Monty's Market Garden. Allied supply problems historically ceased when the Canadians cleared the Scheldt estuary.

 

[pompejus]

No matter what the allies do in fall 1944 the problem of supplies still exists. The failure to capture an intact Channel Port or promptly clear the Scheldt to make Antwerp usable means supply problems persist as everything is trucked in from Normandy. The allies had to choose between supplying one advance, Patton's Third Army or Monty's Market Garden. Allied supply problems historically ceased when the Canadians cleared the Scheldt estuary.

Maybe that would mean that western Netherlands will be liberated sooner so the allies can use the harbours. Maybe no hunger winter, that would be a good change.

 

[Theodoric]

That would've been a good change, but I don't think it would be feasible. It's even less accessable than the central and eastern Netherlands, and only a very rapid strike with airborne soldiers could prevent the Germans from blowing the bridges. In other words, that would've just moved it westward.

Also, there's even more bridges in the province of Zeeland, being a bunch of islands.

 

[The Militant One]

Here is a thought. If Market Garden was a success and the allies were able to sweep into Germany from the North, how would the Soviet push to the west play out? Would there even be an East Germany during the cold war?

 

[Shimbo]

Here is a thought. If Market Garden was a success and the allies were able to sweep into Germany from the North, how would the Soviet push to the west play out? Would there even be an East Germany during the cold war?

Where the occupation zones decided at the Tehran conference or at Yalta? If it was Yalta, then they may have varied somewhat if the Western Allies were further into Germany.

I would guess though that the Soviets were going to get some sort of occupation zone regardless of the final position of Allied forces, so there would be an East Germany of some sort.