What if the Archduke is not assassinated

[EvanTurner594]

Was a World War in the summer of 1914 inevitable with the major powers all building massive armies and making ironclad diplomatic treaties that tied them down in the case of war? IMO the great war that occurred could have easily been prevented or even marginalized if cooler heads had prevailed. Let's propose a scenario where the Archduke survives the assassination attempt, what justification would Germany and Austria have now to provoke war?

 

[Geredis]

In short...no.

If not Franz Ferdinand, then some other (relatively important) Austrian official will die in some assassination attempt in the months or year following. You see, the Archduke's assassination was not an isolated incident, and between 1900 and 1914 there were dozens of assassinations and attempted assassinations of various officials, including Serbian officials that leaned towards Austria, as well as Austrian officials in various posts by Serb and Slavic nationalists that hated Austrian meddling in the Balkans.

Now, if you want the plot to try but fail (that is, no wrong turn for the driver/the captain standing on the correct running board when the driver realises his mistake and they come across the sandwich-eating Princep...), I think the mere attempt on the Archduke's life is enough to still set the powder keg alight in the Balkans. Austria will still demand an investigation, and while it may not meddle with the Serbian investigation, unless the findings from Belgrade match up with what Austria wants to hear, we'll have war. Maybe delayed by a few months, but war all the same.

Oh, and if both the Archduke and the General are hit (Sophie's bullet 'missed', aimed supposedly for the general, the name of whom I've forgotten), instead of 5 weeks till war, expect Europe to go up in 2-3 weeks time.

 

[Josephus]

Oh, and if both the Archduke and the General are hit (Sophie's bullet 'missed', aimed supposedly for the general, the name of whom I've forgotten), instead of 5 weeks till war, expect Europe to go up in 2-3 weeks time.

General Potiorek. I suspect a faster-evolving crisis would be beneficial for the central powers. With the murders fresh in mind, support for Slavic brothers might weigh less in the Zar's mind than the fact that said support would mean condoning the assassination of Royals, which, considering Romanov familiy history, would be a Bad Thing. And apart from Russia no one cared about the Serbs, who were widely seen, especially after the bloody putsch of 1903 as semi-barbaric wogs.

 

[Cú Raghnaill]

The War was inevitable although Franz not being assasinated would have been ideal for the Germans and Bismark the longer world war 1 took to kick off the stronger Germany would get.

 

[MattII]

A stronger Russia would get as well though, they were in the middle of reorganising their military when the war started.

 

[Nietzsche]

General Potiorek. I suspect a faster-evolving crisis would be beneficial for the central powers. With the murders fresh in mind, support for Slavic brothers might weigh less in the Zar's mind than the fact that said support would mean condoning the assassination of Royals, which, considering Romanov familiy history, would be a Bad Thing. And apart from Russia no one cared about the Serbs, who were widely seen, especially after the bloody putsch of 1903 as semi-barbaric wogs.

As far as I'm aware, Russia herself was close to leaving Serbia to her just deserts.

 

[Snake Featherston]

If the war isn't between Serbia and Austria-Hungary, there are other potential flashpoints that can set it off, while the alliance system guarantees any conflict of two great powers with Germany involved will be general.

 

[eliphas8]

It has to be before 1915, after that point the military reforms that would improve Russia's military would fully be in effect and if that happens then Germany wont declare war even with their alliances becuase fighting a modernized russia and France at the same time would mean Germany is doomed. If Germny doesnt join in the chain of alliances based around containing Germany where it to declare war on Russia with the help of Austria Hungary would never go off.

 

[ivanotter]

As I understand it, Austria was slow to get into the stride. Germany expected it to be close to a police action, instead Austri called up troops, foudn out that none were available as they had all gone hometo harvest, etc etc.

The whole thing just taking weeks on end instead of days as Germany could have expected.

That Germany got dragged into it (together with Russia) was more because of the "blank cheque" germany issued to Austria (which was immensely dof), having Austria to speadhead any action.

Russia finally got into it as it was beginning to be seen as an attak on "slav nationalism".

If Austria had "invaded" within hours and not mssing with ultimatum, nespaper adverts (one of the points was that a full-page advertorial in the newspapers had to be taken out before a certain date!), maybe this crisis would not have caused the ruptures.

That said, with the Kaizer in a "war mode" it probably would have been a matter of time before something else would have set world on war.

The Balkans was an area ripe with problems, also because of the Turk decline, I believe.

The more interesting question would be:

"If Bismarck had been a tad younger and still been chancellor until 1920+, would there have been a WWI?"

...but I think that is a thread done womewhere else.

Ivan

 

[Flubber]

The War was inevitable although Franz not being assasinated would have been ideal for the Germans and Bismark the longer world war 1 took to kick off the stronger Germany would get.

First, Bismarck died in 1898 and hadn't been Chancellor since 1890. Suggesting that Bismarck was making decisions for Germany in 1914 is insane.

Second, Germany was getting relatively weaker each year when compared to her enemies. Part of the reason the war occurred when it did was because Germany perceived their window of opportunity was closing.

 

[Flubber]

As I understand it, Austria was slow to get into the stride.

A big part of that has to do with the position of Hungary within the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Franz Joseph' ministers needed to have Hungary onside with any political decision. They simply cannot send in the army without negotiating with Hungary first.

 

[Josephus]

And the §%&$ Hungarians always tried to screw over everyone else in those hagglings. Those magnates seemed to believe that the Austrians would just pack up and leave if they were obstructionist and obnoxious enough, and then they could realize their little dream of a pre-1848-style feudal regime without interference from peasants, other nationalities and that pesky Kaiserhaus.

 

[ivanotter]

Back to the main question: What if the archduke is not assasinated?

Other hotspots in the Balkans: Plenty of those, which would mena that the war would have been coming anyway.

It may be seen as the general instability of AH and Turkey as the major causes. AH in confloict with itself, with a huge population of slav origins, oppressive, does not sit well with Russia.

Turkey falling apart is a fact, creating hotspots throughout.

The only thing to take the heat out of the situation might be some sort of agreement between "Der Kaizer" and "Nicky". After all, Germany was not the first to mobilise.

A Bismarck might have pulled it off, but I believe the Kaizer was set on confrontations anyway, spoiling the good relationship with UK.

Looking at Bismarck's strategy of isolating France, pacifying Russia and intimidating UK was not a bad strategy after all.

Ivan