what if Roosevelt won 1912

We all know the story. Roosevelt was pissedat Taft. Ran progressive party, split Republican vote, and ultimately lead to the u.s delayed entry of world war i with the election of Wilson. But what if either he got Republican nomination or Taft had been assassinated mid election or William Jennings Bryant ran on Democratic ticket? what happens when Roosevelt is reelected? Is he a 4 termer due to starting the war early? Does he start the war early at all? What happens to America at home? And what's the long term effect?
 
If Teddy gets the Republican nomination, he wins the Presidency.

But from there, things get interesting. Without Roosevelt running third party, Wilson (or Champ Clark, who is probably more likely to get the Democratic nomination ITTL) gets smacked down, and the Democrats now haven't held the White House in twenty years. That means a circular firing squad within the Democratic Party. If Champ gets the nomination in '12, Wilson gets it in '16 by going after the mainstream party organization for not being 'progressive' enough.

I don't think Roosevelt gets the United States into the war in 1914. Public support just *isn't* there. He might be able to swing it in 1915, though. If the United States enters in 1915, Teddy beats Wilson (who isn't exactly running as an opponent of the war ITTL) and a weaker left-wing challenge from the Socialists, who are really still the only party opposed to waging the war.

By 1918, the war is over or ending, and the Democrats take back control of Congress. The Socialists likely face the same wartime repression they faced under Wilson (don't think for a minute that Roosevelt wouldn't have done the same) and are effectively defeated, for the time being. Roosevelt wins the Republican nomination again in 1920, ditching his running mate Hiram Johnson for Senator Warren Harding of Ohio.

The Democrats, who renominate Wilson, run against Roosevelt's war policies and basically project a 'Had Enough?' style campaign against the Republicans. Wilson has a pretty easy time portraying Roosevelt as a would-be-king in seeking his fifth term in office, and defeats him pretty spectacularly. The Democrats return to power for the first time since 1892.

Wilson thus presides over a depression in the early 1920s, a wave of strikes, and a lot of unpleasantness. He dies from a stroke in 1923, allowing Vice President James Cox to take over. Cox takes office as the economy is rebounding, and faces off against Republican Harding and Socialist Eugene Debs in November, winning a pretty strong mandate for another term.

Cox declines to seek a second term in 1928 and is succeeded by Franklin Roosevelt, his Vice President and the former Senator from New York. Roosevelt defeats Republican Calvin Coolidge pretty handily. Of course, a stock market crash mires the Roosevelt administration in a Depression that leads to Roosevelt losing the White House in 1932 to a certain Herbert Hoover...
 
He would probably have had 4 terms but not consecutive with two before and two after 1912.The differences may have started with the Ludlow massacre with Roosevelt sending in Federal troops earlier and leaning on the mine owners to settle.

Initially Roosevelt would have attempted mediation in the First World War but if as likely it failed then he would have supported intervention probably after the Lusitania however the Baralong incident may have made it more difficult and it is possible that Roosevelt may have frightened the Germans into abandoning unrestricted submarine warfare thus removing the excuse to get involved. He may have iunstigated neutrality patrols like his nephew in the hopes of provking U-boats into attacking American warships. He would have had difficulty persuading congress. However he would probably have entered the war earlier maybe in January 1917 when Germany reintroduced unrestricted submarine warfare or would they have been worried about provoking Roosevelt and not have been as opbliging?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If my memory is right, TR was part of the bandwagon calling for a declaration of war on Germany after the sinking of the Lusitania.

He was one of the loudest voices right after the Lusitania. So if TR election does not butterfly WW1, USW or the Lusitania, then TR ask for a declaration of war about June 1915. Now with a democratic congress, it is not a given that it passes.

I think it more likely TR has major butterflies on how WW1 unfolds. He wanted a stronger army, seems like even before the war. So say TR gets the "Much better Navy and Less of Joke Army" bill passes in 1913, then the way the powers interact with the USA is a lot different. Even if he does not get this through,he will be pushing for a larger Army in late 1914 or early 1915. Something that is small by European standards such as going for 250K active, 500K national guard would change both the UK and German actions. He likely also has different actions in Mexico. Not sure if better or worse, but different.

Part of the reason that Wilson diplomatic initiatives were ignored is that he had such of a joke army. The mere ability to have a half million men conduct exercise to practice either invading Canada or sending troops overseas has a large impact on how we are treated. So would being able to handle a minor Mexico issue without calling up the reserves.
 
If Teddy gets the Republican nomination, he wins the Presidency.


Not necessarily.

Look at California, where Taft was not on the ballot. In 1908 it had gone Republican by a two to one majority, yet in 1912 TR edged out Wilson by less than 180 votes - of 600,000 cast. That's a massive swing, which if repeated in other states (and there's no reason to suppose it wouldn't be) would produce a Democratic victory even in a straight fight with TR.

All too clearly, resentful Taftites either went fishing on election day or voted Democratic. Presumably they would have done the same even had TR managed to snatch the Party nomination. At best, TR faces an uphill fight in the geenral election, and it's far from clear that he'll win at all.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Wasn't that ship actually carrying the munitions that Germany claimed?

Three million rounds of rifle ammunition, which by some sources don't count as arms. But that is not the good technical German justification. It is listed as an auxillary warship on prewar registers. Being listed as a reserve warship makes you a legal target regardless of any other consideration. But the Lusitania was really more PR than legality.

It was sheer stupidity on the German part.
 
It was sheer stupidity on the German part.

Perhaps. But I do remember the German Embassy taking out some ads in newspapers declaring that there would be unrestricted warfare on the high seas. When a country makes that sort of annoucement, you have to take it seriously. Do any countries actually do that sort of thing anymore?
 
He was one of the loudest voices right after the Lusitania. So if TR election does not butterfly WW1, USW or the Lusitania, then TR ask for a declaration of war about June 1915. Now with a democratic congress, it is not a given that it passes.

I think it more likely TR has major butterflies on how WW1 unfolds. He wanted a stronger army, seems like even before the war. So say TR gets the "Much better Navy and Less of Joke Army" bill passes in 1913, then the way the powers interact with the USA is a lot different. Even if he does not get this through,he will be pushing for a larger Army in late 1914 or early 1915. Something that is small by European standards such as going for 250K active, 500K national guard would change both the UK and German actions. He likely also has different actions in Mexico. Not sure if better or worse, but different.

I don't see how a different outcome in the 1912 US presdiential election can have any effect on WWI. A President Roosevelt trying to get a declaration in 1915, would run into real resistance. I think in 1916, he gets a Democratic opponent that uses the slogan I will keep us out of war.
 
Then again his cousing got a defense buildup based on the danger of a foriegn war.


His cousin had comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress. TR, if elected in these circs, very likely finds both houses controlled by the opposition. Even if the Republicans win narrow majorities (and in HoR especially thay'd have a high mountain to climb) these would almost certainly be lost again at the 1914 midterms. Plus of course the Republican minority is still split into two bitterly warring camps. TR would be lucky to get anything enacted at all.
 
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