What If Sidonio Pais isn't assassinated?

I know that many of you might not know who Pais is, but he was an important figure in the Portuguese Republic, but was assassinated in 1918. So the question is, what if he had not been assassinated? Or at the least have him survive the attack. But the question is, how would history be changed if Pais manages to live on past 1918?
 
Well, the first republic is probably saved. That is, is you consider Sidónio's República Nova to be part of the first republic. Sidónio was an authoritarian president, and he'd probably remain so, but he wouldn't be as atthoritarian as Salazar and his regime wouldn't assume so many quasi-fascist characteristics as the Estado Novo. As he was pretty popular, he'll still likely use multi-party elections to legitimize in power. The opposition won't be able to boycott them forever, they'll eventually have to participate and probably lose. Economic growth is grater and society more stable during the interwar period. Transition to a full democracy should be relatively simple after he dies.

Now, what I really don't know is what he'd do once WWII erupts. He was known for his pro-german sympathies...
 
Perhaps, but he would be 67 in 1939, if he lived so long. He might be dead or out of power.

Depends about his health. 67 wasn't anymore so extremely high age on 1939.

But I think that Portugal would remain still neutral like in OTL. Of course it depends how smart Pais is. Franco too was definitely fascist but he understand remain out of the war.
 
Yeah, it's true that he'll be quite old. Still, it's possible that he'll be in power.

The reason why I was thinking of WWII was not so much because of ideology (Sidónio was arguably less fascist than Salazar, he was more of a conservative nationalist than anything else imo) but more because of his outspoken pro-german sympathies (from what I've head, the man would have been very happy if Portugal had broke with the Entente and joined the central powers in WWI). But yeah, I agree that he would probably keep Portugal neutral if he was smart enough (and he was no idiot as far as we know).

Now, if he's dead and democracy is back, then I guess it becomes more likely for Portugal to join the allies (that is, if the allies let them).
 
Yeah, it's true that he'll be quite old. Still, it's possible that he'll be in power.

The reason why I was thinking of WWII was not so much because of ideology (Sidónio was arguably less fascist than Salazar, he was more of a conservative nationalist than anything else imo) but more because of his outspoken pro-german sympathies (from what I've head, the man would have been very happy if Portugal had broke with the Entente and joined the central powers in WWI). But yeah, I agree that he would probably keep Portugal neutral if he was smart enough (and he was no idiot as far as we know).

Now, if he's dead and democracy is back, then I guess it becomes more likely for Portugal to join the allies (that is, if the allies let them).

Well, that pro-German not necessarility mean that he would be big fan of nazis. But if Portugal becomes democracy again before WW2, it is probably side of Allies.

Just wondering, how big affect Portugal would has on WW2. Probaly sbout same as on WW1.
 
Just wondering, how big affect Portugal would has on WW2. Probaly sbout same as on WW1.

I think Salazar actually offered to join after the Japanese took East Timor, but the Americans turned him down because they thought Portugal would be more of a liability than anything else. The only thing that Portugal really had to offer the allies was the Azores islands as nice startegic place to set militairy bases, and they actually allowed them to do that while remaining neutral through lease agreements. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugal_during_World_War_II

Still, I think that it's fairly likely that a more enthusiastic government would eventually persuade the Wallies to let them join if they do it soon enough. There may be actual militairy confrontation for the Azores in this scenario, and Hitler may consider an invasion of Portugal through Spain, or he may even try to push Franco to join the war on his side.
 
I think Salazar actually offered to join after the Japanese took East Timor, but the Americans turned him down because they thought Portugal would be more of a liability than anything else. The only thing that Portugal really had to offer the allies was the Azores islands as nice startegic place to set militairy bases, and they actually allowed them to do that while remaining neutral through lease agreements. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugal_during_World_War_II

Still, I think that it's fairly likely that a more enthusiastic government would eventually persuade the Wallies to let them join if they do it soon enough. There may be actual militairy confrontation for the Azores in this scenario, and Hitler may consider an invasion of Portugal through Spain, or he may even try to push Franco to join the war on his side.

More plausible is then that Hitler try pressure Franco invade Portugal than he would invade Spain. Even Hitler would undestand that it would break up quickly fascist alliance.
 
More plausible is then that Hitler try pressure Franco invade Portugal than he would invade Spain. Even Hitler would undestand that it would break up quickly fascist alliance.

I wasn't thinking of him invading Spain. He could just ask the neutral country for permission to pass. Franco would probably concede just to avoid angering him. But that said, I'm not really sure if that would be worth it. Portugal may not be enough of a problem to justify a full-fledged invasion of the mainland. The Nazis would probably only try to take over the Azores.
 
Top