What would happen if the Arabs had successfully won the siege of Constantinople in 717-718 AD?
They probably wouldn't be able to hold out against the Muslims forever, though.Of course, there are still the Germans and Italians, but pressed up against the Arabs from both sides, it seems hard to fight back.
The siege of Constantinople in 717 was more or less unwinnable for Arabs : they managed to gather an impressive army, but never really broke the Roman logistical lines while the Arab army was badly supplied itself.What would happen if the Arabs had successfully won the siege of Constantinople in 717-718 AD?
Giving that you had little occurences in contemporary chronicles about what happened in the eastern basin of Mediterranean Sea, I doubt it to be honest : not that the fall of Constantinople wouldn't be known and debated, of course, but it wouldn't be that of a political low point, as the fall of Carthage went largely (politically-wise) unnoticed in the West.Charles Martel may have less confidence in his ability to fight the Arabs when they invade Gaul historically
Thing is, Arabo-Berber record is relatively mixed in Europe, mostly because of aformentioned military (as well as political troubles with Berbers and among Arabs, namely between Kalbids and Kaysits) : it's because the Caliphate was stretched that the whole of Islamic West turned to be largely independent even in the VIIIth century.I've heard people say that the Arabs would be too stretched to deal with the Balkan barbarians and Western Europe. I don't agree with that at all. The state that conquered Iran and East Rome will have no problem crushing people leagues less developed.
They more or less did to count on local Gothic subservience, tough : it mostly worked for the richer parts of Spain (where Arab settlement was focused), not so much for the places where Berbers were settled (partially due to the Great Berber Revolt) or none was. Eventually Arabo-Berbers managed to hold on on the "worthwile" Spain (or so they rationalized, because Lower Languedoc was a regional powerhouse), but failed the numbers and ressources (or political will, truth to be said) to hold on the rest, let alone continue the expansion.Remember that a tiny minority of Arabs with a bunch of recently Islamicized Berbers was able to conquer almost all of Spain and hold it for centuries
I don't think anything, because I didn't know this argument as such, altough I looked (a tiny bit) on the argument about the sheer inexistence of the First Arab Siege, but I'm wary about discarding all Byzantine sources for the sake of it, personally.@LSCatilina What do think of the argument made in the article The First Arab Siege of Constantinople by Marek Jankowiak? It argues that the first siege was actually in the 660's, not the 670's. I've heard it said that this is generally the view of most modern scholarship as well (for example, In God's Path by Robert G. Holland).