What if Spain got East Timor when the Iberian Union split?

raharris1973

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In OTL, when the Portugal regained its independence from Spain about 1640ish, Portugal kept nearly all its colonial possessions that had not been poached by the Dutch. The one pre-Iberian Union Portuguese territory that was left to Spain was the exclave of Ceuta in Morocco.

What if Spain had kept an additional Portuguese territories?

For example- East Timor. Not much of a big deal for Portugal at the time, what if Spain got it in the split and it was added on to the Spanish East Indies?

OK, from there let's put a butterfly net on the ATL to keep the rest of history the same as OTL.

Fast forward to the Spanish American War, does the US annex East Timor along with the Philippines and Guam?

If the US chooses not to grab East Timor, might the Germans purchase it along with their Micronesia purchase?
 
I wouldn't say it wasn't a big deal. The Portuguese favored the East much more than Brazil until the late 17th century. That said, East Timor may be taken by the Dutch if it's held by the Spanish at the time, since they're interested in the region and were conquering Portuguese outposts during the Iberian Union.
 

raharris1973

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East Timor may be taken by the Dutch if it's held by the Spanish at the time

It could be. I guess it was not taken over in OTL by the Dutch because even though they were grabbing several Portuguese properties, they were running out of steam by the time a push to Ease Timor became possible.

The long-term consequences of this are that East Timor shares the developmental history of West Timor and the DEI. The population is more pagan, Protestant and Muslim than Catholic, although there will be a Catholic presence.

This strikes me as a minimal knock-ons or butterflies solution without very exotic results. If we end up with a 20th century at all similar to our, East Timor is likely to share the history of the Indonesian independence struggle and not be a unique international issue.

If Spain keeps East Timor, the results can get more exotic.

For whatever its worth, Spain would have a presence a little closer to northern Australia. Having territory in Timor and the PI might spark greater Spanish interest in some of the territories in between or in Papua New Guinea. I think East Timor would become more strongly Catholic than OTL, and by the end of the 19th century there could be some cultural mixing with the Filipinos.

If Spain keeps the territory, that is one thing. But, I wonder if it Timor has anyplace suitable for a naval base. The Americans may occupy it in the Spanish-American war. East Timor could be a back-up base for Manila and become a factor in War Plan Orange. And it would make the US and Australia neighbors.

If Spain does not keep it, and America does not take it, the Germans might purchase it with Micronesia. In which case if there is a WWI, it becomes an Australian mandate like the eastern half of PNG.
 
There are alot of Butterflies to consider here, if Luzon stays having a heavily pagan interior due to the famine that strucked them being butterflied which will affect the history of the Spanish east indies, which means majority of Luzon will be lost like the way they lost Ternate and Manado.
 
I was actually researching a little bit of Timorese history as part of an Australian timeline I've been working on. My understanding is that Portuguese Timor was mostly independent throughout its history, with a Portuguese/Dutch/Timorese creole culture which officially pledged itself to Portugal but in practice ignored the governors the Portuguese sent. I do question if they will willingly submit to the Spanish.
 

raharris1973

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I was actually researching a little bit of Timorese history as part of an Australian timeline I've been working on. My understanding is that Portuguese Timor was mostly independent throughout its history, with a Portuguese/Dutch/Timorese creole culture which officially pledged itself to Portugal but in practice ignored the governors the Portuguese sent. I do question if they will willingly submit to the Spanish.

On the one hand, very good point on de facto independence, and thus a probable East Timorean ability to keep the Spanish out.

On the other hand, maybe they are motivated to accept Spanish "protection" as an alternative to Dutch conquest?

Ternate and Manado.

Quickly refresh my memory on OTL's history of those islands. Were they Spanish occupied, then independent, and then Dutch by the 19th or 20th century?
 
On the one hand, very good point on de facto independence, and thus a probable East Timorean ability to keep the Spanish out.

On the other hand, maybe they are motivated to accept Spanish "protection" as an alternative to Dutch conquest?



Quickly refresh my memory on OTL's history of those islands. Were they Spanish occupied, then independent, and then Dutch by the 19th or 20th century?
Actually, they were under spanish but the Spanish transferred them to portugal due to losing them into a revolt and cession to the dutch, I think the Northern Half of Luzon could have ended in that fate as well.
 
On the one hand, very good point on de facto independence, and thus a probable East Timorean ability to keep the Spanish out.

On the other hand, maybe they are motivated to accept Spanish "protection" as an alternative to Dutch conquest?

I think it depends on how much economic leeway the Spanish are willing to give them. There is a market for slaves, deer horn and hide, and sandalwood coming out of Timor, and they certainly wouldn't want to end up as servants of the VOC with the company sucking up all their profits. The Spanish probably will want to control some trade, for example directing sandalwood to Manila for trade with the Chinese, but I don't think they would be quite as controlling as the VOC, so they could very well see the Spanish as an acceptable alternative.
 
Portuguese sovereignty over Timor was nominal until the first governor was sent to Lifau 1702. Real power was in the hands of the Dominican friars and the mestiço Topasses whom along with Chinese traders from Macau controlled the sandalwood trade beginning in the 1630s. They often fought with the Dutch and even with the Portuguese authorities.
 
The Iberian Union made the Portuguese sitting ducks, as their string of forts and ports got attacked by Dutch, French, and English privateers and competitors. I do not believe the Spanish did much in the way of defending them. That being said, what good are Islands and trading forts if you don't send anyone there? The Castilians didn't have the connections needed to acquire spices, porcelain, textiles, and various luxury goods that sold so well in Europe. They got some later one when they got their American possessions, but then it was because they had mountains of gold to pay the achinese with, rather than doing what the Portuguese and Dutch would often do, which was act as traders of Asian goods with other Asians. Though I might be thinking more of the Dutch in East Asia, where they traded between the Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans, then using the profits to buy things to send back to Europe.
 
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