What if South Tyrol stayed in Austria after WWI?

fashbasher

Banned
Here's a map showing the linguistic dispersion of this region as of 1880:

Ethnic_Distribution_South_Tyrol_Census_1880.png

Assume that Austria is able to keep it after WWI. I think it would be interesting to see how it evolves for a few reasons:

a) Even in 1880, it had a substantial Romance-language minority that could lead to irredentism.

b) It's on the "wrong side of the Alps" for Austria. I count eleven major roads connecting it to Italian-speaking areas compared with only two, one of which is the very strategic Brenner Pass, to mainland Austria. The parts that border Italy are fairly flat and permeable by Alpine standards.

c) Relations between the two fascist powers (Germany and Italy) would be interesting, especially if an Anschluss occurs. Southern South Tyrol is close to some very populous Italian-speaking areas (Trentino and the Veneto) and the idea of Nazi troops so close to the Italian heartland could terrify Italian fascists. There could even be a Korea-type situation in which the Italian-leaning Fatherland Front flees to South Tyrol and is backed by Italians where mainland Austria remains under Nazi control because Hitler struggles to send troops through the two narrow passes.
 
If Italy is denied South Tyrol as well as the other promises which were reneged on then it is likely to further fuel the Italian imperialism of the interwar period. To avoid completely alienating Italy the Entente might have to expand the Italian gains in the Balkans or else somehow convince Italy that it's the Americans who won't let Italy have anything more.

I think that if things progress OTL then Italy will care more about retribution on the dishonest Entente than about conflict with Germany over South Tyrol. Afterall WWII Germany didn't let a significant German population living under Italian Rule get in the way of good relations between Berlin and Rome, they just patiently waited until Italy capitulated and then quietly annexed the area.
 
My 2 cents: From day 1 your are going to have a full hostile Italy, literally hateful. 600000 death for literally nothing while having Trento full exposed to an Austrian invasion, holy fuck the population is going bongers... This means that everything that could piss of the Entate is getting Rome approval, alias Germany is going to have a support in Italy from the 20s and every chance of revisioning of Versails is getting Italy approval ; fascist/nationalist are gonna win without any march on Rome. Italian intellectuals are going to question the choice that lead to follow the Entate in the war giving the old anti-french sentiment a HUGE boost, and generatig a nice antibritish sentiment, a pro German attitude is possible. After the Fascist/nationalist get in power they are probably going to scrap every trade deal with the Entate opting for Germany and USSR.
 

fashbasher

Banned
My 2 cents: From day 1 your are going to have a full hostile Italy, literally hateful. 600000 death for literally nothing while having Trento full exposed to an Austrian invasion, holy fuck the population is going bongers... This means that everything that could piss of the Entate is getting Rome approval, alias Germany is going to have a support in Italy from the 20s and every chance of revisioning of Versails is getting Italy approval ; fascist/nationalist are gonna win without any march on Rome. Italian intellectuals are going to question the choice that lead to follow the Entate in the war giving the old anti-french sentiment a HUGE boost, and generatig a nice antibritish sentiment, a pro German attitude is possible. After the Fascist/nationalist get in power they are probably going to scrap every trade deal with the Entate opting for Germany and USSR.

Yeah, I can understand. South Tyrol is not in an easily defensible position for any German power and is very easy to breach the Northern Italian heartland of Trento and Veneto as it's on the "wrong side" of the Alps. Even today it'd be only about 30 km from Trento, a large Italian-speaking city, to the border at Salurn. And they also could (and in WWI did) cut right into Lombardy via the Stelvio Pass. Lovely.
 
Top