What if Saddam wasn't captured in 2003?

During Red Dawn, the operation to capture Saddam Hussein, the soldiers were just about to leave, when one soldier kicked a bit of flooring and found a hole where Saddam was hiding. What effect would the US not capturing Saddam have on the insurgency in Iraq? Would Baathists continue to dominate insurgent groups instead of islamists?
 
Seems likely. It's possible Saddam, if still alive in mid 2014, would've been been directing the sunni counterattack, instead of ISIS. For all his foreign policy goofs, Saddam was at least not as amateurish politically as ISIS.
 
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