Was shown a portion of the dialogue between the Brits and Swedes 1942-1944 on the subject of Swedish cooperation with the Allies. The Swedish position in their messages/remarks was their strategic position was impossible. Beyond military problems German controlled key contributions to Swedens economy, particularly in fuels. Electrical generation, food production, and winter heating would take deep hits were German controlled fuel cut off. The Swedish imperative was the essential items traded from Germany had to be immediately replaced by other sources.
Yes, and that could be gotten through Göteborg, the main Swedish port. Sweden was a nation of some 6,7 million inhabitants, the resources required would not be insignificant but not huge. Sweden also had a merchant navy which was mostly held at ports due to WWII and could be utilized. Sweden also had stockpiled resources which were in OTL significantly used to help Finland in 1944-1945 before trade routes through the Baltic could be opened. Sweden as a major forest industry nation could also use wood to replace coal, as Finland did in WWII.
A co-operating Sweden would greatly help in the initial invasion as well, as after taking out Zeeland the forces there could be rapidly reinforced by ferrying in Swedish troops. Swedish Navy could also provide initial help against (smallish) German naval counter-effort. Swedish AF was also not insignificant, although equipped with older planes. Re-equipped Swedish AF units could also provide some 500 fighters and 800 (tactical) bombers (SAAB 17 dive bomber and Caproni CA313 being major types) Some of the advanced aircraft could be sold prior to invasion in order to ensure smooth transition.
As for logistics, I would expect that fairly soon a new LL-route could be opened through Baltic, as Finland would get rid of Germany as soon as the Soviets would allow.
OTL the rapid gains from Op DRAGOON were due to the drawn down of forces in South France to reinforce the battle in Normandy. The same here requires a similar drawn down. Which may mot occur.
Larger German force in Southern France, the better. The best case is, if Hitler decides to get rid of Dragoon/Anvil force for good in order to deal a political blow for the Allies and in order to deal with Soviets and the Northern France invasion (a feint, in this case) later on. This would result in a set-piece battle from long distance of German supply base (Germany) where the Allies would excel.
To drive home their campaign on Germanys western frontier the Allies were very dependent on the Mega ports like Antwerp & Marseilles, and the aggregate of smaller ports such as Le Harve, Cherbourg, ect... In September 1944 a aggregate of about 35,000 tons daily were needed to sustain the Allied ground forces and tactical air forces in France & Belgium. A similar discharge through the Baltic ports would be needed, with a steady increase during the winter. What combination of ports there gives the Allies this capability?
Stettin, Greifswald, Kiel, Rostock, Lübeck and the number of smaller ports such as Greifswald which were not defended. Depending on which route the operation would take, maybe Hamburg as well. Southern Sweden and Zealand would provide most of the airbases, both having excellent port capabilities.
Scaling off my old national Geographic map I find that is about 600 km straight line from Normandy to Essen in the Rhur. From Essen to Rostock is some 500km. There is some savings in distance, but not a huge amount. Berlin is a nice economic target, but any Allied force headed there would be assailed from three directions.
Yes, but the Allies would be vastly superior on defense, resulting in German forces dwindling even faster. There's also further benefits. Even smallest German town occupied is a larger net loss to German capabilities than similar sized French town occupied. Tactical interdiction would be strategic interdiction as well as it would distrupt German economy even more gravely than similar effort in France.
Having said all that I do have a Scandinavian gambit that takes advantage of Allied sea power. While the goal is not a northern invasion of Germany it does detach Swedish resources from the German economy, & open northern Germany to a more direct attack from Allied air power.
A campaign in Norway would probably result in Hitler using the U-boats to battle this threat, resulting is smaller shipping losses in the Atlantic. Western Allied air and naval power in the Baltic (U/V -class British subs probably, along with MTB's et al) would also great hinder logistics of German Army Group North and would tie in German forces to defend Baltic even if an invasion was not really contemplated.
A Norwegian campaign would have the additional minor benefit of most probably getting Finland to the Allies as well - if the Soviets would allow it.
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