Possibly ASB, but I think would be interesting to explore the effects of an ATL Versailles, Trianon, Sevres, that actually respects the principle of National Self Determination through the use of plebiscites and ethnolinguistic data in drawing the new borders of Europe. Would this lead to a more peaceful or more violent Europe?
What if "Self-Determination" is actually taken seriously at Versailles?
- Thread starter splashface256
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Czechoslovakia is crushed well before it was in OTL, being surrounded on three sides by the unified German state of Germany, German-Austria, and the Sudetenland.
The theoretical implementation of the principle of self-determination for all peoples will mean the practical end of independence for peoples put in a bad strategic position by that implementation--as indeed happened a few months after Munich in OTL.
The theoretical implementation of the principle of self-determination for all peoples will mean the practical end of independence for peoples put in a bad strategic position by that implementation--as indeed happened a few months after Munich in OTL.
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There's also the question of what you do with ethnic "islands." There were some Hungarian-speaking areas in Romania separated from the Magyar heartland by a good deal of Romanian-speaking territory. There were cities where Poles outnumbered Ukrainians --but which were surrounded by Ukrainian-speaking countryside. (And to make things more complicated, some of the cities in the Polish-Ukrainian or Polish-Belarusian or Polish-Lithuanian borderlands were more Jewish than Polish, Ukrainian, Lithuanian, or Belarusian.)
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This presupposes the rationale for unifying all the german peoples still exists. Not to say this would obviate World War 2, but you could be looking at an entirely different kind of World War 2.
Why would that rationale not exist? A general application of self-determination clearly implies it.
If all the German peoples are unified in one state already, you can't exactly jackboot around Europe with the intention of unifying all the German peoples into one state. Not to say there might not be an interest in Germany in attacking Czechoslovakia anyway, but you could see an entirely different kind of relationship dynamic there.
The Scots get their own land, as do the Basque and Corsicans. Belgium gets split in two...
If you go the full way, you're basically back to a Holy Roman Empire like patchwork of tiny states
Deleted member 94680
This thread highlights, in a few succinct posts, why the whole "Self Determination" declaration by Wilson was such a stupid idea.
- There's no real way to implement it practically.
- It makes the WAllies look like hypocrites when it isn't applied to them, or their territories.
- It generates enmity in regards to contested territory where the only (supposedly) defining condition for control is the ethnicity of the population
- On a map of Europe it creates micro-states that are in no way viable entities.
longsword14
Banned
Why blame the old, racist idiot when his high minded ideas were simply ignored for convenience ?
Skallagrim
Banned
A lot of people here seem to be bent on ignoring that a lot of trouble in OTL arose because the idea was implemented poorly, not because it was implemented in the first place. There are some areas where you will see trouble, particularly the Hungarian exclave in Romania and in (what was in OTL) Yugoslavia, because it's hard to get those areas "right" (but they were very problematic long before Wilson's plan). As much as I detest Wilson, there is a very dumb tendency to dismiss his ideas as being the product of this "old racist", with the implication that his racism means he cannot possibly ever have had a single valid idea. That's logically incoherent.
The truth is that if you'd altered the Hungarian borders to include the clear Hungarian-majority areas around OTL Hungary, there would be far, far less revanchism. Why? Because the no-longer-Hungarian regions would all be evidently not Hungarian. The whole myth that "Hungary was carved up" thrived on the fact that there were indeed an awaful lot of Hungarians outside Hungary afterwards. If that's not the case, both the validity and the support for irridentism woul be vastly reduced. (The exclave could theoretically be a separate Hungarian country, which should be allowed to unify with Hungary via a pleibiscite if it wishes. Free civilian travel between the two Hungarian states should be guaranteed by treaty.)
Likewise, Germany: if we go by ethnic majority, Poland doesn't get the coastline, and all of Germany stays contiguous. The whole excuse for war with Poland is gone. There are no "germans under the Polish yoke!!!", since Poland contains no (or very, very few) Germans. Same goes for Czechoslovakia. There won't be a Czechoslovakia. Those will be two countries. And while the Czech state will be small, since the Sudetenland goes to a united Germany (also including Austria), there will be no real reason for Germany to want to invade Czechia. All the irridentist anger that so fuelled Hitler will be totally gone in this ATL. If the idea is really applied, Germany even gains South Tyrol and gets to keep over half of Elsaß-Lothringen! What "wrongs" will Hitler have to "right" via brutal force, then? For a lot of Germans, there would be far less reason to ever vote for him.
And sure, the whole primise is hypocritical since the winners of the war surely do not intend to apply it to themselves (or to their colonies), but has "this is hypocritical" ever been a reason not to do a thing, in all of history? The self-determination of peoples was not a stupid idea, it was one of the best ideas in political history, it remains morally sound, and if it had been applied more honestly, it would have been a great step towards preventing World War II and all Nazi atrocities.
The truth is that if you'd altered the Hungarian borders to include the clear Hungarian-majority areas around OTL Hungary, there would be far, far less revanchism. Why? Because the no-longer-Hungarian regions would all be evidently not Hungarian. The whole myth that "Hungary was carved up" thrived on the fact that there were indeed an awaful lot of Hungarians outside Hungary afterwards. If that's not the case, both the validity and the support for irridentism woul be vastly reduced. (The exclave could theoretically be a separate Hungarian country, which should be allowed to unify with Hungary via a pleibiscite if it wishes. Free civilian travel between the two Hungarian states should be guaranteed by treaty.)
Likewise, Germany: if we go by ethnic majority, Poland doesn't get the coastline, and all of Germany stays contiguous. The whole excuse for war with Poland is gone. There are no "germans under the Polish yoke!!!", since Poland contains no (or very, very few) Germans. Same goes for Czechoslovakia. There won't be a Czechoslovakia. Those will be two countries. And while the Czech state will be small, since the Sudetenland goes to a united Germany (also including Austria), there will be no real reason for Germany to want to invade Czechia. All the irridentist anger that so fuelled Hitler will be totally gone in this ATL. If the idea is really applied, Germany even gains South Tyrol and gets to keep over half of Elsaß-Lothringen! What "wrongs" will Hitler have to "right" via brutal force, then? For a lot of Germans, there would be far less reason to ever vote for him.
And sure, the whole primise is hypocritical since the winners of the war surely do not intend to apply it to themselves (or to their colonies), but has "this is hypocritical" ever been a reason not to do a thing, in all of history? The self-determination of peoples was not a stupid idea, it was one of the best ideas in political history, it remains morally sound, and if it had been applied more honestly, it would have been a great step towards preventing World War II and all Nazi atrocities.
A better Versailles (and Trianon/Sévres/St Germain) is definitely possible - both in overall fairness and ethnic balance.
However:
1 - this runs contrary to most stated ambitions, by everybody in Europe (basically, every non-Scandinavian Nation had their version of the Megali Idea)
2 - it often overlooks basic military necessities (for example in South Tyrol, Istria, and the Sudeten)
3 - as others stated, there are many cultural islands and exclaves making this a true nightmare to do unless really massive population exchanges.
However:
1 - this runs contrary to most stated ambitions, by everybody in Europe (basically, every non-Scandinavian Nation had their version of the Megali Idea)
2 - it often overlooks basic military necessities (for example in South Tyrol, Istria, and the Sudeten)
3 - as others stated, there are many cultural islands and exclaves making this a true nightmare to do unless really massive population exchanges.
How though will these changed borders impact the Reds? Weaker Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia/Serbia, or Romania might be less able or willing to overthrow Bela Kun. Weaker Poland or Romania cant do as much against the RSFSR. Perhaps there is no miracle on the Vistula and Poland becomes part of the USSR. Regardless all forms of nationalism are more likely to be seen as tools of capitalism, possibly butterflying the role of Commissar of Nationalities and thus the rise of Stalin...
Not really. Do you see the US pressing the Europeans to letting their Blacks (in the Caribbean, Africa, India, the Paficic, etc) vote? Besides, stuff with self determination was mostly on the areas lost by the Germans, Austrians, Hungarians, Bulgarians, Ottomans, and Russians. And unless you actually have the Entente going around invading places in Europe, they aren't going to be able to do too much, considering the Poles got their land my themselves, as did the Romanians and others. Kinda sorta. The French did seem to move out of occupied areas quickly enough when the Lithuanians moved into Memel. Still, there is also the issue of voter suppression, like may have happened with the Prussians for all of the land there that was voting on whether to be with Germany or Poland, with the population giving an almost ridiculously high Prussian vote.
Nope. In the part of Pomerania given to Poland, Germans were majority in like two counties.
Skallagrim
Banned
County maps can be very deceptive, same way electoral maps can be deceptive. When you look at a map like this, the whole area looks almost exlusively Polish. Nothing could be further from the truth.
There was a strip in the far north where you get a contiguous area of German majority. South of there you get an area dominated by Poles, and south of that, another thin strip dominated by Germans (but not quite contiguous). A tricky situation, but nothing you can't solve. Giving the whole area to Poland is, in any event, a bad move and bound to (rightfully) piss off the Germans. Best to compromise, organise some minor population exchanges (with compensation etc.) and ensure that Poland gets contiguously attached to the clearly Polish-majority bit in the centre, while germany gets to preserve its continuity via a thin northern strip.
Poland will no doubt shriek about not having access to the coast, but that can be ignored. This solution affords both countries territorial contiguity, which no other solution could do.
There is no way to draw "fair" ethnic borders in Central/Eastern Europe after ww1. There were predominately German towns surronded by Polish countryside, or Polish towns surronded by Ukrainian/Belarusian countryside, enclaves and other stuff. Or places like Vilnius/Wilno (Poles want it for ethnic reasons, Lithuanians for historical reasons). In theory the best solution to minimalize conflict would be to piss off weaker side (they'll be angry enough for revenge but simply not strong enough).
Kaze
Banned
On the contrary if you give say the Vietnamese in French Vietnam the right to vote, they will immediately vote for independence. I would say in a few years under "self-determination", you would see Ho Chi Minh as president of Vietnam.
It would be the same for the other colonies in Africa, India, and the rest of Asia - they would not wish to vote for their leaders far away, they would want to have their own nation. Or in the case of the multiple Chinese colonies held by western powers, return to the fold.
It would be the same for the other colonies in Africa, India, and the rest of Asia - they would not wish to vote for their leaders far away, they would want to have their own nation. Or in the case of the multiple Chinese colonies held by western powers, return to the fold.