What if: Spanish-America War of 1873

What if: Spanish-America War of 1873

In 1873 a a diplomatic dispute that occurred from October 1873 to February 1875 between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain (then in control of Cuba), during the Ten Years' War. Virginius was a fast American ship hired by Cuban insurrectionists to land men and munitions in Cuba to attack the Spanish regime there. It was captured by the Spanish, who wanted to try the men onboard (many of whom were American and British citizens) as pirates and execute them. The Spanish executed 53 of the men but stopped when the British government demanded it.

Throughout the ordeal there was loose talk that the United States might declare war on Spain. During the lengthy negotiations the Spanish government had undergone several changes in leadership. US consul Caleb Cushing ended the episode by negotiating $80,000 in reparations to be paid to the families of the Americans who were executed. British families were compensated by the Spanish government through negotiation prior to American compensation. The incident was remarkable for the use of international diplomacy for a peaceful settlement implemented by US Secretary of State Hamilton Fish, rather than opting for a costly war between the United States and Spain. The Virginius Affair started a resurgence in the US Navy following the American Civil War; its fleet had been heretofore inferior to the superior warships of Spain.

But what if there was no peaceful settlement and war broke out between the United States and Spain in 1873.

Wikipedia article related to the Virginius Affair

United States Navy and Spanish Navy in 1873

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Spain was in the midst of various civil wars at the time, so I imagine the US makes out quite nicely.

Interestingly, one of the main leaders of the Cuban War, Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, was an advocate for US annexation. The US may end up annexing Cuba, which I imagine would be a Republican-leaning state.

A big knock-on might be the GOP winning the 1876 election without any dealmaking.
 
Spain was in the midst of various civil wars at the time, so I imagine the US makes out quite nicely.

Interestingly, one of the main leaders of the Cuban War, Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, was an advocate for US annexation. The US may end up annexing Cuba, which I imagine would be a Republican-leaning state.

A big knock-on might be the GOP winning the 1876 election without any dealmaking.
Also no certain Rough Rider will take part in this war.
 
Love the warship list!

Well, for how the invasion goes it will depend on when the US invades, and the commander in Cuba at the time. Spain itself was currently undergoing a series of revolts and an outright civil war, the Cantonal rebellion where a portion of the fleet mutinied, the Third Carlist War, and a number of other little brush fires. I'm actually not even sure Spain would be able to detach enough of its fleet or armed forces to meaningfully challenge the invasion!
 
Love the warship list!

Well, for how the invasion goes it will depend on when the US invades, and the commander in Cuba at the time. Spain itself was currently undergoing a series of revolts and an outright civil war, the Cantonal rebellion where a portion of the fleet mutinied, the Third Carlist War, and a number of other little brush fires. I'm actually not even sure Spain would be able to detach enough of its fleet or armed forces to meaningfully challenge the invasion!

A broader question might be, if the US takes Cuba and Puerto Rico without much if any opposition - might it extend the war to Spain's other colonial holdings or Spain itself? Spanish Micronesia, Rio Muni, Bioko, and Anobon would be easy pickings. The Philippines would be a bit of work to take but seizable, and perhaps the US could support the spread of Republicanism and find itself with a friend in Madrid as a result.
 
A broader question might be, if the US takes Cuba and Puerto Rico without much if any opposition - might it extend the war to Spain's other colonial holdings or Spain itself? Spanish Micronesia, Rio Muni, Bioko, and Anobon would be easy pickings. The Philippines would be a bit of work to take but seizable, and perhaps the US could support the spread of Republicanism and find itself with a friend in Madrid as a result.

My thought would be the US would take only Cuba and Puerto Rico, Spain's Pacific holdings being something beside the point in this conflict (and generally too far away from the fighting here). The loss of Cuba would cause some knock on effects in Spain, probably leading to the fall of the Republicans and maybe even the ascendancy of the Carlists as the Liberals are blamed for the loss of Cuba and Puerto Rico.
 
Also no certain Rough Rider will take part in this war.

The Creeping Cavalryman Custer will be though. since given tensions with Spain ramping up the US is liable to pull their golden (haired) boy from the frontier to lead the Cavalry. Him surviving to a ripe old age is actually possible if we avoid Little Bighorn, and we have at least a somewhat young and dynamic general becoming the defining feature of American military doctrine in the last quarter of the 19th century rather than a slowly decaying Civil War generation getting into their senior years. That will have a real impact on the slowdown of the US frontier military tradition... possiblely resulting in a more Assimilationist view towards the Latin Americans (especially since the Cubans are so "White" and civilized that they're liable to be acceptable) which may just encourage some slightly more direct adventurism.

There's also the question of the Phillipenes and Hawaii; this is pre-major projection of power by the US into the Pacific, after all, so they can't really contest the former and don't have the same level of sugar interests in the later that could turn the region into an annexationable republic. The situation with Teller is thus reversed: by the time Hawaii is ripe for plucking, CUBAN sugar interests are liable to try to stop the direct annexation to avoid the competition, and economic interests pivoting more towards the South American market than the Pacific due to not taking the Phillipenes is liable to make a naval base seem like more than enough. We could very well see the Kingdom of Hawaii ending up a Protectorate of, likely, Britain and the Phillipenes getting peddled off to somebody or another: maybe Belgium? Leopold II made an offer for the islands. Or Germany? Bismark's colonial policy is against it, but if it means access to the Chinese market...
 
There's also the question of the Philippines and Hawaii; this is pre-major projection of power by the US into the Pacific, after all, so they can't really contest the former and don't have the same level of sugar interests in the later that could turn the region into an annexationable republic. The situation with Teller is thus reversed: by the time Hawaii is ripe for plucking, CUBAN sugar interests are liable to try to stop the direct annexation to avoid the competition, and economic interests pivoting more towards the South American market than the Pacific due to not taking the Phillipenes is liable to make a naval base seem like more than enough. We could very well see the Kingdom of Hawaii ending up a Protectorate of, likely, Britain and the Phillipenes getting peddled off to somebody or another: maybe Belgium? Leopold II made an offer for the islands. Or Germany? Bismark's colonial policy is against it, but if it means access to the Chinese market...

The Philippines may win its own freedom, or it be sold part by part by Spain. (Luzon to America, or the British, the Visayas to France, or Germany, etc.)

With Hawaii, the British never really had a thing with Hawaii for the most part. Even if it ended up as a Protectorate, it be sold to the United States, become a part of Australia. Or it becomes a quasi-protectorate status vis-à-vis the United States. (The US would not tolerate any other country annexing or dominating Hawaii, and that had been true since the 1840's.)
 
I'm curious, even though annexing Spanish territory like Cuba and Puerto Rico, would this not in some way also allow the annexation of Santo Domingo as well given thats been in deadlock for a few years.
 
A broader question might be, if the US takes Cuba and Puerto Rico without much if any opposition - might it extend the war to Spain's other colonial holdings or Spain itself? Spanish Micronesia, Rio Muni, Bioko, and Anobon would be easy pickings.
Macaronesia was and is considered a part of the Spanish metropole, not a colony. Taking them would mean abandoning any pretense to the Monroe doctrine (a pretty useless idea TBH, but it still had a lot of impact on US foreign policy for over a century). It's also liable to draw other Europeans into the war on Spain's side if they see the US making what they see as a land grab in Europe. Africa is a possibility, but there's not much to entice the US there.
 
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Micronesia was and is considered a part of the Spanish metropole, not a colony. Taking them would mean abandoning any pretense to the Monroe doctrine (a pretty useless idea TBH, but it still had a lot of impact on US foreign policy for over a century). It's also liable to draw other Europeans into the war on Spain's side if they see the US making what they see as a land grab in Europe. Africa is a possibility, but there's not much to entice the US there.

How can Micronesia, which today is comprised of two US territories and three US protectorates, but part of the Spanish metropole?

Are you thinking of Macaronesia?
 
The Creeping Cavalryman Custer will be though. since given tensions with Spain ramping up the US is liable to pull their golden (haired) boy from the frontier to lead the Cavalry. Him surviving to a ripe old age is actually possible if we avoid Little Bighorn, and we have at least a somewhat young and dynamic general becoming the defining feature of American military doctrine in the last quarter of the 19th century rather than a slowly decaying Civil War generation getting into their senior years. That will have a real impact on the slowdown of the US frontier military tradition... possiblely resulting in a more Assimilationist view towards the Latin Americans (especially since the Cubans are so "White" and civilized that they're liable to be acceptable) which may just encourage some slightly more direct adventurism.

There's also the question of the Phillipenes and Hawaii; this is pre-major projection of power by the US into the Pacific, after all, so they can't really contest the former and don't have the same level of sugar interests in the later that could turn the region into an annexationable republic. The situation with Teller is thus reversed: by the time Hawaii is ripe for plucking, CUBAN sugar interests are liable to try to stop the direct annexation to avoid the competition, and economic interests pivoting more towards the South American market than the Pacific due to not taking the Phillipenes is liable to make a naval base seem like more than enough. We could very well see the Kingdom of Hawaii ending up a Protectorate of, likely, Britain and the Phillipenes getting peddled off to somebody or another: maybe Belgium? Leopold II made an offer for the islands. Or Germany? Bismark's colonial policy is against it, but if it means access to the Chinese market...

The difference between Cuba and Hawaii is that Hawaii is far more important geostrategically. Pearl Harbor is the only good naval base for hundreds (thousands?) of miles/kilometers - something that doesn't hold as true for Cuba. At the very least, the US is going to get some kind of permanent cession over Pearl Harbor the way it does in Guantanamo.

Americans had been mucking around asia looking for colonies and market access for a while too. Commodore Perry annexed the Bonin islands, proposed that the US annex Taiwan, and of course forcibly opened Japan. In the 1860s the US skirmished with Korea over gaining access to the country. Some Americans had purchased a slice of Sabah (referred to as Ellena) in was is today Kimanis in Sabah and only sold it off in 1875. I doubt holding Cuba will change this.

I think the US would still be inclined to grab an island like Guam here too.

I wonder what the effect of an 1873 war in asia would mean
 
The difference between Cuba and Hawaii is that Hawaii is far more important geostrategically. Pearl Harbor is the only good naval base for hundreds (thousands?) of miles/kilometers - something that doesn't hold as true for Cuba. At the very least, the US is going to get some kind of permanent cession over Pearl Harbor the way it does in Guantanamo.

Americans had been mucking around asia looking for colonies and market access for a while too. Commodore Perry annexed the Bonin islands, proposed that the US annex Taiwan, and of course forcibly opened Japan. In the 1860s the US skirmished with Korea over gaining access to the country. Some Americans had purchased a slice of Sabah (referred to as Ellena) in was is today Kimanis in Sabah and only sold it off in 1875. I doubt holding Cuba will change this.

I think the US would still be inclined to grab an island like Guam here too.

I wonder what the effect of an 1873 war in asia would mean
Hawaii is not even part of the United States yet, still being a independent kingdom, would it remain so with a United States to busy absorbing the former Spanish possession it took if it won the Spanish-America war of 1873.
 
Hawaii is not even part of the United States yet, still being a independent kingdom, would it remain so with a United States to busy absorbing the former Spanish possession it took if it won the Spanish-America war of 1873.

There still plenty of time to get around to that. The US would not tolerate any other country annexing or dominating Hawaii, and that had been true since the 1840's.

Failing annexation, the islands ends up as a quasi-protectorate status thing.
 
There still plenty of time to get around to that. The US would not tolerate any other country annexing or dominating Hawaii, and that had been true since the 1840's.

Failing annexation, the islands ends up as a quasi-protectorate status thing.
Like the Philippines of OTL.
 
Also no certain Rough Rider will take part in this war.

The Creeping Cavalryman Custer will be though. since given tensions with Spain ramping up the US is liable to pull their golden (haired) boy from the frontier to lead the Cavalry

Actually, one Nathan Bedford Forrest had sent a request to General Sherman to command the cavalry should war break out. Sherman wanted to take him up on it. I can't see Sherman turning him down (I think he was understanding about Ft. Pillow, having marched to the Sea in the fashion he did) and a lot of other ex Confederates, which would have a positive effect toward reconstruction.
 
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