What if Spain invaded Australia in the 1790s?

When Britian set up it's colony on the Australian continent in 1788, it was merely meant as a penal colony, but Alessandro Malaspina, a officer in the Spanish Navy in 1793, reported that Britain was using it's colony for commercial reasons and to seek out resources after taking part in a expedition to Sydney.

Specifically, he believed that the convicts were 'the means and not the object of the enterprise' and believed that Britain was mustering an army of two or three thousand 'castaway bandits' for use in a assault on Spanish colonies in the Pacific.

With this fear in mind, the Spanish military, with the approval of King Carlos IV after it was proposed by deputy commander Jose de Bustamante y Guerra, began drawing up plans to invade and conquer the colony.

Their plan was to lay siege on Sydney with a fleet of 100 boats, built in Uruguay with the goal of forcing a British surrender and expulsion from the continent. Among the weapons to be used was heated ammunition that could set fire to ships and buildings on impact.

With King Carlos' approval, Guerra was sent to Uruguay to begin building the ships, but the invasion never took place.

But what if the plan went ahead and Spain attempted to invade Australia in the 1790s?
 
When Britian set up it's colony on the Australian continent in 1788, it was merely meant as a penal colony, but Alessandro Malaspina, a officer in the Spanish Navy in 1793, reported that Britain was using it's colony for commercial reasons and to seek out resources after taking part in a expedition to Sydney.

Specifically, he believed that the convicts were 'the means and not the object of the enterprise' and believed that Britain was mustering an army of two or three thousand 'castaway bandits' for use in a assault on Spanish colonies in the Pacific.

With this fear in mind, the Spanish military, with the approval of King Carlos IV after it was proposed by deputy commander Jose de Bustamante y Guerra, began drawing up plans to invade and conquer the colony.

Their plan was to lay siege on Sydney with a fleet of 100 boats, built in Uruguay with the goal of forcing a British surrender and expulsion from the continent. Among the weapons to be used was heated ammunition that could set fire to ships and buildings on impact.

With King Carlos' approval, Guerra was sent to Uruguay to begin building the ships, but the invasion never took place.

But what if the plan went ahead and Spain attempted to invade Australia in the 1790s?

The Colony isn't too big yet and is far from British help. Ofcourse the EIC might try to defend it by royal orders maybe...

Okay, colony gets destroyed at the time. Assuming Spain gets still wrecked by the French during the Napoleonic wars they won't try to absorb Australia even though it would be a perfect place for them.

The British will still come back around 1816 or so to restart colonisation.

A Spanish attack on Australia, if succesful, will only delay British occupation.
 
TAssuming Spain gets still wrecked by the French during the Napoleonic wars they won't try to absorb Australia even though it would be a perfect place for them.

Even if Spain holds off France, after the French Revolution all the monarchs have a very strong interest in either eliminating France or putting the Bourbons or a Cadet branch on that throne. Australia is going to be forgotten by Spain. To Carlos, even without Napoleon the French Republic is a threat to his throne, unless it decays internally (in which case, all the peasants see why the French were dumb)
 
What happens if the Spanish finds gold there?

More colonists from New Spain will be sendt to enforce occupation. But ofcourse, there still is British danger in later wars. So unless they don't put a garisson and a fortification it could fall anyway. Gold makes the British more likely to return to take it back.
 
Even if Spain holds off France, after the French Revolution all the monarchs have a very strong interest in either eliminating France or putting the Bourbons or a Cadet branch on that throne. Australia is going to be forgotten by Spain. To Carlos, even without Napoleon the French Republic is a threat to his throne, unless it decays internally (in which case, all the peasants see why the French were dumb)

Assuming a Trafalgar still happens means British domination on the Sea. So either forgotten or forced, Spain cannot colonise and keep Australia. That needs a secured New Spain with no rebellion there. They will have to provide the defence and colonisation.
 
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Assuming a Trafalgar still happens means British domination on the Sea. So either forgotteb or forced, Spain cannot colonise keep Australia. That needs a secured New Spain with no rebellion there. Thet will have to provide the defence and colonisation.

Well, the butterflies might mean the Spanish don't lose their fleet at an Trafalgar Equivalent, but since Carlos cares about hi own throne if the British reminded him Australia existed he'd probably be like "oh yeah. Well, it was yours to begin with right? Sorry about that. Anyways we need to deal with Napoleon (or if he choses another career and there is no Empire whatever First Republic leader)
 
When Britian set up it's colony on the Australian continent in 1788, it was merely meant as a penal colony, but Alessandro Malaspina, a officer in the Spanish Navy in 1793, reported that Britain was using it's colony for commercial reasons and to seek out resources after taking part in a expedition to Sydney.

Specifically, he believed that the convicts were 'the means and not the object of the enterprise' and believed that Britain was mustering an army of two or three thousand 'castaway bandits' for use in a assault on Spanish colonies in the Pacific.

With this fear in mind, the Spanish military, with the approval of King Carlos IV after it was proposed by deputy commander Jose de Bustamante y Guerra, began drawing up plans to invade and conquer the colony.

Their plan was to lay siege on Sydney with a fleet of 100 boats, built in Uruguay with the goal of forcing a British surrender and expulsion from the continent. Among the weapons to be used was heated ammunition that could set fire to ships and buildings on impact.

With King Carlos' approval, Guerra was sent to Uruguay to begin building the ships, but the invasion never took place.

But what if the plan went ahead and Spain attempted to invade Australia in the 1790s?
Even if Spain had seized the Australian continent in 1788, it would have been quickly recovered by the United Kingdom which has a stronger military and would have been reluctant to cede its commercial interest in controlling the southern continent.
 
Well, the butterflies might mean the Spanish don't lose their fleet at an Trafalgar Equivalent, but since Carlos cares about hi own throne if the British reminded him Australia existed he'd probably be like "oh yeah. Well, it was yours to begin with right? Sorry about that. Anyways we need to deal with Napoleon (or if he choses another career and there is no Empire whatever First Republic leader)

Said Carlos had no trouble whatsoever not to only to make peace with France, but to effectively side with it OTL.
 
This is Napoleon France we're talking about, not Republican France (which needed to be destroyed in his eyes)

Nope, when the San Ildefonso treaty was signed (august 1796), General Bonaparte was only a talented leader in the service of the Republic.
 
Wow... I did a refresher. It looks like reality isn't realistic... I didn't remember Carlos had no sense of self preservation
 
What is the British response to having one of their colonies taken over? It won't be to have a spot of tea and go play cricket. Empires typically don't like having a piece of it taken away. Even before Trafalgar, the British Navy ruled the seas. They can bombard Spanish colonies whenever and wherever they like. They could easily put an effort into taking Uruguay or Buenos Aires, and with different players, and an initial upfront emphasis, it is probable that Spain doesn't fare so well as they did a decade later. At a bare minimum, Britain will gear up to kick Spain out of Australia. OTL, after Spain reversed course after they flubbed the War of the Pyrenees and were at war with Britain, Britain didn't really pay them much heed. If Spain were stupid enough to take the war to British soil, Britain isn't going to be so kind.
 
Wow... I did a refresher. It looks like reality isn't realistic... I didn't remember Carlos had no sense of self preservation

Why not ? The French did not want to expand into Spain and the Spanish peasants were not rising in Revolution. Hoping in with the most important military power in Europe could offer some advantages, while licking his wounds and grumping about cousin Louis achieved nothing.
 
Wow... I did a refresher. It looks like reality isn't realistic... I didn't remember Carlos had no sense of self preservation

I find it funny that you're insulting Charles IV when it was NAPOLEONIC FRANCE that screwed him over-the same government you thought he would side with over Republican France. There are literally no indications I can find that show that siding with Republican France was a terrible idea. If you have any evidence to the contrary I'd love to see it. Not really holding my breath though-people here constantly insult Godoy and Charles IV as the worst but usually have very little to back their insults up.
 
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