Someone asks this question at a rate of once or twice a year. Its rather cyclical in nature, and so a quick search will always turn up stuff.
The arguments are also usualy cyclical.
Could it become Japanese? (not really - monroe, size, etc)
Could it become Communist (no - the allies were willing to intervene in OTL Russia civil war, and Canada actualy sent troops to russia, you can be sure they will not let that happen to Alaska)
Would it eventualy become American? (Alot of Americans hold to it being an inevitability, but it is an option)
Would it eventualy become Canadian? (I personally hold that thats the most plausible route short of it staying Imperial Russian, since Canada has always coveted the territory historically)
Would it become independent? (Again plausible, and depends on the arguer)
In an earlier thread (
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=103310&highlight=Alaska ) I proposed that Alaska would become a Canadian protectorate, with the Czars installed (being evacuated by the British through Archangel or St. Petersburg) as rulers of Alaska.
The entire scenario ran something like this.
Russia never sells the area to the Americans, and though they hold on to it nervously for a while, the eventual warming of relations because of Germany cools their jets.
The Japanese never get anything in the Russo-Japanese War because of American, and others, objections. The area also isn't worth that much.
When the Russia civil war occurs, the Royal Familly is evacuated from Russia, and while they initialy rest in the comfort of London, the establishment of the protectorate in Alaska (and maybe some eastern Russia) forces them there.
Nicholas II spends the rest of his life calling for war against the Soviets to reinstall himself, or his familly.
Alaska, though initialy a protectorate of Britain, soon becomes a Canadian protectorate with the Statutes of Westminister.
World War II, and the Japanese scare, forces Canada and Alaska closer together, and they form a quasi-political-economic union.
Throughout the the cold war, Canada and Alaska become even closer together, with Alaska maintaining the semblance of independence.
As the cold war develops, and Nicholas II dies, and then his succesor dies, a more realist Romanov begins to set his (or her) sights on a throne closer to home. That throne of course being Canada's. The Romanov in question then starts a public campaign to try and get his familly installed on the throne.
Though Alaska in this scenario would try and maintain being Russian, in this scenario, both due to its proximity to Canada and America, but also due to the eventual openess causing an influx of english speakers once a resource boom happens, Alaska will probably speak english, and the Romanovs along with it. In the event of trying to get Canada, they'd probaly polish up their French too.
Odd effects not mentioned.
The OTL Alaska border dispute went bad for Canada because Britain backstabbed Canada's claim to appease America (Britain was having a dispute with the states about a border with Venuzuela), so the Alaska panhandle would probably be smaller in this scenario with the Yukon actualy having a port.
The protectorate, although officialy British, would be Canada basically from the get go.
Quote:
- Turks and Caicos Islands - A British overseas territory in the Caribbean. There is some support for it to join Canada, and in 2004 Nova Scotia voted to invite Turks and Caicos to join that province, in the event of the islands becoming Canadian. However, the islands' small economy and Canada's involvement in Haiti has made this controversial.
- Jamaica - In the late 19th century, there was some discussion of some form of political union between Canada and Jamaica.
- Barbados - In 1884, the Barbados Agricultural Society sent a letter to Sir Francis Hincks requesting his private and public views on whether the Dominion of Canada would favourably entertain having the then colony of Barbados admitted as a member of the Canadian Confederation. Asked of Canada were the terms of the Canadian side to initiate discussions, and whether or not the island of Barbados could depend on the full influence of Canada in getting the change agreed to by Britain. Then in 1952 the Barbados Advocate newspaper polled several prominent Barbadian politicians, lawyers, businessmen, the Speaker of the Barbados House of Assembly and later as first President of the Senate, Sir Theodore Branker, Q.C. and found them to be in favour of immediate federation of Barbados along with the rest of the British Caribbean with complete Dominion Status within five years from the date of inauguration of the West Indies Federation with Canada.
- Bermuda - In 1949 Henry Vassey, then Chairman of the Bermuda Trade Development Board, urged the House of Assembly of Bermuda to pursue a political union with Canada. Four Methodist church congregations in Bermuda are part of The United Church of Canada, forming Bermuda Presbytery of the United Church's Maritime Conference headquartered in Sackville, New Brunswick.
- The West Indies Federation – In a 1952 letter by T.G. Major, a Canadian Trade Commissioner in Trinidad and Tobago, it was stated to the Under Secretary of State for External Affairs that the respective leaders of the British Caribbean could not reach a clear consensus for the exact style of a federal union with Canada. During a parliamentary conference held in Ottawa, it was also noted though that the colony of British Honduras (present day Belize) showed the most interest in a union with Canada exceeding that of the other British Caribbean colonies.
Canadian Prime Minister
Robert Borden and his delegation to the
Paris Peace Conference of 1919 put pressure on British Prime Minister
David Lloyd George to give most of the above territories to Canada as sub-dominions or
League of Nations mandates, citing the concessions made to
Billy Hughes'
Australian delegation with regard to
New Guinea and
Nauru. Lloyd George eventually declined
[5].
So, perhaps in this scenario, with Canada being allowed to assert itself far more, Canada also gets Britain carribean possesions...
Well those are my two cents.