What if Russia established a protectorate over Korea in the 1860s, 70s, 80s or 90s?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Could Russia have plausibly set up a protectorate in Korea during the 19th century, or at least gotten to lease a naval base or two on the Korean coast (Busan & Wonsan perhaps)?

In what times and circumstances would it be most plausible? How could it be accomplished by Russia?

Would a Russian base in Korea make Port Arthur much less relevant strategically?
 
Could Russia have plausibly set up a protectorate in Korea during the 19th century, or at least gotten to lease a naval base or two on the Korean coast (Busan & Wonsan perhaps)?

In what times and circumstances would it be most plausible? How could it be accomplished by Russia?

Would a Russian base in Korea make Port Arthur much less relevant strategically?

I think it's plausible before the Sino-Japanese War that Korea starts to look for alternate counter weight to Japan. A base in Korea would mean Russia no longer needs to lease the one in Dalian. The Korean base could still be called Port Arthur. This move would anger both Japan and China and it may lead to collaboration against Russia. How long that lasts is hard to say.
 
I think it would seriously anger China, since Korea was still at least in name, Chinese vassal.
And China always have a big brother mentality toward their vassal, I doubt they will not make a huge fuss about it.
 

raharris1973

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The Korean base could still be called Port Arthur. This move would anger both Japan and China and it may lead to collaboration against Russia. How long that lasts is hard to say.

And the practical results of a common angry front would be hard to say too.

I think it would seriously anger China, since Korea was still at least in name, Chinese vassal.
And China always have a big brother mentality toward their vassal, I doubt they will not make a huge fuss about it.

When could China afford to make a big deal about it? They faced major revolts in the 1860s and 1870s. They also didn't counter the moves of Japanese upstarts to force Korea open in the 1870s, and the Qing had much more respect for their bigger Russian neighbors. China gets to recover from rebellions by the 1880s, but in 1884-85 its fighting France in the south and after that war has an even clearer picture of its own weakness.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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I think it's plausible before the Sino-Japanese War that Korea starts to look for alternate counter weight to Japan. A base in Korea would mean Russia no longer needs to lease the one in Dalian. The Korean base could still be called Port Arthur. This move would anger both Japan and China and it may lead to collaboration against Russia. How long that lasts is hard to say.

Thinking on this, I think that yes, if the Russians try to move into Korea before the Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese will be angry at them. If the Russians try *after* the Sino-Japanese (as they did) but somewhat more quickly, aggressively and effectively than OTL, China will actually like it, seeing it as offering a Russian shield against Japan.

Since the Chinese contested Russian probes and got them to back off in Turkestan during the Ili crisis (1877-1881), I think they would contest, perhaps successfully, Russian assertions in Korea up to that time. However, China is probably powerless to contest any Russian moves once it is at war with France in the 1880s.
 
Thinking on this, I think that yes, if the Russians try to move into Korea before the Sino-Japanese War, the Chinese will be angry at them. If the Russians try *after* the Sino-Japanese (as they did) but somewhat more quickly, aggressively and effectively than OTL, China will actually like it, seeing it as offering a Russian shield against Japan.

Since the Chinese contested Russian probes and got them to back off in Turkestan during the Ili crisis (1877-1881), I think they would contest, perhaps successfully, Russian assertions in Korea up to that time. However, China is probably powerless to contest any Russian moves once it is at war with France in the 1880s.

Russia had a lot of problems in the 1880s starting with the social conditions leading to Alexander II's assassination. His successor Alex III had a very timid foreign policy having to deal with both these internal problems and threats from Germany and the Great Game with Britain. So I'm not sure Russia had the inclination to expand in Korea in the 1880s. China did okay against the French on land and The Russo-Turkish War had reduced enthusiasm for foreign wars. The 1890s I think would be more likely.
 
Well, Queen Min of the late Joseon (1890s) was pushing for modernization and ties with Russia after Japan humiliated the Qing in the Sino-Japanese War. And part of the reason the Russo-Japanese War broke out was due to the whole 'yellow peril' craze and German prodding (Wilhelm II wanted Russia to expand into Asia hoping that such expansion would alienate France and push Russia into a German alliance). In any case, the Joseon weren't staying independent at this point, Japan had been planning to take over for decades.

Well, say Alexander III dies somewhat earlier and Nicholas II and Wilhelm II get a bit cozier than OTL for various reasons. The Sino-Japanese War breaks out earlier, Queen Min is attacked but not killed (her death OTL caused quite some outrage with Japan in Korea), and King Gojong flees to the Russians as he does OTL. Out of concern of Joseon independence, Russia is granted greater influence in the Korean peninsula. With the greater economic benefits from the Far East, with both Manchuria and Korea in Russian influence, the Trans-Siberian Railroad goes a bit faster (or just have it get started earlier). Insert Boxer Rebellion equivalent due to something or another (late Qing having rebellions, easy enough to butterfly in). When the Russo-Japanese War breaks out, have Russia not be quite as incompetent (for example, no Dogger Bank incident) and the finished railroad lets them supply faster and not lose outright. Dealt a heavy enough blow to begin reforming but not lose all face, ships, etc. Also realize the utility of having Korea (a dagger pointed right at Japan's heart, as it were). With Japanese and Chinese influences curtailed, the Joseon court is now solidly Russophilic. Realizing that Japan was strong enough to challenge a European Great Power and would likely return to conquer Korea again, the Joseon, now Korean Empire, begins modernizing more energetically and embraces Russian influence and military as a means to maintain its independence, ultimately becoming a protectorate of sorts. Still wary of the British and aware of the logistical issues of absorbing over 10 million new foreign subjects on the other side of the world, Russia does not annex Korea but instead extends the Trans-Siberian railroad into Korea as far as Busan, which strengthens economic and military ties, and contributes to its modernization in an effort to create a buffer between it and Japan. Busan sees rapid development into a modern port in an effort to strengthen Russian naval power in the East as it stands closer to established Russian ports than Port Arthur (cuts down on fuel costs a bit) while giving an excellent position to threaten Japan from.

Overall, the developments cause Westminster quite some consternation as they hadn't expected Japan to win but had not expected Korea to embrace Russia so whole heartedly. Germany and Russia get along a bit better as Nicholas sees the endeavor as a success.

Or something like that. It'll be hard for Russia to take over Korea completely, due to Britain, France, and Japan desiring otherwise, but it's in their interest to prop Korea up as a bulwark against the Japanese. Plus, new markets, more resources, more prestige, etc. Late 1890s maybe?
 
I think a Russian-influenced Korea would have to be in the 1890s, since China during the late 1800s (starting in the Tongzhi Restoration in 1862) actually embarked on pretty significant military reforms. It built numerous arsenals, shipyards, and factories. Though it started to lose momentum starting in the late 1880s (when the reactionary court under Cixi started growing in power), it still allowed China to repel the Russians in the Ili Crisis and manage a land victory against the French in the Sino–French War (I'd argue that it would've been a victory if the Japanese didn't threaten to go to war following intervention in the Gapsin Coup). It wasn't until Qing defeat in the First Sino–Japanese War when the reforms lost support, though I'd attribute the loss to government incompetence and superior Japanese tactics, training and morale, since the Qing was better-equipped both on-land and on-sea.

Even then, it'd be kinda hard to make a Russian-influenced Korea, even if you keep Queen Min alive and the conservative faction more organized under a central figurehead. The Korean court has always been rather factionalized (by the 1800s of course, it developed into more of a weak dichotomy), and King Gojong wasn't much of a charismatic figure anyways. Also many reformist intellectuals were more pro-Japanese than anything (in fact, one of the major reasons for the First Sino-Japanese War was the assassination of Kim Ok-gyun, a reformist which lead the Gapsin Coup in 1884). As said before, the British would oppose it, since it backed up the Meiji Restoration and invested in Japanese development because it wanted a bulwark against Russian imperialism in Northeast Asia (the only region it really lacks any substantial projection). Russian influence would also undoubtably produce a really mad response among Japanese intellectuals and aristocrats, the majority of whom saw Koreans as a subordinate subculture/subgroup of Japanese, hence they were adamant on genociding them and instead focused on assimilating them en-masse during the 30s (though until then, they actually promoted Korean culture).
 
Could Russia have plausibly set up a protectorate in Korea during the 19th century, or at least gotten to lease a naval base or two on the Korean coast (Busan & Wonsan perhaps)?

In what times and circumstances would it be most plausible? How could it be accomplished by Russia?

Would a Russian base in Korea make Port Arthur much less relevant strategically?
Could Korea become Russified with a kyrellic script ?
 
Could Korea become Russified with a kyrellic script ?

IIRC, ethnic Koreans living in the former USSR use Cyrillic to transcribe Korean. TBF, it would make sense to replace the complicated Hanja script with something simple (the only problem is writing phonemes between the schwa, tense plosives, etc.)
 
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