Okay, it's been suggested about Tanzimat beginning 3-4 decades earlier under Selim III. Say, had Selim gathered loyal forces to crush Janissary rebellion in 1807 instead of hesitating, how much will change ? A lot is the short answer. Let's dissect the topic of how his reform and would have proceeded.
Compared to Mahmut II, he was not as strong a personality. But had he survived assassination he could've lived much longer. He died at 47 IOTL. So he could've ruled until like 1830s, for better or worse. In his quest for reform, we can assume Alemdar Pasha will have major role in it. Janissary institution will might survive this way, although severely reduced. Or maybe the loyal remnants will just form the backbone of the modern force, while escaping stigmatization it got IOTL.
Here are the points that I consider of immediate effects :
1) By this time Muhammad Ali was already in Egypt for 2 years. Will he be deterred by the success of reformists in capital from going his own way ? Or will he try it anyway and get crushed ?
2) How will the sectarian affairs play here vis a vis OTL ? The subjugation of conservative clergy and turns towards secularism are giveaways. Very related to question #1 because a lot of OTL Ottoman debt came from the wars against Muhammad Ali, and thus how Europeans started intruding into Ottoman affairs. Also, because the empire should be in much stronger position against later balkan rebellions, if the PoD won't prevent them entirely.
3) Related to #2, is about Ottoman relations with Europe. Personally, I'm optimistic this OE can avoid the OTL entanglement with capitulations. OTOH, I don't think she can escape it entirely either. The roots of capitulations originated way back from the days they were still over-confident most gracious. But perhaps, they could've ended up with less debt and perhaps confine protectorate rights over Christians to a few or even just one most favored nation of sort, most likely either France or Britain. Also Napoleonic war was still on going as well as war with Russia. I don't think the latter will unfold much differently though. However, the next war in late 1820 can be easily prevented. That can remove Russia as one of the biggest screwers of the empire, though it will still remain a security threat.
4) How will this affect the empire's surroundings, especially that of muslim countries such as Persia and Barbary States ? We can safely assume Tunis will be re-annexed to the empire. But what about Algiers ? As for Persia, Ottoman will provide a natural model for them but a) how long until they will realize it's a necessity and b) how much of their internal condition was for and against the reform by then ?
Compared to Mahmut II, he was not as strong a personality. But had he survived assassination he could've lived much longer. He died at 47 IOTL. So he could've ruled until like 1830s, for better or worse. In his quest for reform, we can assume Alemdar Pasha will have major role in it. Janissary institution will might survive this way, although severely reduced. Or maybe the loyal remnants will just form the backbone of the modern force, while escaping stigmatization it got IOTL.
Here are the points that I consider of immediate effects :
1) By this time Muhammad Ali was already in Egypt for 2 years. Will he be deterred by the success of reformists in capital from going his own way ? Or will he try it anyway and get crushed ?
2) How will the sectarian affairs play here vis a vis OTL ? The subjugation of conservative clergy and turns towards secularism are giveaways. Very related to question #1 because a lot of OTL Ottoman debt came from the wars against Muhammad Ali, and thus how Europeans started intruding into Ottoman affairs. Also, because the empire should be in much stronger position against later balkan rebellions, if the PoD won't prevent them entirely.
3) Related to #2, is about Ottoman relations with Europe. Personally, I'm optimistic this OE can avoid the OTL entanglement with capitulations. OTOH, I don't think she can escape it entirely either. The roots of capitulations originated way back from the days they were still over-confident most gracious. But perhaps, they could've ended up with less debt and perhaps confine protectorate rights over Christians to a few or even just one most favored nation of sort, most likely either France or Britain. Also Napoleonic war was still on going as well as war with Russia. I don't think the latter will unfold much differently though. However, the next war in late 1820 can be easily prevented. That can remove Russia as one of the biggest screwers of the empire, though it will still remain a security threat.
4) How will this affect the empire's surroundings, especially that of muslim countries such as Persia and Barbary States ? We can safely assume Tunis will be re-annexed to the empire. But what about Algiers ? As for Persia, Ottoman will provide a natural model for them but a) how long until they will realize it's a necessity and b) how much of their internal condition was for and against the reform by then ?