What if Serbia and Austria-Hungray where friends?

What if instead of being complete rivals Austria-Hungary and Serbia liked each other

How would ww1 be different if it happened
at all?

How German Austria-Hungary relations change?

Would Austria-Hungary be part of the triple entere or Serbia be one of the central powers?

Plz do say that this would never happen just think if it did happen
 
They were friends, up until about ten years before the war under Serbia's Obrenovic Dynasty. During that time, the Austrians went so far as to save Serbia's bacon in a war with Bulgaria that went horribly wrong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbo-Bulgarian_War. The problem is that the Obrenovics were really unpopular in Serbia, which led to the coup that overthrew them (led by the same people who assassinated Archduke Ferdinand, in fact). Actually, I think a different outcome to the Serbo-Bulgarian War is the place to start in terms of salvaging the Obrenovics' political situation; they were kind of on the back foot for the next twenty years.
 
They were friends, up until about ten years before the war under Serbia's Obrenovic Dynasty. During that time, the Austrians went so far as to save Serbia's bacon in a war with Bulgaria that went horribly wrong: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbo-Bulgarian_War. The problem is that the Obrenovics were really unpopular in Serbia, which led to the coup that overthrew them (led by the same people who assassinated Archduke Ferdinand, in fact). Actually, I think a different outcome to the Serbo-Bulgarian War is the place to start in terms of salvaging the Obrenovics' political situation; they were kind of on the back foot for the next twenty years.
Better not to start the war in the first place.
 
The Serbian government was Austrophile until 1900 (then ambivalent until early 1906; after that, relations were permeated by a very strong wave of mutual hostility).
The problem was that Vienna gave them no actual reason to be; no way to justify this pro-Austrian orientation to the public. It asked for much and gave little to nothing in return, in both political and economic matters. This masochistic relationship is what doomed the Obrenovic dynasty more than anything else.

To give the pro-Austrian clique in Serbia a long-term fighting chance, Vienna would have to change at least two of the following:
-agree to a partition of Bosnia with Serbia and Montenegro instead of seizing the whole territory;
-treat its Serbian subjects there well instead of keeping them in serfdom;
-support Serbia's expansion to the south instead of Ottoman rule;
-give Serbia some economic breathing room instead of aggressively pushing for the interests of Austrian industry and Hungarian agrarians, and making threats every time Belgrade so much as waves at some other country.

But OP did ask for more than the difficulties of how and why, so...

Hard to see Austria joining the Entente. More likely, Serbia joins the Central Powers, or remains a friendly neutral.

There are many ways to start WWI:
A Greco-Turkish War, in which the Central Powers reluctantly back the Ottoman Empire?
A Serbian-Bulgarian conflict similar to OTL's Second Balkan War, only Russia decides to support Bulgaria?
Someone - Franz Ferdinand, the King of Serbia, or maybe the Ottoman Sultan - is assassinated by someone with ties to Montenegro, Russia and Italy step in to defend the Montenegrins from a ridiculous ultimatum?
Maybe a living and unscathed Franz Ferdinand takes the throne, only to attack Italy and/or screw everything up and cause the Habsburg empire's disintegration.
...or something unrelated to the Balkans. Or something completely different from OTL's premises, depending on how far back the PoD goes.
 
Better not to start the war in the first place.

Better by far...but the war was a direct and natural product of Obrenovic's masochistic relationship with Austria-Hungary. The public had already lost nearly all respect for him due to all his kowtowing before Vienna and ignoring the Serbian population under the Habsburgs, so he felt like he needed to distract them with something - a lot of somethings, in fact, all building on each other. First a pointless coronation; Then repressive measures against the socialist and Russophile parliament majority, whose leaders emigrated to Bulgaria and made it an even more natural target for the Obrenovic regime's neurosis. And then finally the ridiculous war on Bulgaria which nobody wanted. All meant to prop up his pro-Austrian policies, all extremely counter-productive.
 

trurle

Banned
What if instead of being complete rivals Austria-Hungary and Serbia liked each other

How would ww1 be different if it happened
at all?

How German Austria-Hungary relations change?

Would Austria-Hungary be part of the triple entere or Serbia be one of the central powers?

Plz do say that this would never happen just think if it did happen

Given the political structure of Europe before WWI, the likelihood of Austro-Hungary friendly Serbia being with Central Powers is very small. No matter how favourable conditions offered by Vienna, rivals (Russian empire in particular) would offer even better conditions, just to avoid a formation of one more potential rival in critical region. Winning in such bidding require a lot of resources and internal stability, which Austro-Hungary lacked. Therefore, this ATL proposition will result in more prosperous Serbia still fighting the Austro-Hungary in WWI, albeit with may be some reluctance.
 
Letting Serbia have Bosnia would be good. Choice between Serbia and Austria-Hungary, Croatia would not choose Orthodox Serbia. Not blocking Serbia who wanted to annex Albania in 1913.
 
Adding onto what Halagaz has said, the Austrophilic government signed a secret convention, an alliance, with Austria-Hungary in 1881, which, among other things, made the country very subservient to Vienna, now being unable to make deals without their approval. A convention they signed right after signing a trading deal which made it so that Serbia could only export its commodities to Austria-Hungary. Both deals were signed before the Congress of Berlin too. It was obvious that Austria-Hungary was only striving to use Serbia as a means of getting into the geopolitics of the Balkans, as around the same time Russia had become Bulgaria's patron. They even resigned the secret convention in 1887 with one more condition added onto it, that is the condition that Vienna would protect the interests of the Obrenović dynasty, further linking the two together and giving the then-ruler Milan I the ability to deal with his political opponents.

Also, Halagaz mentioned that relations were ambivalent until early 1906 - this references the customs war the two had from 1906 to 1908, aptly named the Pig War after the commodity of importance. In an earlier thread regarding Alexander I not marrying Draga Mašin, we partially discussed relations with Austria too, so you could look there as well.

To ensure a longer-lasting friendship, we would need to see Austria-Hungary give some concessions to the Serbs in order to ensure the popularity of the country within Serbia proper, to give reason for why the kingdom is attaching itself to Vienna by the thigh, which could mean less economic and political control from their end. In a world where we've got that, Serbia would more than likely be a member of the Triple Alliance, that is the Central Powers.

When it comes to WW1, I'd personally believe that in such a scenario, war would break out because of something unrelated to the Balkans, especially if we consider what was discussed in the thread I linked. Out of the Balkan-related causes Halagaz suggested, the only one I could see as possible is that of the Montenegrin assassination one, since we could presume Montenegro becoming the hub for preaching the unity of Serbdom, something which wouldn't be as supported by the Austrophilic government since Austria holds South Slavic lands. Otherwise, the next European war won't begin over some damned foolish thing in the Balkans, but some damned foolish thing elsewhere on the mainland.
 
A Greco-Turkish War, in which the Central Powers reluctantly back the Ottoman Empire?

In 1897 this happened. The Russians joined the Austrians and the Germans. The Russians wanted the straits for themselves not the Greeks

A Serbian-Bulgarian conflict similar to OTL's Second Balkan War, only Russia decides to support Bulgaria?

Russia might back Bulgaria a bit but the Serbs would have to be taking so much of Bulgaria that even the Austrians were alarmed A strong Bulgaria might try to take Istanbul for itself
Someone - Franz Ferdinand, the King of Serbia, or maybe the Ottoman Sultan - is assassinated by someone with ties to Montenegro, Russia and Italy step in to defend the Montenegrins from a ridiculous ultimatum?

A bit too OTL and Montenegro isn't that important
Maybe a living and unscathed Franz Ferdinand takes the throne, only to attack Italy and/or screw everything up and cause the Habsburg empire's disintegration.
...or something unrelated to the Balkans. Or something completely different from OTL's premises, depending on how far back the PoD goes.

An Austro-Italian war is suicide. Nor can one see a colonial dispute erupting into war. Its rather hard to get a World War without a direct Attack by Austria or Russia on either Romania or Serbia
 

raharris1973

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An Austro-Italian war is suicide. Nor can one see a colonial dispute erupting into war. Its rather hard to get a World War without a direct Attack by Austria or Russia on either Romania or Serbia

AHC: WWI begins with a direct Austrian or Russian attack on Romania. How did we get there? What motivated the attacker?

To give the pro-Austrian clique in Serbia a long-term fighting chance, Vienna would have to change at least two of the following:
-agree to a partition of Bosnia with Serbia and Montenegro instead of seizing the whole territory;
-treat its Serbian subjects there well instead of keeping them in serfdom;
-support Serbia's expansion to the south instead of Ottoman rule;
-give Serbia some economic breathing room instead of aggressively pushing for the interests of Austrian industry and Hungarian agrarians, and making threats every time Belgrade so much as waves at some other country.


It seems to me that an end to serfdom in Bosnia (probably with compensation to landowners) and economic breathing room for Serbia would be the lowest cost two concessions Vienna could make. The lobby of Muslim landowners in Bosnia would be the only ones seriously opposed to ending serfdom, right? I'd think they would not have insurmountable clout.

What about a variation on this one:
-agree to a partition of Bosnia with Serbia and Montenegro instead of seizing the whole territory;

--how about in 1878, Austria occupies Bosnia, but it supports a Serbian-Montenegrin partition of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar?
 
AHC: WWI begins with a direct Austrian or Russian attack on Romania. How did we get there? What motivated the attacker?




It seems to me that an end to serfdom in Bosnia (probably with compensation to landowners) and economic breathing room for Serbia would be the lowest cost two concessions Vienna could make. The lobby of Muslim landowners in Bosnia would be the only ones seriously opposed to ending serfdom, right? I'd think they would not have insurmountable clout.

What about a variation on this one:
-agree to a partition of Bosnia with Serbia and Montenegro instead of seizing the whole territory;

--how about in 1878, Austria occupies Bosnia, but it supports a Serbian-Montenegrin partition of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar?

Honestly, with Austria and Serbia allies, its really hard to get to a World War. Russia can't attack Serbia so that's out. WHich leaves only Romania. Romania can quarrel with either and they'd be a big prize but why would either attack? A Romanian irrendentist movement like Serbia's? Possible but so close to the flukey OTL

Austria would never make internal concessions for external reasons. The result would be fatal as each of her neighbors would press claims for other groups

Nor s there any need for territorial concessions in Bosnia.

Just decent neighborly behavior avoiding the pig war and allowing modest Serbian expansion
 
In 1897 this happened. The Russians joined the Austrians and the Germans. The Russians wanted the straits for themselves not the Greeks

Maybe, but they can still support the Greeks on other issues. And it might be the Ottomans who attack Greece; neither Russia nor the Entente as a whole would like to see such an attack succeed.
Russia might back Bulgaria a bit but the Serbs would have to be taking so much of Bulgaria that even the Austrians were alarmed A strong Bulgaria might try to take Istanbul for itself

A bit too OTL and Montenegro isn't that important

Montenegro would get much more important, symbolically and strategically, if Serbia is some kind of CP friend and/or puppet.
An Austro-Italian war is suicide. Nor can one see a colonial dispute erupting into war. Its rather hard to get a World War without a direct Attack by Austria or Russia on either Romania or Serbia

Suicide? Probably, but just because it's stupid doesn't mean it can't happen - FF and his friends certainly dreamed of it.

But yes, an attack on Romania is an interesting option too.
 
AHC: WWI begins with a direct Austrian or Russian attack on Romania. How did we get there? What motivated the attacker?

Austria or Russia decides to intervene in the 1907 Romanian peasant revolt, to "restore order" and incidentally impose its tutelage onto the government. The other of the two powers objects and insists on immediate withdrawal, and the crisis spirals into a war between the alliance blocs?

This scenario gets more plausible and likely if the revolt is delayed a couple of years.
It seems to me that an end to serfdom in Bosnia (probably with compensation to landowners) and economic breathing room for Serbia would be the lowest cost two concessions Vienna could make. The lobby of Muslim landowners in Bosnia would be the only ones seriously opposed to ending serfdom, right? I'd think they would not have insurmountable clout.

What about a variation on this one:
-agree to a partition of Bosnia with Serbia and Montenegro instead of seizing the whole territory;

--how about in 1878, Austria occupies Bosnia, but it supports a Serbian-Montenegrin partition of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar?

The estate-owners in Bosnia were supported by Franz Ferdinand and his camarilla, as well as some bureaucratic and aristocratic circles. If the Austrian government decides to emancipate the peasants, presumably some of these people will fall in line; and some will lobby against and try to sabotage it.

That is a workable variation, too. OTOH it allows Serbia and Montenegro to connect without giving them a large incentive to like Austria, and without reducing the problems in Bosnia. It might be more useful for Austria to partition Bosnia with Serbia and Montenegro - in such a way that these two still don't border each other and Austria's part still borders the Ottoman Empire (with or without annexing Novi Pazar).
 
Yeah, who's going to miss a few Albanian villages..."

The Italians. But an Austro-Italian war would be suicide for Austria and the Kaiser is not going to be backing them. It will happen only if the Austrians buy off the Russians first. The straits would do the trick
 
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