What if Taiwan or South Korea or both did not democratize in the late 80s and 90s?

China would be a lot less turbulent and perhaps more open. With authoritarian regimes in South Korea and Taiwan, China has 'partners' in the sense that they can cooperate more readily with the two nations (especially the Guomindang). Likewise, there's no real reason for China to openly antagonize the Guomindang to strengthen their opposition. Even moreso, China would feel less threatened by democratic movements (like the one in China) without Taiwan as an example to Chinese liberals - so it's possible that the Communist Party is more open and less restrictive.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
Although I wonder if Taiwan under a hardcore Guomindang dictatorship, it might justify its dictatorship on anti-communist grounds and be hostile, still claiming to be readying to reclaim the mainland.

Also, I wonder what tensions would build up internally in a society still under dictatorship for another decade or more. And tensions built up in the US-Taiwan relationship over it being undemocratic. A lot of the argument for getting closer again to Taiwan after 1989 was that it was democratizing, it wasn't just geopolitics like in the 50s and 60s.

Likewise, might Beijing worry about a continued South Korean dictatorship being more aggressive. I would think a regime like Chun Doo-Hwan's in the 1980s would be more anti-North and willing to invade than the North compared with any democratic regime, especially of Kim Dae-jung's party pursuing a "Sunshine Policy", rapprochement with China and determined to punish opponents have having "Japan-collaborationist" ancestry at this point. Plus, there's also a matter of South Korea's economic prospects an societal health under a perpetual dictatorships that probably only gets to stay that way through periodic assassinations and bloodlettings.
 
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