What if Reagan managed to beat Gerald Ford in the Republican primaries/convention? The PoD could be that he doesn't promise to pick Schweiker, but I;m not sure that'd be enough given Ford already had a lead in delegates, which is why Reagan made the gamble to promise to pick Schweiker.
Anyway, let's say for the sake of this scenario he wins the general election. While there is a case to be made Reagan would have lost, I think that his charisma and his lack of Ford's weaknesses, as well as strong support in the South that could potentially get key electoral votes, means a Reagan has about a 50-50 chance of winning, IMO. I'm not a Reaganite, but I think his political opponents almost always underestimated him, at least his political strength. So, he wins a narrow victory, no more than 300 EVs but not so close that his legitimacy as President can be called into question.
However, Reagan's presidency would probably go worse than his OTL one. How would he deal with stagflation? Could he pass tax cuts through Congress? How would he handle foreign policy? What would happen in Iran? Given the challenges of the era, could an earlier Reagan presidency ironically hurt conservatism and help liberalism? What if?
Anyway, let's say for the sake of this scenario he wins the general election. While there is a case to be made Reagan would have lost, I think that his charisma and his lack of Ford's weaknesses, as well as strong support in the South that could potentially get key electoral votes, means a Reagan has about a 50-50 chance of winning, IMO. I'm not a Reaganite, but I think his political opponents almost always underestimated him, at least his political strength. So, he wins a narrow victory, no more than 300 EVs but not so close that his legitimacy as President can be called into question.
However, Reagan's presidency would probably go worse than his OTL one. How would he deal with stagflation? Could he pass tax cuts through Congress? How would he handle foreign policy? What would happen in Iran? Given the challenges of the era, could an earlier Reagan presidency ironically hurt conservatism and help liberalism? What if?