The position of the Finnish language in Sweden IOTL after 1809 can't be directly taken as a model for the position of the the Finnish language in this Swedish realm - on either side of the Gulf of Bothnia. Remember that Finnish-speakers would make up 25-30% of the entire population of the realm. That is, comparatively, more than there are French-speakers in Switzerland. TTL's Riksdag would see an actual, growing "Finnish lobby", in both "Finländare" and "Finne" sense. Due to this, we need to accept the idea that Finnish-speakers would have much bigger political say in Sweden past 1809 than IOTL, where the number of Finnish-speakers was much smaller within Sweden's OTL modern borders.

While IOTL Finnish is by the 21st century moribund as a language in Sweden, ITTL the situation would be different due to replenishment based on the constant movement of people across the sea. Finnish would be a major national minority language. The result is a livelier Finnish-speaking society and culture in western Sweden as well. When Finnish schools will be pushed for the Eastern part of the nation after the 1850s, say, and especially in the 20th century, they will also be pushed for those western parts of the nation where Finnish-speakers make up a significant proportion of the people.

The Flemish was a majority in Belgium from day one, it didn't really lead to favoured treatment of their language, and thjat was in a far more democratic state than Sweden. I expect the Swedish debate will be split between the "Lär Svenska din hund" faction and the "Finnish should be co-official east of th Bothnian Bay" faction.
 
I think Russia likely will take Finland as it continues to strengthen in the nineteenth century. Of course, I don't expect many Finns to like Russia, but I don't see how Sweden can keep the behemoth that is Russia out.

What's the plausibility of Russia only conquering part of Finland, with places like Turku remaining Swedish?

I agree with this in general. Sweden retaining Finland would require, basically, Stockholm to keep rolling sixes in both its foreign politics and internal decisions through the 19th and 20th centuries, while the Russians are permanently drunk on vodka and keep bashing their heads against a brick wall as a national pastime.

If Russia looks like to be winning in a major war against Sweden in the 19th or 20th century, it is hard to see why it would not go all the way in claiming the Finnish mainland. Turku/Åbo and its surroundings would be the major centre of population, trade and industry in Finland ITTL, so it is hard to see the Russians allowing Sweden to keep it if they have the chance to grab it.


The Flemish was a majority in Belgium from day one, it didn't really lead to favoured treatment of their language, and thjat was in a far more democratic state than Sweden. I expect the Swedish debate will be split between the "Lär Svenska din hund" faction and the "Finnish should be co-official east of th Bothnian Bay" faction.

Belgium wasn't as dependent on keeping the Flemish population loyal to maintain its grip on them as Sweden would be ITTL of placating the Finns. Democracy doesn't come into it as much as self-preservation. Sweden doesn't exist alone in a vacuum - Russia looms large across the border, stronger by the day, and the Finns being recalcitrant and rebellious, unwilling to fight for Stockholm, would make Sweden weaker. Sweden can't afford to be weaker. A Swedish realm that mistreats the Finns doesn't get to keep Finland, that is to me the long and short of it. The ability to work together is what keeps Sweden together, if anything does. Treating the Finns in an arrogant and overbearing manner would only serve to make them bitter and drive them away. It would be akin to serving Finland to Russia on a silver platter.
 
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