What If The Brighton Bomb Is Discovered?

Hello all,
Just thought I'd ask this, in light of the recent Thatcher dies at Brighton thread. What if instead of the bomb exploding at the 1984 Tory party conference, it is discovered beforehand? In OTL the bomb killed a handful of Tory politicians and left Norman Tebbit's wife seriously injured, eventually leading to his resignation from Thatcher's cabinet.

So what if the bomb doesn't go off and Tebbit stays on? How much more influence does he have in the Thatcher government from 1984 to 1990? Does Heseltine's leadership challenge still happen and if so, does Tebbit's increased participation in the cabinet mean he's a credible alternative to major?

Discuss.
 
Tebbit would never be an alternative leader. He was way to much of a headkicker, great for a bit of verbal violence on Newsnight or at the Cabinet Table but not PM material. That said Tebbit staying in cabinet would significantly strengthen Maggie's position against her enemies possibly enabling her to cling on and loose in '92. Actually no Brighton Bomb, Tebbit staying in Cabinet and keeping Thatcher in power till '92 where she loses dumping Black Wednesday firmly in Labour's lap confirming the electorates worst suspicions about Labour and the economy enabling the Tories to come back in '97. I spy a Tory-wank :D
 
It would be a very interesting leadership election;

Heseltine would be helped by not having wielded the knife but would still be a very divisive choice, he would almost certainly have found something to resign over but if Thatcher has lead the Tories too defeat he might well be "vindicated" come the leadership election. That said his views on Europe means he would not have a happy reign.

Nigel Lawson as a big beast and successful Chancellor could well be in with a shot, especially with his appeal to the Right as a monetarist. If Thatcher goes ahead with the poll tax and he opposes it as OTL that could give him a further boost. However his health problems (very, very fat) means he probably isn't up to the job.

Geoffrey Howe can also be ruled out as despite being a "big beast" he is too old but if he did stand he could split the wet vote with Heseltine allowing someone else to get through.

Hurd would be a good compromise candidate but as in OTL he had the Eton problem and would probably be seen as too posh and not combative enough to be a leader of the opposition.

Major only became a Minister in '85, after the POD and didn't enter the Cabinet until '87 so with Tebbit still around and other butterflies he might well not have risen so fast and thus wouldn't be in play.

Michael Howard is probably too junior to be a player in '92 when the leadership election is held having been even less senior than Major at the POD but he could be in play if there is a change during the 92-97 Parliament.

Ken Clarke as someone even younger than Major and Howard can be definitely ruled out in '92 but he might have a shot if someone old and divisive (e.g. Heseltine) gets the job and doesn't last the Parliament.
 
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