Prior to July 1914, I don't think German military planning (or lack thereof) had a significant impact on German diplomacy (or lack thereof). Faced with an Anglo-Russian conflict, the German immediate reaction would likely be to reach for the pop corn and get comfy for the show. Obviously, French diplomacy would already be in tatters.
The French are in a bind, that’s for sure. As for the German reaction, who knows? Sitting back and watching is one option, true. But there will be voices calling for the government to take the opportunity to deal with the “eastern menace” whilst it is distracted...
The Germans would need to be a bunch of nincompoops not to benefit greatly from this scenario...
Like they took advantage of the Fashoda Incident? Like they managed to manipulate the Moroccan Crisis to their advantage? German foreign policy post-Bismarck was a train-wreck and we all know it. Don’t bet on Berlin to do the ‘smart thing’ in any international crisis with Billy in charge...
I have always found the purported rationale for the build up of the Russian Black Sea fleet fleet to seize the Straights and the threats relating thereto to be rather curious. Does anyone have the imagination to expect a remotely positive outcome from large scale Russian amphibious operations in that period? Am I missing something?
Not at all, the likelihood of a successful outcome is vanishingly small given
Stavka’s, shall we say, ‘difficulties’ when it comes to higher level operations and co-operation with Allied Powers, but the intent was there.
As the OTL history of WWI should plainly indicate, many of the Powers had plans that bore little resemblance to reality.