What if Stalin gave East Prussia to the DDR.

What difference would it make if Stalin let East Germany keep East Prussia along with Königsberg and Silesia, and what would it take for Stalin to ever make such a decision?

And to add to the scenario, what if instead of annexing the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin. Stalin instead turns the islands into a "North Japan" along the lines of North Korea.
 
I just don't see Stalin doing this. In 1945 he was by no means certain that he could indefinitely keep control of his occupation zone of Germany or that a united Germany would not eventually re-emerge. Hence he wanted to deprive Germany of everything east of the Oder-western Neisse line. It would be pretty strange to insist that Germany give up all of Silesia (and all of Pomerania from Stettin eastward) yet allow it to retain East Prussia, though which Germany had invaded Russia twice in the previous few decades...
 
Huh, I was actually on the verge of posting a thread with the same question.

First of all I believe Poland would still be given southern Ostprussen as compensation for losing Eastern Poland. And Memel would still be given “back” to the Lithuanian SSR.
For one, it means the DDR is somewhat stronger in the long term, due to more territory and population. While there would be no resettlement, there would likely be very large costs to reconstruct the region, though I suspect the Soviets would be more intent on aiding the efforts. The Soviets would probably also open a naval base in Königsberg, as this in OTL is currently the main base of the Soviet Baltic Fleet.
In economic prospects it would add more land for manufacturing and agriculture, and also could be a place to send dissidents. Likewise, some of DDR’s “brain drain” would be prevented as potential defectors living in East Prussia would find it much harder to leave the country.

In general it would not change that much. A more independent Prussian identity and sense of nationalism is bound to develop from being isolated from the rest of Germany. However, it would still join a newly reunified Germany once the communist regime falls, although there is the potential that some SED hardliners could try to hold out in the enclave for several months before finally backing down.


As for South Sakhalin/Kurils, it has too small of a population, and probably not enough resources, to be viable as an independent state. I don’t think the Russian population there, which was equal or larger to the Japanese settler community, would take too kindly to being part of “North Japan”. The only way this would work is if it also included Hokkaidō.
 
I think he would be far more likely to allow East Germany to keep some chunk(s) of Pomerania and/or Silesia. It was a relatively late decision on Stalin's part to give Stettin to Poland, for instance.
 
After German reunification, it'd probably be a disgruntled rather rural province voting for a lot of far left and far right political parties (economic liberalization is not going to be pretty for any East Prussian agricultural or industrial enterprises).
 
Is it possible that the territory might be used as a dumping ground for Baltic Germans?
Another thing that might be interesting with a scenario like this is language: separated from Germany proper, the Germans living there might develop their own dialect, which uses a lot more Slavic (and possibly Lithuanian) loanwords. This would be especially true if there’s immigration from the surrounding countries.
 
What difference would it make if Stalin let East Germany keep East Prussia along with Königsberg and Silesia, and what would it take for Stalin to ever make such a decision?
Aside from what David T wrote about Stalin wanting to weaken Germany as much as possible whilst he could, I thought the whole point of the Kaliningrad oblast was that it was a year round ice-free port which would be sovereign Russian territory. Either of which would make Stalin letting the GDR keep it rather odd.

If it was going to be given to anyone other than Russia then it would be Lithuania and Poland, say the former getting the northern third–roughly everything east of the Curonian Lagoon–with the latter receiving the remaining two thirds. One idea I had ages back was it being split like that but then Poland being heavily 'encouraged' to grant the Russians a 99-year, or if you want to make it really interesting a 50-year, lease on the territory.


And to add to the scenario, what if instead of annexing the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Stalin instead turns the islands into a "North Japan" along the lines of North Korea.
The islands appear to have had a population of around 17,000 people in 1945 with their main industry being fishing. What does it gain Stalin to turn them into one of the world's newest micro-states? One thing it immediately lists him is direct Soviet control of the territorial waters around them. Japan will still complain about the southern most islands, but other than that I wonder how much notice other countries would likely take of this new state including recognising it.
 
Is it possible that the territory might be used as a dumping ground for Baltic Germans?
Another thing that might be interesting with a scenario like this is language: separated from Germany proper, the Germans living there might develop their own dialect, which uses a lot more Slavic (and possibly Lithuanian) loanwords. This would be especially true if there’s immigration from the surrounding countries.
I think most of the Baltic Germans were gone by then, so maybe Volga Germans?

Then there'd be a lot of tensions between the Volga Germans and East Prussians.
 
I think most of the Baltic Germans were gone by then, so maybe Volga Germans?

Then there'd be a lot of tensions between the Volga Germans and East Prussians.
That makes sense. I wonder what effect this would have on the end of the GDR, or the end of the USSR. If the GDR collapses before the USSR does, we might see a lot of defections to the territory. On the other hand, having a territory that’s surrounded by the Eastern block might make the East Germans less willing to defy the USSR. Another thing to think about is that depending on how the borders are drawn, Poland won’t directly border the USSR- which might make them break with party line sooner.
 
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Not a whole lot likely. I mean, Stalin oversaw the bloodiest conflict in human history, and a huge chunk of the Soviet population wiped out, and another sizeable chunk traumatized and brutalized by the Nazis. It's safe to say he likely doesn't care a shit about the interests of the East Germans and the locals. Also, there's not much point shafting the Volga Germans or Baltic Germans there either. The whole reason for their forced expulsion to Central Asia is based on the suspicion that they'll form a fifth column to support the Nazis. He's not going to let them anywhere near Europe.

As for why he would possibly want to do that, perhaps he wanted to keep the East Germans and Poles at odds with each other, as per his divide and conquer strategy through the USSR. But I doubt he'd find that necessary.
 
Upper Silesia and Pomerellia would be given to Poland as it is part of their core territory and Lower Silesia and Prussia can stay German but Poland would still have Zaolzie to compensate their loss of Kresy.
 
Being separated from their home country means East Prussia will struggle economically and will bring back flashbacks of the time before World War II, which will result in East Prussia becoming a stronghold for far-right political parties calling for the region to have easier road access to the rest of Germany through Poland, which will cause some tensions with Poland. There might even some crazy loonies calling for Gdansk to be taken back into Germany to provide easier access to East Prussia.
 
After German reunification, it'd probably be a disgruntled rather rural province voting for a lot of far left and far right political parties (economic liberalization is not going to be pretty for any East Prussian agricultural or industrial enterprises).

Butterflies. There might be no Gorbachev in TTL, and no German Reunification.
 
USSR collapsed for structural reasons, and without USSR even the East German Communist want to reunite with West Germany.

There was nothing inevitable about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Economic problems do not mean political collapse (that was Gorbachev's doing) - and the Soviets had been far worse in the 1920s and 1940s.
 
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