What if the 1959 Mosul uprising succeeded and Iraq joined the United Arab Republic?

[The Banker]

What if the 1959 Mosul uprising succeeded and Iraq joined the United Arab Republic?
It was an attempted coup by Arab nationalists in Mosul who wished to depose the then Iraqi Prime Minister Abd al-Karim Qasim, and install an Arab nationalist government which would then join the Republic of Iraq with the United Arab Republic. Nasser allegedly supported it

Now the interesting thing I think is that Iraq would balance out the power in the UAR and prevent Nasser from dominating the Syrians like an Egyptian colony and perhaps this could make the union survive longer

My questions are:
1)Would Iraq's entry really balance out power and make the situation better for the UAR?
2)Would such a UAR survive a defeat against Israel or crumble immediately?(Assuming Israel still wins some war in the 60s)

 

[Riain]

Would Nasser buy it? After all he was dead against the Baghdad pact as it would shift power away from Cairo.

Iraq was a bandit for coups and changing sides, they had a coup in 1963 that saw a Western oriented government come to power for 5 years. Iraq bought a bunch of Hunters from Britain during that timeframe.

 

[ahmedali]

It may encourage a similar revolution in Lebanon


But in the end, the union will inevitably separate


Because Nasser wanted everything to start and everything to end in Cairo and he made all the power to him


The Iraqis and the Syrians will resent this


But the difference is that Iraq, Syria and Lebanon will remain a united country after separating from Egypt

 

[Riain]

Lebanon was half Christian in the 50s, its not likely to join the UAR.

 

[cloistered scholar]

How would Iraq and Syria develop as one nation?

Perhaps Iraqi Sunnis don't feel as threatened with the addition of Syria Sunni population.

 

[ahmedali]

Lebanon was half Christian in the 50s, its not likely to join the UAR.

You are wrong

In fact

Many Arab nationalists are Christians


(The most prominent of them is Michel Aflaq, founder of the Baath Party, and Beirut was a meeting place for Arab nationalists like Cairo)


The Middle East in 1960 was more secular than in 1980

 

[walmart]

Lebanon was half Christian in the 50s, its not likely to join the UAR.

No Lebanon has been Muslim majority since 1932. The Christian community is both Arab and not universal in it's opposition to pan-Arabism.

 

[ahmedali]

How would Iraq and Syria develop as one nation?

Perhaps Iraqi Sunnis don't feel as threatened with the addition of Syria Sunni population.

I think that the 1961 coup will continue to happen and the coup of 1963 and 1968


And we will end with a Baathist government in the union of Syria and Iraq (if Nasser did not die before 1967, there is no hope of avoiding the six-day war and thus the occupation of the Golan, Sinai and the West Bank)


If he died before 1967, the nationalist trend might subside, as happened when Sadat took power, but without Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, I believe that the possibility of an independent Palestinian state is greater.


(It is still not possible, of course, because none of the Jews and Arabs wanted to compromise)


The survival of the Jordanian West Bank may make Black September less possible, and if it continues to happen, there will be a greater number of Palestinians siding with the Jordanian monarchy.


(Everyone ignores that the Jordanian citizens are tired of the Palestinian gangs and treat them as if they were a state within a state, for this reason they demanded the king to expel them and sided with him and the army, which has an original Jordanian majority against the Palestinians)


Here the Palestinians will lose the advantages of Jordanian citizenship if they try to support the Palestinian gangs, so they have an interest in supporting the king


The mutual distrust between indigenous Jordanians and Jordanians of Palestinian origin will be less


If the Iranian monarchy continues to fall and Khomeini rises, the union of Iraq and Syria will have a greater chance of victory over Iran


(Without Saddam’s doubts about Assad’s Syria’s support for Iran, and with a back corridor for the export of oil through the eastern Mediterranean instead of the Persian Gulf, a larger population and greater external armament, Iraq may win and Iran collapse into a civil war)

 

[Pesterfield]

What happens with Kuwait, would they be interested in joining this new country?

There was a unification movement in the 1930s, but when Kuwait finally got independence in 1961 it had apparently vanished and all the effort to reunify was on the Iraqi side.

 

[ahmedali]

What happens with Kuwait, would they be interested in joining this new country?

There was a unification movement in the 1930s, but when Kuwait finally got independence in 1961 it had apparently vanished and all the effort to reunify was on the Iraqi side.

Like OTL, if they try to invade, there are Britain, Iran, Pahlavi, Israel and Turkey to destroy them


If the Iran-Iraq war happened like OTL between the union of Iraq, Syria and Iran Khomeini


I doubt that they will invade Kuwait if they win Arabistan and the war against Iran


(The loss was what led to the invasion of Kuwait)

 

[ComradeLenin22]

cool wikibox made (not really reflective of how long I believe it would last)

 

[starman]

2)Would such a UAR survive a defeat against Israel or crumble immediately?(Assuming Israel still wins some war in the 60s)

One problem is the Iraqi army in the '60s--as at other times--had to deal with the Kurds, possibly limiting what they could send to fight Israel. Also, even as late as '73 Iraqi units fought rather poorly. Iraqi Hunters in Egypt were a notable exception; dunno if they would've been available several years earlier.

 

[ahmedali]

View attachment 775627
cool wikibox made (not really reflective of how long I believe it would last)

It will simply not last longer than OTL


Nasser spoiled the matter with his authoritarian and central demands from Cairo, which angered the Syrians


The Iraqis will remain angry at these demands only after 1961. Syria and Iraq will be one country after secession from Egypt

 

[Riain]

Syria and Iraq will be one country after secession from Egypt

Now that's something worth exploring, an oil-rich Arab country with access to the Gulf and Med.

 

[ahmedali]

Now that's something worth exploring, an oil-rich Arab country with access to the Gulf and Med.

I think that Lebanon and Hatay can be merged as part of this country if France does not give Hatay to Turkey and France does not separate Lebanon


This could lead to the success of the Union of Arab Republics between Egypt, Sudan and Libya (without Syria) in the seventies


Or the union of Libya and Tunisia


You will be more stable religiously because Sunnis are a clear majority

 

[Fries]

Syria and Iraq will be one country after secession from Egypt

This would definitely be interesting. Would they claim the mantle of "United Arab Republic" in the same vein as Egypt or rebrand themselves as a new Arab state? Maybe a "Union of Arab Republics" or the like?

 

[ahmedali]

This would definitely be interesting. Would they claim the mantle of "United Arab Republic" in the same vein as Egypt or rebrand themselves as a new Arab state? Maybe a "Union of Arab Republics" or the like?

They will continue with this name as it is, but with the death of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt will change its name to the Arab Republic of Egypt, so Iraq and Syria will remain the name of the United Arab Republic.