what if stalin had died in the red white civil war and Leon Trotsky sucseeded lennin

anamarvelo

Banned
whithout stalin Leon Trotsky takes lenin old postion
what doe he do
how doe the USSR turn out?
what is russia like today?
 
Well there would be a lot of Changes. First of all no massive purges of the Red Army. Trotsky would be in a much more difficult situation if he doesn't learn. There is no way that he would co-operate with the Germans. Even more so when the Nazi's come to power. I have little doubt that he remained in power long enough he would push for Soviet intervention in the Civil War in Spain. Making sure that the Communist controlled everything.
 
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Well there would be a lot of Changes. First of all no massive purges of the Red Army. Trotsky would still promote Communism but would be far more realistic. He might be able to work for better relations with the West thus eliminating the Germans ability to train in the Soviet Union.
More realistic? Trotsky's policy was international revolution ("permanent revolution"). Domestically he would have pushed ahead with collectivization and industrialization; internationally he would have pushed all the Comintern parties toward revolutions in their respective countries. Internally he probably gets into disputes with Zinoviev and Kamenev (who take Stalin's part as the "Center") and Bukharin (who would still presumably be on the right opposition). Most post-1926 CPSU personalities would be nonentities without Stalin.

Realistically Trotsky probably would have intervened in favor of the Chinese Communists in 1926-27, and either sparked further international revolution or world war, or possibly both. You'd still run up against severe internal problems and external ones as well.
 
More realistic? Trotsky's policy was international revolution ("permanent revolution"). Domestically he would have pushed ahead with collectivization and industrialization; internationally he would have pushed all the Comintern parties toward revolutions in their respective countries. Internally he probably gets into disputes with Zinoviev and Kamenev (who take Stalin's part as the "Center") and Bukharin (who would still presumably be on the right opposition). Most post-1926 CPSU personalities would be nonentities without Stalin.

Realistically Trotsky probably would have intervened in favor of the Chinese Communists in 1926-27, and either sparked further international revolution or world war, or possibly both. You'd still run up against severe internal problems and external ones as well.

Realistically he doesn't last long at all and is eventually replaced by Bukharin or possibly Zioviev or Kamenev. He just didn't have the political skills. He was a better theoretician than politician. If he lasts there is far more likelihood for world war than under Stalin as you said.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, we're talking about the same guy who missed Lenin's funeral? There's no way such a politically unsavvy person maintains power. My money would be on Bukharin eventually becoming supreme leader, given how far he got. Zinoviev and Kamenev, I think would probably still be defeated.
 

MSZ

Banned
Trotskist USSR means full implementation of war communism and maintaining 'permanent revolution' as the standing principle of foreign policy. This means a much more aggressive USSR, with the death toll from collectivization and industralization being noticably larger than OTL, possibly also a Soviet involvment in the Chinese Civil War (since that is were the revolution is most likely succeed).

One interesting thing would be if the Rapallo German-Soviet cooperation would be implemented as OTL, or the Troskites scaring the Germans enough to abandon it.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Correct me if I'm wrong, we're talking about the same guy who missed Lenin's funeral? There's no way such a politically unsavvy person maintains power.
The guy who Stalin misinformed as to the date/time of Lenin's funeral.
My money would be on Bukharin eventually becoming supreme leader, given how far he got. Zinoviev and Kamenev, I think would probably still be defeated.
You wanna talk about politically unsavvy? Bukharin was a dandy pseudo-intellectual who survived as long as he did due to his friendship with the Politburo's wives. He had absolutely no desire to run things and much preferred theorizing, doodling, and the daydreaming of Salon Bolshevism to matters of state.

Zinoviev is absolutely baseless outside of Petrograd; he's a City Boss and a long-winded, glaringly ambitious theoretician. His being Jewish is a detriment as is his shit military record.

Kamenev's power came from being Lenin's buddy and the fickle bedrock of Politburo membership. He didn't have a great patronage network--what he had was Street Cred as Lenin's deputy. But when Vlad Ilyich died, Kamenev--his natural successor to the Chairmanship of the Sovnarkom--was passed over for the premiership partly because he was a "Foreigner" (Jew), hence Rykov getting the job; partly because Kamenev himself didn't want the job; partly because nobody wanted him to get it, etc.

Realistically he doesn't last long at all and is eventually replaced by Bukharin or possibly Zioviev or Kamenev. He just didn't have the political skills. He was a better theoretician than politician. If he lasts there is far more likelihood for world war than under Stalin as you said.
See above.

Trotsky's short lived time at the top (however achieved) sees him bumped down to some harmless commissariate (if he doesn't downright flee). We probably see Rykov and Tomsky become important. Molotov may still emerge to lead the Rightists without Stalin and will probably be an important player.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
*If* Trotsky rises, it would be as a figurehead for what would in practice be a junta of Red Army generals.
Tukhachevksy, most likely--folks loved that guy.

And not a single soldier/general stood up for Trotsky when Kamenev, Zinoviev, and Stalin began trashing his military record in '25, despite all of them having pretty awful ones.
 
Tukhachevksy, most likely--folks loved that guy.

And not a single soldier/general stood up for Trotsky when Kamenev, Zinoviev, and Stalin began trashing his military record in '25.

True, that's a factor people tend to forget. A USSR led by Tuchachevsky would be a frightening thought, the man himself had an idea that's still viable now in terms of military concepts before the USSR even had tanks. :eek: He might actually do a better job making the USSR into a superpower than Stalin did, with somewhat less cost involved. :eek:
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Tukhachevsky was actually born into nobility. Imagine a scenario where he shacks up with the Whites instead of the Reds :eek:
 

MSZ

Banned
True, that's a factor people tend to forget. A USSR led by Tuchachevsky would be a frightening thought, the man himself had an idea that's still viable now in terms of military concepts before the USSR even had tanks. :eek: He might actually do a better job making the USSR into a superpower than Stalin did, with somewhat less cost involved. :eek:

While also being a military man who knew nothing about running a country.While I suppose that a military dictatorship might be better than Stalinist rule, I am inclined to believe that having him in charge would lead to OTL industralization being replaced with militarization at the same cost in human lives. I recall reading that the man had plans to turn furniture factories into war factories producing wooden spare parts - tables being "bourguois" and stuff like that.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
While also being a military man who knew nothing about running a country.While I suppose that a military dictatorship might be better than Stalinist rule, I am inclined to believe that having him in charge would lead to OTL industralization being replaced with militarization at the same cost in human lives. I recall reading that the man had plans to turn furniture factories into war factories producing wooden spare parts - tables being "bourguois" and stuff like that.
Damn; a neo-Spartanist to boot.
 
Trotskist USSR means full implementation of war communism and maintaining 'permanent revolution' as the standing principle of foreign policy. This means a much more aggressive USSR, with the death toll from collectivization and industralization being noticably larger than OTL, possibly also a Soviet involvment in the Chinese Civil War (since that is were the revolution is most likely succeed).

While yes the international, permanent revolution stance is definitely going to happen war communism will probably be dismantled in short order. Trotsky tried appealing to Lenin in 1920 to end war communism, if he's in charge you can bet War Communism will go down with Lenin.

What happens with Trotsky also depends on when and how he gets the top job. If it's early in the revolution (any point after Red Oktober and before Lenin's Ban on Factions) then Trotsky might hold power to the end of the 20s before losing it but you won't see the massive purges and power plays like what happened with Stalin. The Ban on Factions ensured there would only be ONE official perspective tolerated in Soviet government which makes any form of dissension pretty much impossible.

If you remove the Ban then odds are Trotsky takes power following Lenin's death thanks to effectively being the #2 guy in the party, he probably stays in the top job until the end of the 1920s. After that he would likely stay in the USSR (legal dissent means purges and coups do not become the norm for political process like it did OTL) and remain a very influential figure among the Left faction similar to OTL.

A USSR like that is going to be VERY different from the one we all know and love. It wouldn't be a socialist utopia but it also wouldn't be Stalin's personal gulag.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
While yes the international, permanent revolution stance is definitely going to happen war communism will probably be dismantled in short order. Trotsky tried appealing to Lenin in 1920 to end war communism, if he's in charge you can bet War Communism will go down with Lenin.
Except that the "International Revolution" shtick really didn't appeal to that many people, and they really liked the realism and practicality of Stalin's "Socialism in One Country" line. Trotsky getting into more foreign adventures is going to exasperate the hell out of the Party and the Red Army.

Trotsky might hold power to the end of the 20s before losing it but you won't see the massive purges and power plays like what happened with Stalin.
Why not? This is the guy that introduced Terror Battalions into the Red Army. Bolsheviks loved a good purge.
The Ban on Factions ensured there would only be ONE official perspective tolerated in Soviet government which makes any form of dissension pretty much impossible.
Except that the Ban on Factions did shit all to prevent factions from forming; the higher-ups just used it as a generic charge against one another. Soviet politics is one long series of Politburo cliques and factions ganging up to stab each other in the back.
If you remove the Ban then odds are Trotsky takes power following Lenin's death thanks to effectively being the #2 guy in the party, he probably stays in the top job until the end of the 1920s.
Why remove the Ban when it allows you to get rid of your enemies? Why would a totalitarian state remove a dissent ban like that? Trotsky won't be the Number #2, he'll just be Trotsky minus Lenin, which tanks the T-man's stock.

Rykov is picking up after Lenin--just as he did IOTL--because nobody is going to let an arrogant, radical, zhid Bonapartist rule Russia.
 
Tukhachevksy, most likely--folks loved that guy.

And not a single soldier/general stood up for Trotsky when Kamenev, Zinoviev, and Stalin began trashing his military record in '25, despite all of them having pretty awful ones.

Which speaks loudly about Trotsky's political skills. He was in charge of the Red Army and not one member sticks up for him!:eek:
 
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