What if - The Auttrian navy gets defeated at Lissa...

and the Army defeated at Custozza.

Those victorys could give the Italians enough leverage to demand (in addition to venetia - which they got) the Trentino, Istria and maybe even (parts) of Dalamtia.

Could this lead to better Austro-Italian relations in the long run?

OTL Austria accepted the loss of its position in Germany - would Austria also accept the loss of those Italian speaking territories?

Or would Italy want even MORE bits out of Austria?
 
and the Army defeated at Custozza.

Those victorys could give the Italians enough leverage to demand (in addition to venetia - which they got) the Trentino, Istria and maybe even (parts) of Dalamtia.

Could this lead to better Austro-Italian relations in the long run?

OTL Austria accepted the loss of its position in Germany - would Austria also accept the loss of those Italian speaking territories?

Or would Italy want even MORE bits out of Austria?

Italy in that case will probably get just the italian speaking part of Trentino and some border adjustment on the east in italian favor (the bitter part of the negotiation will probably be the exact border line for pure military reasons); the division of the war spoil was alreasy agreed and more importantly neither Bismark or France and Great Britain want a too weakened A-H Empire so Rome demand will be very limited and the empire can live very well without it.
Ironically a situation where Trieste is more menaced by the italians can create a better diplomatically terrain, as can make the option to reach an agreement on the administration of the city (and in generally of the italian minority) more pliable...is not a given really, just a more strong possibility, expecially if Germany can play the role of the middleman/pacemaker at the moment of the signing of the Triple Alliance.

The big difference in Italy will be more of self image, here the first war as an unitary state has been a clear victory, Vienna must give up the land and the crow of Italy directely and not using Nappy III as a middleman so italian self-esteem will be greatly boosted and this can make the politicians in Rome pursuit a more aggressive policy both in Europe and on colonial matters.

More specifically, when the French and the German start to kill each others, the italian goverments can be a lot less reluctanct on take side and decide to give support on one side. Which is not so easy to decide, as the King and many of the Piedmontese intellighentsia favored France but many others saw Prussia (and Bismark ) as the rising star of Europe.
 
Bet won - I wagerd with myself that you would be among the first to answer this thread :D

When I read about the Treaty of Vienna (1866), I was surprised about the thing that Austria surrendered Venetia not to Italy but to France and that France immediately gave it to Italy (to save Austrias face - as they had won 2 out of 3 major engangements in the war against Italy)

And the anecdote about Nappy III havíng said (not sure about exact words): Another lost battle and they (Italy) will demand the surrender of Paris from me.... :D
 
I broadly agree with Luke. As an addition: there's no way Austria will ever let Trieste go short of near-destruction of the monarchy.
A scenario that was discussed time ago involved Austria losing Italian speaking Trentino and a largely Italian-speaking border strip in Kuenstenland (with Gradisca but probably neither Gorizia or Trieste) but this causing more bad blood and an Austro-French alliance countered by a Prusso-Italian one. While the Vienna-Paris axis can go either way (Austria might even be more willing to enter a Triple Alliance analog), the Prusso-Italian one is very likely and might cause a situation where Italy joins Prussia in 1870, with Nizza and Corsica as war aims (I always thought Savoy would probably not be retaken in Italian-French war scenarios, although this board's consensus is the opposite) regardless of what Austria does.
A possible result is a more cohesive Triple Alliance analog and a firmer standing of Italy as a Power... which might or might not lead to a stabler situation in Europe in the following decades.
 
However, I think that you POD should be Custoza, not Lissa.
The naval engagement was avoidable but, once the navies meet, having an Italian success is hard. The Austrian navy, IIRC, was quite vastly superior in the quality of ships, cadre and command, so facing it in the open sea was an error to begin with. Persano blundered, but I think that the best-case scenario was a draw at best anyway.
(OTOH, Custoza was closer to a draw than to an unalloyed Austrian victory).
 
Teh Italian fleet was actually quite better equipped and had more ships. (numbers differ but IIRC they had more purpose built ironclads)Training seems to have been better in the Austrian navy. Leadership scores were definitely betetr in the Austrian navy (IIRC one Italian squadron leader (Albini) did not follow orders (other sources: did not fire a shot)because of internal bickering with the admiral.

While Custozza was in no way a decisive battle it definitely was an italian defeat - partly because they retreated afterwards. And the Austrians made the misttake not to push forward. This seems to habe been a mistake and after Königgrätz the Austrians had to send troops nort, so the chance was void.

I believe that custozza could have been an italian victory and combined with Lissa it could have been enough to lead to harsher peace terms (even OTL Wilhelm wanted harsher terms on Austria, but Bismarck talked him out of them)
 
Bet won - I wagerd with myself that you would be among the first to answer this thread :D

Always glad to help;)

When I read about the Treaty of Vienna (1866), I was surprised about the thing that Austria surrendered Venetia not to Italy but to France and that France immediately gave it to Italy (to save Austrias face - as they had won 2 out of 3 major engangements in the war against Italy)

At the time face saving was even more important that now...and frankly Nappy always desired/considered North Italy his zone of influence and acted according to this, notwhistanding the opinion of the locals and his effective capacity

And the anecdote about Nappy III havíng said (not sure about exact words): Another lost battle and they (Italy) will demand the surrender of Paris from me.... :D

Frightenely possible:eek:

Back to business, well Lissa was more or less a consequence of the defeat of Custoza so without that the battle can be butteflyed away, i just choose one.
The problem of the Regia Marina was the same of the army, unity was too recent and the problem of making the various officer (coming from the different pre-unitary states) work together was not cleary solved...and better add the fact that (as usual) the decision of enter the war was done basically at the last minute so the various chain of command was even more divided and hapzard.
All in all a victory at Lissa mean that the Austrian army has great problems on supply the troops at the front and the italians are already conquered Trentino and half of Venetia at the time, not counting the possibility of landing on Dalmatia as diversive action, basically not a immediate winning move but clearly put a lot more pression on the Austro-Hungarian.
Regarding Trieste, well i agree that a diplomatic agreement is not a given or even the most probable of the event; just that with the Regia Marina in control of the Adriatic and Trieste more menaced by Italy there are more possibilities of some sharing of power/agreement.

Well an Austrian-France alliance (Nappy can be upset if his diplomatic move are utterly refused, plus even a 'perceived' closeness between Berlin and Rome will be considered dangerous) will be faced by a Prussia-Italian one almost by instinct, especially if Bismarck is more prone to not dismiss Italy as a drag.

Italy request on an hypotetical war against France will be (in order of importance)

- Nice (plus some border adjustment for military reason on Savoy)
- Free Hand on Tunisia
- Corsica
- Savoy (just for historical reason but can be simply used as request to be discarted for diplomatically reason so to seem counciliatory)
 
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