What if Shan Kai Sheik defeated Mao Tse-Tung…

What if Shan Kai Sheik defeated Mao Tse-Tung?


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Xen

Banned
Interesting folks, if Mao and the Communists control Manchuria that would give them a base to carry out attacks against Nationalist China probably in the form of guerilla activity and terrorist warfare (car bombs, etc). There's not likely to be a Korean War, so we still have two Korea's, but NK will be weaker. Korea may be reunited in the early 1990s without the war.

Nationalist China will be close to the west, as the Communists are right on their border, and Chiang considered them to be a disease of the heart. So mainland China exists in Martial Law for four decades but eventually eases this and becomes democratic.

Curious though what happens to Uighuristan? Perhaps it is Uighur SSR and the newest province in the Soviet Union? Tibet remains independent, and Soviet bases are built in Manchuria, and Mongolia.

Chiang might help the French out in the Indochina War, and if not the French he could help the US out as the US secures the South, China secures the North, permanent US and Chinese military facilities are built in reaction to guerilla activity deep in the jungles, but without the steady stream of supplies from China, Russia and other contributors. Maybe a series of cease-fires is called in Vietnam but is often broken and called again after the west wears them out a bit.
 
Curious though what happens to Uighuristan? Perhaps it is Uighur SSR and the newest province in the Soviet Union? Tibet remains independent, and Soviet bases are built in Manchuria, and Mongolia.

The Uighur SSR sounds fairly likely. At the very least, it would be another Soviet puppet state.
Chiang might help the French out in the Indochina War, and if not the French he could help the US out as the US secures the South, China secures the North, permanent US and Chinese military facilities are built in reaction to guerilla activity deep in the jungles, but without the steady stream of supplies from China, Russia and other contributors. Maybe a series of cease-fires is called in Vietnam but is often broken and called again after the west wears them out a bit.

I'd tend to think that the KMT wouldn't support France in Indochina. Nationalist China would probably try to get Indochina on side as much as possible. Perhaps Indochina would be the SE Asian version of Yugoslavia, with Ho Chi Minh (I'm not sure if he was Communist out of opportunism, though) in charge.
 
If Chiang defeats Mao in 1949 instead of Mao defeats Chiang, the timeline would be; China is a divided country, North China is ruled by communist led by Mao and the capital is Beijing while South China includes Taiwan and Tibet is ruled by Chiang and the capital is Nanjing.

In terms of economic development, South China is more developed than North China. By mid-1950s, I presuming an economic miracle to South China, the industrial take-off is the same to Japan with average of 12 percent from 1955 to 1973 and 1973 to the present, the economic growth is with average of 5% and by the end of 20th century South China is the largest economy of the world. In North China, I presuming an economic stagnation from 1950 to 1976 (after the death of Mao) and after 1976, I presuming an economic miracle to North China.
 
If Chiang defeats Mao in 1949 instead of Mao defeats Chiang, the timeline would be; China is a divided country, North China is ruled by communist led by Mao and the capital is Beijing while South China includes Taiwan and Tibet is ruled by Chiang and the capital is Nanjing.

In terms of economic development, South China is more developed than North China. By mid-1950s, I presuming an economic miracle to South China, the industrial take-off is the same to Japan with average of 12 percent from 1955 to 1973 and 1973 to the present, the economic growth is with average of 5% and by the end of 20th century South China is the largest economy of the world. In North China, I presuming an economic stagnation from 1950 to 1976 (after the death of Mao) and after 1976, I presuming an economic miracle to North China.

Would an economic miracle really happen in a large Nationalist Chinese State?
Certain factors required the development of the Asian economic tigers, most of which were closely linked to the pro-Western governments, liberal attitudes to business and land law reforms. Nationalist China would not have this, and I think it would end up more like Pakistan- unstable, often violent and generally poor.
(Not that a communist Manchuria would be much better).

The alternative is if there is a very real threat of an invasion of the USSR and or a Northern Chinese communist state. Pushing China towards the USA would certainly help in some ways, but not go all the way to developing the economy.
 
If Chiang defeats Mao in 1949 instead of Mao defeats Chiang, the timeline would be; China is a divided country, North China is ruled by communist led by Mao and the capital is Beijing while South China includes Taiwan and Tibet is ruled by Chiang and the capital is Nanjing.

In terms of economic development, South China is more developed than North China. By mid-1950s, I presuming an economic miracle to South China, the industrial take-off is the same to Japan with average of 12 percent from 1955 to 1973 and 1973 to the present, the economic growth is with average of 5% and by the end of 20th century South China is the largest economy of the world. In North China, I presuming an economic stagnation from 1950 to 1976 (after the death of Mao) and after 1976, I presuming an economic miracle to North China.


You really like bumping old threads, don't you?
 
It's interesting. And I' not sure that North China would stagnate. It's not like the People's Repulic stagnated, after all.

There's a real tendency to assume that Communist states are economic basketcases; and in many ways they are, but man, can they lift people's out of poverty by the bootstraps.
 
This would probably butterfly away the Korean War, though the USSR would be unlikely to give up its only ally in North-East Asia. The Kim regime would probably hang on until the collapse of the Soviet Union.
That depends more on how Pac War comes out. Does FDR press SU so hard to come in against Japan? Does MacArthur get his "return" & cause a stall in the advance on Japan for 5mo, plus 2-3mo clearing tougher Iwo/Oki due stranding reinforcments bound for P.I.? Or does FDR select a 1-road CPac strategy? Nimitz recognize the need to raise the priority on DDs & tankers, so immobilizing IJN, & Japan's economy, sooner?

Vietnam- CKS would be a vocal opponent of the French- pity the poor American diplomats having to placate both the French and the Chinese. Either Ho Chi Minh would modify his Marxism in exchange for Chinese support, or China might back another leader. Even if events turned out as in OTL with a divided Vietnam, Ho could not attempt to overthrow the South Vietnamese with a hostile China at his back.
Ho & the gang would bend over backwards to make a deal with France, rather than risk another 1000yr of Chinese occupation. If the OSS & Fr intel guys on the ground in '45 were halfway right, you might see Vietnam allied with the U.S., which Ho reportedly wanted, & only turned to SU after State blew him off.

BTW: bump.:eek::eek:
 
I expect China to eventually stablize and its government to reform. Once it does China's economy will boom starting in the 60s, living standards will be far higher in TTL.
 
I would see China making sure Communism would have no hold anywhere in Asia. Long term,I see the Nationalist Government falling appart..or allowing a new Dynasty to take over.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Incidentally, I'm reading this while in the People's Republic of China. The so-called "Great Firewall" is way overrated...
 
Vietnam- CKS would be a vocal opponent of the French- pity the poor American diplomats having to placate both the French and the Chinese. Either Ho Chi Minh would modify his Marxism in exchange for Chinese support, or China might back another leader. Even if events turned out as in OTL with a divided Vietnam, Ho could not attempt to overthrow the South Vietnamese with a hostile China at his back.

Actually Ho initially downplayed his Marxist leanings and presented himself as a nationalist leader. He was hoping the US would pressure France to withdraw and it's only when this didn't pan out that he went full-on Marxist to get Soviet support. In TTL, if he can appeal to big brother Chiang, Marxism may well be a much more peripheral part of Ho's rhetoric.
 
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