What if, instead of Virginia not seceding or Lee making the hard decision to serve the Union even if it means raising his sword against his home state, Lee agrees to serve but not as the overall commander (and instead says he'll serve as long he's not put into action against Virginia?)?
I agree fully. It is hard to change a person's personality (...) without throwing in a huge number of butterflies, and I'm assuming we don't have Virginia secede.
In fact, I posted this in an unrelated thread some months ago. Lee uses a technicality to set his mind at ease: he refuses to recognize the CSA as more than individual states, feels heartbroken that Virginia is acting unlawfully, and refuses to serve either for or against Virginia, but instead takes command of some or all Union forces in the west.
Seniority being what is, I see him taking over either Sherman's or Buell's job, Dep. of the Ohio or similar - if Sherman he will manage the 1861 recruiting much better, and let Thomas advance on Mill Springs before Zollicoffer and Crittenden do, thus the Union has an 1861 vicory. Perhaps leads a force against Bowling Green?
But anyway the Union war effort in the west goes very well, Grant still takes Henry and Donelson, advances southwest but with Lee leading the Army of the Ohio at a more rapid pace, thus disabling the Confederate surprise attack at Shiloh, and by the middle of 1862 Tennessee is almost all occupied by Union forces - if Lee recognizes Buell's incompetence then he asks Thomas to take command of the XIVth corps earlier and Bragg never gets to invade Kentucky either. Better yet, he pushes on Knoxville earlier.
Meanwhile, though, in the east, I doubt McClellan would *not* win in W. Virginia with no Lee, so he gets AotP command, and no obvious reason to not proceed as in OTL. But if Johnson is still wounded at Seven Pines, who takes command for the Confederates?
Given the failures of the Union intelligence system, if the Confederate commander attacks McClellan at all, and not necessarily over Seven Days, I think he still will withdraw. No reason to not have Jackson's splendid Strategic victory in the Valley. With no Lee to put a stop to Jackson's aggressiveness, I can see him driving on Washington before Pope re-organizes the Army of Virginia.
If that happens......how strong exactly were the Washington defenses in the middle of 1862? Because I can forsee Lee leading a drive on Chattanooga/Atlanta and/or Vicksburg in the Middle of 1862 for the north, at the same time as Jackson leads all or part of the AoNV in a successful invasion of Washington DC.
