What if Smuts won the 1948 South African General Election?

MrHola

Banned
In OTL, the United Party was very close to winning. The National Party won only five seats more then the UP. Let’s say butterflies switches the number around and the United Party wins the 1948 elections.

I assume that Jan Smuts still dies in 1950. He is followed by J.G.N. Strauss. Now, what happens to the National Party? Is Apartheid dead in the water? What happens to South Africa on a whole?
 
I thought Apartheid was driven by poorer Afrikaaners who unified to show their unhappiness at the decision of their govt to enter WW2?

Presumably the rest of white South Africa was too busy getting rich to be that bothered.
 
The Afrikaaner Nationalists opposed immigration from England, and turned back White settlers from there, feeling that they would disturb the balance of power between British and Boer descendants. Thus, a UP victory would probably mean an increased White population. They also wouldn't alienate the Coloureds, so White minority rule (without "Petty Apartheid") might survive longer in this TL.
 
The Afrikaaner Nationalists opposed immigration from England, and turned back White settlers from there, feeling that they would disturb the balance of power between British and Boer descendants. Thus, a UP victory would probably mean an increased White population. They also wouldn't alienate the Coloureds, so White minority rule (without "Petty Apartheid") might survive longer in this TL.

Out of curiosity, why do you keep capitalizing "White"?
 
I thought you capitalised nationalities, ethnicities and such in standard English. Am I mistaken?
No, you're right.
It is just that white, coloured and such doesn't count as full ethnicities, or something in that general vein, so they aren't capitalised. Mostly.

The possibility of a more limited, and more long-lived, apartheid is... interesting. The first thing makes it better, while the second, not so much.
 
I thought you capitalised nationalities, ethnicities and such in standard English. Am I mistaken?

But white is neither a nationality or ethnicity. I'd just leave it uncapitalised - that's what the majority of sources seem to do.

Anyway, Apartheid would probably take a bit of a beating from the election loss, but I'd be surprised if the National Party drop it straight away. The next couple of elections might be fought on the issue as well. Without the personality of Smuts, there is a possibility of UP loss in those as well, but if they survive, with increased immigration from the Empire, and (slightly) increased suffrage for the "coloured" population, the balance of power might then shift firmly away from the Nationalists. Also, I seem to remember that a reason for the NP power was the disproportionate weight given to rural constituencies - in a UP-dominated SA, this might be reformed.

I'd assume that more conservative elements in the UP might eventually break and form a cross-ethnic conservative party with the NP, possibly in protest against black suffrage?
 
No, you're right.
It is just that white, coloured and such doesn't count as full ethnicities, or something in that general vein, so they aren't capitalised. Mostly.

The possibility of a more limited, and more long-lived, apartheid is... interesting. The first thing makes it better, while the second, not so much.

Actually in the case of South Africa, White and Coloured should be capitalised because they did (and still do) count as legal designations for the purpose of apartheid laws under the previous regime and for the purpose of qualifying for affirmative action under the current government.
 
Actually in the case of South Africa, White and Coloured should be capitalised because they did (and still do) count as legal designations for the purpose of apartheid laws under the previous regime and for the purpose of qualifying for affirmative action under the current government.
Oh.:eek:
A bit lucky that I wrote mostly, and, of course, White and Coloured isn't capitalised in Swedish, just as German isn't capitalised, so there would be no such distinction in Swedish text.
 
Actually in the case of South Africa, White and Coloured should be capitalised because they did (and still do) count as legal designations for the purpose of apartheid laws under the previous regime and for the purpose of qualifying for affirmative action under the current government.

Well, thanks everyone for clearing it up.
 
In OTL, the United Party was very close to winning. The National Party won only five seats more then the UP. Let’s say butterflies switches the number around and the United Party wins the 1948 elections.

I assume that Jan Smuts still dies in 1950. He is followed by J.G.N. Strauss. Now, what happens to the National Party? Is Apartheid dead in the water? What happens to South Africa on a whole?

There were a couple of things that might have done this.

The South African constitution had a method for adjusting constituencies. Because of the problems of travel in rural constituencies, they were given a variance. After figuring up the number of voters in a hypothetical constituency, the sizes of the various constituencies would be set such that rural ones would have only eighty percent of that figure, while urban ones would have a hundred twenty percent to compensate.

Nationalist voters were in the countryside, United (and Labour) voters in the cities. That was how the Nationalists won a small but clear majority with only forty percent of the vote!

Smuts had been presented with a proposal for redistricting. The variance was no longer necessary, due to the spread of motor cars, the cinema, wireless, &c.; a rural parliamentarian could see everyone in his district with the same ease that his urban colleague could. But he didn't bother.

Even if he hadn't . . . .the South African Parliament then had contained four "Native Representatives", elected by the black population. (White men, of course.) A proposal had been made to increase this delegation to ten. The six extra votes would have given the United Party and its partners a small majority.
 
Now, my knowledge of that aspect of South African politics sucks, but I can see the UP keeping the immigration moving faster. I can also see them moving more gardually towards full majority rule, but that would probably take just as long as it did in OTL.

Big change though - this would assume more of the wealth would be spread out to the black Africans. This would raise their standard of living as well, which would hurt the communist-dominated ANC of the time. Instead of the change coming by the defeat of the National Party as in OTL, perhaps the United Party and its rivals later on (which may include the ANC, certainly would include people like Biko later on) change the country slowly. That could have effects for not only South Africa but all of decolonization in Africa.
 
could not the nationalist party have tweaked their platform and basically put it so as long as your white and willing to become part of our culture you can move here.

the boers did this before as long as you were basically willing to convert you were allowed this is why there is some french boers
 
could not the nationalist party have tweaked their platform and basically put it so as long as your white and willing to become part of our culture you can move here.

the boers did this before as long as you were basically willing to convert you were allowed this is why there is some french boers

Try selling that one to Malan. ASB. Malan hated the Brits, as most Afrikaners did. What did Smuts in was King George VI's trip to South Africa in 1947, which caused widespread Afrikaner resentment.

Much of the post-war Afrikaner leadership were influenced by Nazi Germany, which rather grew their idea of racial superiority.
 
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