What if the Andalusian Independentist Conspiracy of 1641 succeeded?

[Oba Cahokia]

I recently found out about this yesterday and was wondering how this would play out if it worked? The Andalusian Independentist Conspiracy was a plan created Duke Gaspar Alonso Perez de Guzman and Francisco Manuel Silvestre de Guzmán to revolt against Spain and create an independent kingdom in Andalusia.
How world history play out differently?

Andalusian independentist conspiracy (1641) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Pauh the federalist]

I recently found out about this yesterday and was wondering how this would play out if it worked? The Andalusian Independentist Conspiracy was a plan created Duke Gaspar Alonso Perez de Guzman and Francisco Manuel Silvestre de Guzmán to revolt against Spain and create an independent kingdom in Andalusia.
How world history play out differently?

Andalusian independentist conspiracy (1641) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I dont know a whole lot about this period but I am aware that this is just after the Portuguese Spanish union failed in 1640 and kicked off the restoration war and that further fracturing of spain may have been possible.

Iberian Union - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Habsburg Spain - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Portuguese Restoration War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Andalusia would likly need a sponsor to secede successfuly and during this time the Ottomans, English or French seem like the best candidates (the later having supported Nepalese and catolonian rebelions in land of the former crown of aragon that Spain held in a attempt to rupture Spanish control of these tarritorys.[the later rebelion was a significant benchmark for the catolinian people and served as the basis for thier national anthum])

Franco-Spanish War (1635–1659) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Reapers' War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Els Segadors - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Neapolitan Republic (1647–1648) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This was also the time period of the 80 years war with the dutch revolts and the 30 years war so regional minor powers to consider, are the Dutch, Portuguese, italian minors (piedmontese cival war)
and possibly the saadi Moroccan Sultanate who was in a anti spanish alliance with England if the Anglo Spanish war kicks off around a decade earlier allowing English and Moroccan intrests to intersect with supporting the Andalusians. (The English where considered on the French side of the otl Franco Spanish war)

Anglo-Spanish War (1654–1660) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Anglo-Moroccan alliance - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Piedmontese Civil War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Eighty Years' War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Saadi Sultanate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Thirty Years' War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The ottomans where vary much still considered a great power at this time and arguably near the hight of thier power with the battle of Vienna being only a few decades away but I would say im the case of the ottomans thier support would likly come as a result of the Franco ottoman alliance, possibly joining in on the Franco Spanish war or advantageously assisting England and Morocco if they are at war with spain as opposed to a independent operation and at least enough coperation from Morocco to allow troop movement through thier tarritory.

Franco-Ottoman alliance - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Battle of Vienna - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Assuming a Spanish screw in this period with these 3 powers finding commen intrest agenst spain and a better performance out of participants this looks like a prime period to shatter Spanish power if they lose control of not just Andalusia but also Catalonia and thier other europian possessions in Italy and the neatherlands.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Post independence war a Andalusian state would be a mid tier power due to its stratigic importance of owning the mouth of the Mediterranean which would make the contery essentialy a super-sized gibralter so I expect a lot of contrys to attempt to court them but as with its independence keeping spain off of it even in its weakend state would be a ongoing concern Andalusian is likly to contine positive relations Britan, France and the Ottomans as a strategic ally or protectorate. France seems like the most natural of the 3 as the closest land power but if Andalusia decides to colonize I could see them finding more value in a naval ally like britan with Andalusia taking on the role as both a gibralter and kind of second Portugal to England and assuming the english Moroccan alliance continues, morroco could be a viable mid tier ally for the Andalusians. The ottomans are the least likely unless we are working with a timeline that has them maintain more control over Morocco.
In any of these scenarios I expect the now independent Iberian country's (Andalusia, Portugal and possibly catalonia and the basque) to sign a mutual defensive pact to come to eachothers aid in the case of invasion since up until this point spain controled all of Iberia through the Iberian union so all would be fearful of possible Spanish reconquest.

Iberian Union - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[ahmedali]

Post independence war a Andalusian state would be a mid tier power due to its stratigic importance of owning the mouth of the Mediterranean which would make the contery essentialy a super-sized gibralter so I expect a lot of contrys to attempt to court them but as with its independence keeping spain off of it even in its weakend state would be a ongoing concern Andalusian is likly to contine positive relations Britan, France and the Ottomans as a strategic ally or protectorate. France seems like the most natural of the 3 as the closest land power but if Andalusia decides to colonize I could see them finding more value in a naval ally like britan with Andalusia taking on the role as both a gibralter and kind of second Portugal to England and assuming the english Moroccan alliance continues, morroco could be a viable mid tier ally for the Andalusians. The ottomans are the least likely unless we are working with a timeline that has them maintain more control over Morocco.
In any of these scenarios I expect the now independent Iberian country's (Andalusia, Portugal and possibly catalonia and the basque) to sign a mutual defensive pact to come to eachothers aid in the case of invasion since up until this point spain controled all of Iberia through the Iberian union so all would be fearful of possible Spanish reconquest.

Iberian Union - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I dont know a whole lot about this period but I am aware that this is just after the Portuguese Spanish union failed in 1640 and kicked off the restoration war and that further fracturing of spain may have been possible.

Iberian Union - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Habsburg Spain - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Portuguese Restoration War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Andalusia would likly need a sponsor to secede successfuly and during this time the Ottomans, English or French seem like the best candidates (the later having supported Nepalese and catolonian rebelions in land of the former crown of aragon that Spain held in a attempt to rupture Spanish control of these tarritorys.[the later rebelion was a significant benchmark for the catolinian people and served as the basis for thier national anthum])

Franco-Spanish War (1635–1659) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Reapers' War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Els Segadors - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Neapolitan Republic (1647–1648) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This was also the time period of the 80 years war with the dutch revolts and the 30 years war so regional minor powers to consider, are the Dutch, Portuguese, italian minors (piedmontese cival war)
and possibly the saadi Moroccan Sultanate who was in a anti spanish alliance with England if the Anglo Spanish war kicks off around a decade earlier allowing English and Moroccan intrests to intersect with supporting the Andalusians. (The English where considered on the French side of the otl Franco Spanish war)

Anglo-Spanish War (1654–1660) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Anglo-Moroccan alliance - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Piedmontese Civil War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Eighty Years' War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Saadi Sultanate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Thirty Years' War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The ottomans where vary much still considered a great power at this time and arguably near the hight of thier power with the battle of Vienna being only a few decades away but I would say im the case of the ottomans thier support would likly come as a result of the Franco ottoman alliance, possibly joining in on the Franco Spanish war or advantageously assisting England and Morocco if they are at war with spain as opposed to a independent operation and at least enough coperation from Morocco to allow troop movement through thier tarritory.

Franco-Ottoman alliance - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Battle of Vienna - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Assuming a Spanish screw in this period with these 3 powers finding commen intrest agenst spain and a better performance out of participants this looks like a prime period to shatter Spanish power if they lose control of not just Andalusia but also Catalonia and thier other europian possessions in Italy and the neatherlands.

If this succeeds, along with other rebellions, we will ensure that Spain is crippled and very weak

Assuming the Habsburgs would help their Spanish kin, there is no Eugene of Savoy (b. 1663, events here between 1640 and 1670) and Poland flooded.

It is almost certain to see the Habsburgs weakened and severely

The Ottomans will take the rest of Hungary and plunder Vienna, and the French will break the Habsburg siege on them and achieve
Their geopolitical goals, besides England, the Netherlands and Portugal, may select the colonies of Spain

And the dreams of Gustavus Adolphus came true

So France for the rest of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries is much stronger, as are Sweden, the Ottomans, England and the Netherlands and portugaI

 

[Taunay]

If this succeeds, along with other rebellions, we will ensure that Spain is crippled and very weak

Assuming the Habsburgs would help their Spanish kin, there is no Eugene of Savoy (b. 1663, events here between 1640 and 1670) and Poland flooded.

It is almost certain to see the Habsburgs weakened and severely

The Ottomans will take the rest of Hungary and plunder Vienna, and the French will break the Habsburg siege on them and achieve
Their geopolitical goals, besides England, the Netherlands and Portugal, may select the colonies of Spain

And the dreams of Gustavus Adolphus came true

So France for the rest of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries is much stronger, as are Sweden, the Ottomans, England and the Netherlands and portugaI

I hope someone does a TL about this!

 

[Prince di Corsica]

With so much of the colonial apparatus located in Andaluzia, to say nothing of the very physical southern coastline uniting Spain to the sea I wonder what would happen to the colonies (even to the Canary Islands) in this setting

 

[Strategos' Risk]

So is this sort of like the Tripartite Indenture to split Wales and Northumberland away from England, in the sense that there was no actual Andalusian identity present at the time, this was just some bunch of nobles having big-brained ideas to split the kingdom between one another, even if the local people had no interest in doing so?

Not that such a thing couldn't have traction, given how in still-feudal pre-nationalist times I would imagine that nobles and royals could get away with making arbitrary splits like that. Not to mention everyone would assume that eventually the kingdom would re-merge anyway.

 

[ahmedali]

With so much of the colonial apparatus located in Andaluzia, to say nothing of the very physical southern coastline uniting Spain to the sea I wonder what would happen to the colonies (even to the Canary Islands) in this setting

Henry III, James I and João IV will begin to have funny ideas about her

 

[ahmedali]

So is this sort of like the Tripartite Indenture to split Wales and Northumberland away from England, in the sense that there was no actual Andalusian identity present at the time, this was just some bunch of nobles having big-brained ideas to split the kingdom between one another, even if the local people had no interest in doing so?

Not that such a thing couldn't have traction, given how in still-feudal pre-nationalist times I would imagine that nobles and royals could get away with making arbitrary splits like that. Not to mention everyone would assume that eventually the kingdom would re-merge anyway.

It can be said that the rebellions of the nobles were the rule before the emergence of nationalism

So it is not difficult for a new nation to emerge

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Yeah, but having unique cultural or linguistic distinctions would help make the change more permanent. Portuguese is different from Castilian Spanish, after all. I've created a couple of threads in the past asking why Portugal didn't end up like Galicia or some other constituent part of Spain, and have forgotten the learnings, but maybe Andalusia could use similar differences from northern Spain.

 

[Santo Nombre]

With so much of the colonial apparatus located in Andaluzia, to say nothing of the very physical southern coastline uniting Spain to the sea I wonder what would happen to the colonies (even to the Canary Islands) in this setting

The loyalty of the viceroy of Peru, Pedro de Toledo y Leiva , will be with the king.
But the viceroy of New Spain, Diego López Pacheco y Braganza... well, look at the family name. ITL he was deposed in order to erase any possibility of treason, so in a TL with a more weakened crown anything can happen. Maybe his arrest is discovered and then he decides to start a rebellion. Or maybe not, because he was indeed a loyal subject of the spanish monarch.

 

[Prince di Corsica]

The loyalty of the viceroy of Peru, Pedro de Toledo y Leiva , will be with the king.
But the viceroy of New Spain, Diego López Pacheco y Braganza... well, look at the family name. ITL he was deposed in order to erase any possibility of treason, so in a TL with a more weakened crown anything can happen. Maybe his arrest is discovered and then he decides to start a rebellion. Or maybe not, because he was indeed a loyal subject of the spanish monarch.

Reading about the events in New Spain it seems the local authorities were the ones to strike quickly against the viceroy, so I imagine that'd still happen.

But even if the colonies remain loyal to the Crown, then at least the Peninsular dynamics would have to shift. I imagine Galiza would become the new hub for trade from the colonies, which could change the region's history dramatically

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Concurrent revolts in Catalonia (the Catalonian republic under french suzerainty) and Naples could mean you end up with a Habsburg Spain only in possession of northern Castile , the Netherlands and Milan.

 

[Santo Nombre]

I imagine Galiza would become the new hub for trade from the colonies

Or maybe after loosing Seville they learn that is better not to put all the eggs on the same basket and they decentralize trade, a thing that on the long term may be beneficial for Spain; so not only Galicia (Vigo, Coruña, Ferrol) but also Asturias (Gijón), Cantabria (Santander, Laredo, Santoña), Valencia (Valencia, Denia, Alicante), Murcia (Cartagena)...

 

[Santo Nombre]

Concurrent revolts in Catalonia (the Catalonian republic under french suzerainty) and Naples could mean you end up with a Habsburg Spain only in possession of northern Castile , the Netherlands and Milan.

The rebel catalan territory is just the principality of Catalonia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principality_of_Catalonia
France may continue the attack on Spain if they saw it weaker, but the french were not welcomed in Catalonia after the first abuses of the french army, so the catalans may be hostile against the french troops, dificulting the french actions. I think that after 1648-50 France will loose interest in defending Catalonia. Then so they may try to integrate some more counties in addition to Roussillon (probably Aran, Cerdanya, Urgell, Empuries, Besalú and Pallars; if France is strong enough also Berga, Osona, Gerona, Barcelona and Tarragona); also Andorre. On the long term this will erase the catalan culture, as happened on Roussillon...
Other way a 1650 independent Catalonia will not resist a spanish reconquest on the long term. Maybe with mercenaries...
Anyway, mutilated-Spain will probably keep Lleida and Tortosa; the later will became an important port because it is inland and it allows to connect all the Ebro bassin with the Mediterranean sea.

 

[ahmedali]

Concurrent revolts in Catalonia (the Catalonian republic under french suzerainty) and Naples could mean you end up with a Habsburg Spain only in possession of northern Castile , the Netherlands and Milan.

This is if Henry did not take Milan and the Spanish Netherlands

This means only northern Castile

 

[Vitruvius]

Its not entirely clear what Medina Sidonia's plans were or how developed the conspiracy actually was. So in that sense you could kind of argue that almost anything could have happened. However assessing its probability of success objectively I'd still rate it as pretty low. The main obstacle was that, unlike other areas that rebelled during the period; Portugal or Catalonia or Naples, there was no tradition of statehood/nationhood or even autonomy in Andalucia. So its hard to see a path forward for an independent Andalucian state since it would have to be created whole cloth in the midst of a war.

The Portuguese revolt was caused by a number of factors, the losses to the Dutch in their colonial empire, Castile's failure to defend Portugal vs its demand for men and money for the war against France, threats to local autonomy etc. And so became a national liberation struggle, or at least the Braganza's successfully framed it as such and thus after securing the Portuguese colonial empire it really became a war between two states, Castile and Portugal. The Catalan and Neapolitan revolts had their origins in popular uprisings, in the Catalan case there was a opposition to Olivares' centralizing reforms (the Union of Arms) that threatened Catalan autonomy and the billeting of Castilian troops in Catalonia. The Neapolitan revolt was largely driven by economic conditions as the Spanish Viceroys had been extracting ungodly, unstainable, amounts of wealth from the Regno to feed the Spanish war effort.

There really isn't any obvious spark for revolt in Andalucia. And so the whole conspiracy was driven by discontent among some grandees, namely Medina Sidonia. But a few embittered nobles does not a revolt make. Its only real chance for success would be coordinated timely support from France and the Netherlands in concert with military operations in neighboring Portugal and then could only succeed if the Spanish state completely imploded, ie the French secure Catalonia and capture Aragon and work with Savoy to take Milan while Naples and Sicily successfully revolt (their rebellions came years later OTL).

And even then I doubt Medina Sidonia could hold it together as a viable state in the long run. There are no state institutions or traditions (administration, courts, currency etc) and would the major landholders of Andalucia really like the idea of one of their own, even a very powerful and wealthy Duke being suddenly elevated over them as their King? And a lot of the economic activity, especially in the ports is based upon trade with the Spanish colonial Empire which could perhaps be cut off or intercepted and supplanted by the Dutch.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Heavily agree with @Vitruvius . Hell, its not even confirmable that the "Andalusian conspiracy" actually existed, and that it was instead an invention of the Count-Duke of Olivares as a way to shore up his crumbling support by striking against one of Spain's most powerful noble families. A family who, I might add, the House of Olivares was a cadet of. It wouldn't be unthinkable to suggest that Olivares was angling for the Medina Sidonia fortune, or at least to humble a relative.

If OP is wanting a weakened Spain, the best bet would be a success for the Catalan revolt. After all, Catelonia was a long existing polity within the Aragonese Crown and had the close support of France for a time. Much easier to break away from the Habsburgs.

 

[raharris1973]

If we want to make the conspiracy exist and prosper,breakaway Andalusia would have the most natural demographic immigration and trade ties with Spains overseas empire. I think southerners dominated early migration. If Spain holds the colonies while losing Andalusia and reroutes trade through the northern coast, it accelerates the northern Spanish (Basque and Galician) takeover as the predominant Spanish migrant stream to the Americas. In OTL, this only happened in the 19th century.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Heavily agree with @Vitruvius . Hell, its not even confirmable that the "Andalusian conspiracy" actually existed, and that it was instead an invention of the Count-Duke of Olivares as a way to shore up his crumbling support by striking against one of Spain's most powerful noble families. A family who, I might add, the House of Olivares was a cadet of. It wouldn't be unthinkable to suggest that Olivares was angling for the Medina Sidonia fortune, or at least to humble a relative.

Now I'm wondering if there's a potential for "What if the Andalusian conspiracy actually existed?", as in the idea actually being passed around, even if the nobles don't actually go through with it. Would that create the seeds for Andalusian identity to be something that gets picked up again in future centuries, perhaps when regionalisms set in and there are grievances against Madrid? Could this have led to different factions arising in the Spanish Civil War? Sort of like how the Tripartite Indenture didn't get anywhere, but is an example of a historical meme that gets picked up way down the line for completely different reasons in a different context:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319353669633138693

Those Spanish nobles should've made a map of their conspiracy, then it would've at least merited inclusion in the Proposals and War Aims That Didn't Happen Map Thread.