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Let's assume in WW2 US isn't willing to invest in the Manhattan Project, so in order to defeat Japan the Allies might have to go ahead with Operation Downfall which will lead to million of deaths. If US doesn't have to nuclear deterrent and if Stalin is more greedy than in OTL and attacks the Allies in 1947 or later over various pretexts (Iran occupation/ Korea/ maybe even partition of Japan, or he simply supports Tito's scheme's over Free City of Triest)
How would WW3 go? IMHO I think the Soviets will probably reach the channel in 1-1,5 years; How would a Soviet Sealion go? Would they be able to achieve Air Superiority over Britain? They were adept at river crossing and probably with ATL experience in amphibious attack of Hokkaido they might have a better chance of pulling an invasion of British Islands than Hitler ever did.
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