What if Russia supported the Ezo Republic?

Let's say that in 1869, as the Boshin War is beginning to end, Russia decides that a divided Japan is less dangerous and they want to make an ally. So they send some troops and ships (if they're east of Siberia, that is) to the Ezo Republic in Hokkaido to protect them from the Imperial forces that have just taken over the rest of the islands. What then?
 
The rest of the Powers start scrambling for position, I imagine. Whether that be based on peaceful trade with an intact state or.... otherwise.
 
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