What if the August Coup never happened?

Vera Strawberry

In August 1991, communist hardliners in the Soviet Union attempted to remove reformist head of state Mikhail Gorbachev from power and "correct course". However, the coup attempt was poorly organized and proved an utter failure, collapsing in only two days. Not only that, but rather than saving the USSR, the coup proved to be the final nail in its coffin, and the Soviet Union dissolved on Christmas Day of that year.

What if the so-called August Coup had never happened?
 

Lalli

Probably depends why coup attempt never occur. Do Gorbachev loyalists in KGB and Red Army find plans in time and arrest plotters? Or is Gorbachev more cautious on reforms?

But whatever, Baltic republics would still re-gain independence. New constitution would decentralise the state and the country becomes more democratic and liberal. Altough economically it would still be pretty leftist.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Well, what exactly would they try to do economically. The exact sell-off of shares as in OTL may not happen, nor 'shock therapy' as attempted, but there was a sense of desperate need for change, so some pretty radical experimentation would be tried.
 

WanderingProfessor

Banned
The August Coup not happening means that the New Union Treaty is formally ratified and the Union of Sovereign States is declared with Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan as its founding members since they voted Yes and participated in the referendum. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) leave because of the illegal occupation by the Soviets during World War II and the Singing Revolution as does Armenia over the USSR refusing to hand over Nagorno-Karabakh to them and backing Azerbaijan despite their best efforts with trying to convince Gorbachev, Georgia because of the incompetent conservative leadership and the April 9th tragedy and Moldova due to tensions with the Russian and Gagauz minorities.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Geopolitically, how does the persistence of the USS end up altering major international questions?

These include:

Moscow-Beijing relations
The global community's handling of Yugoslavia's disintegration and civil wars
The post-Gulf War policing of Iraq with sanctions, embargoes and no fly zones
Withdrawal of Russian/USS troops from Germany
Potential NATO expansion
Border issues/"frozen conflicts" several of which will be on the edge of the USS - Transnistria (as mentioned), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh.
Internal security issues, potential wars/uprisings - Chechen/Ichkerian independence - a first Chechen War? A Tatar declaration of sovereignty?
Relations on other parts of the USS periphery: Mongolia's political future, the future of USS aid for the Afghan government of Najibullah and its longevity

Plus economic reforms attempted, and their outcomes, in the USS space.
 
ImperialxWarlord

ImperialxWarlord

raharris1973 said:
Geopolitically, how does the persistence of the USS end up altering major international questions?

These include:

Moscow-Beijing relations
The global community's handling of Yugoslavia's disintegration and civil wars
The post-Gulf War policing of Iraq with sanctions, embargoes and no fly zones
Withdrawal of Russian/USS troops from Germany
Potential NATO expansion
Border issues/"frozen conflicts" several of which will be on the edge of the USS - Transnistria (as mentioned), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh.
Internal security issues, potential wars/uprisings - Chechen/Ichkerian independence - a first Chechen War? A Tatar declaration of sovereignty?
Relations on other parts of the USS periphery: Mongolia's political future, the future of USS aid for the Afghan government of Najibullah and its longevity

Plus economic reforms attempted, and their outcomes, in the USS space.
Click to expand...
I think the USSR (I prefer that they keep that title lol). Would like win or avoid any of those border conflicts because of their power. Chechnya could very well be avoided or if it does happen it would likely end in a decisive Soviet victory.

Relations work China would most likely improve but maybe not to the point that they are now if the Soviets become too much of an economic rival and don’t like how powerful China is becoming.

I imagine that Gorbie might try and intervene in Yugoslavia, although how that effects things depends on how much influence he can put on Yugoslavia and if the US and USSR can work together.

I don’t think anything could be done for Iraq. I can’t recall if the USSR didn’t do anything to help or try to help iraq. And if they did it didn’t work. So I don’t see many changes here.

Maybe NATO won’t expand or maybe it won’t expand much. Hard to say really how the US and NATO will look at expansion of the Soviet Union is around and recovering.

Not sure about Mongolia but I can see Soviet aid continuing to goto Afghanistan and keeping them going. They actually were militarily successful againsr the mujahideen and only collapsed when the aid dried up. But something has to give eventually, either for air against them.

Not sure how the economy would look, but I can’t see it being anywhere near as bad as it was iotl.
 

Pericles

The New Union Treaty would have been ratified. The big question is whether that could have led to a sustainable democratic USSR, or whether it would have just delayed the complete collapse by a few years?
 
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