What if: Richard III manages to marry off Elizabeth of York before being overthrown?

As the title says, what if Richard III manages to marry of Elizabeth of York, before being overthrown? Elizabeth will marry Manuel, Duke of Beja, later Manuel I of Portugal, as Richard wanted her to in OTL. Would Richard III still get overthrown here? Would Henry Tudor still have enough support to overthrow Richard III? If so would Henry's reign be even more unstable in this scenario?
 
Agreed, but would he have as much support here, since he's not marrying the Edwardian Claimant*? Would his reign be more unstable here?

* Assuming the Princes in the Tower are dead by now, which they most likely were.
I dont see why he wouldn't. People still dislike Richard for the same reasons they did OTL.
 
I dont see why he wouldn't. People still dislike Richard for the same reasons they did OTL.
I suppose, Richard pretty much lost any Edwardian support he could've had. Would Henry VII pick a daughter of Manuel and Elizabeth to be the bride for alt Arthur here? Just to secure Elizabeth's Yorkist blood. It also brings in Lancastrian blood and a renewal of the Anglo-Portuguese alliance.
 
If Richard manages to secure Elizabeth's marriage to Manuel, then Tudor's not getting the throne. Elizabeth goes to Portugal, and Cecily was married to Ralph Scrope in early 1485, so she's not available for him either. Anne, Katherine, Bridget and Margaret of Clarence are all far too young. And while Richard might not be popular, no Yorkist is going to turn on him for Henry without the latter taking a York Princess as his bride. Richard will stay on his throne, and the Earl of Lincoln will probably inherit after him, if he doesn't remarry and have another son.
 
If Richard manages to marry Elizabeth off, then he will at the same time marry Joanna of Portugal. Thus granting him a alliance with one of the most powerful monarchies in Europe with a very strong naval power. Henry doesn't get shit in England, other than the executioner's axe as soon as Richard gets his hands on him.

If Joanna gives Richard a son or two, then Henry will be a footnote in history.
 
Henry doesn't get shit in England, other than the executioner's axe as soon as Richard gets his hands on him.
Not sure about that, actually. Margaret Beaufort had almost completed a deal with Edward IV for Henry to be restored to the Earldom of Richmond. If Richard is secure on his throne, either with a son or two to come after him, or with the Lincoln line to hold the throne, then Henry *might* - eventually - be pardoned and made Earl of Richmond with a nice loyal Ricardian bride - Katherine Howard, John Howard, Duke of Norfolk's youngest daughter springs to mind...
 
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The answer to this depends very much on when exactly you imagine this happening. If the marriage is negotiated after Buckingham's rebellion, then a large number of Edward IV's supporters will have already proven themselves as traitors to the Ricardian regime and stripped of their lands and offices. This means that much of the southern gentry, along with a handful of bishops and minor lords, will have already been ruined. These people have nothing left to lose, so why would they not still throw in with Tudor in a last ditch attempt to regain their stations in life?

If the negotiations conclude before Buckingham's rebellion, well ... there probably isn't a rebellion then. There is no Beaufort-Woodville alliance to pave the way for Tudor. He may die in obscurity in Brittany, be ransomed back to England for execution, or perhaps the French would ransom his release and wed him to some French or Scottish princess, just to F with the English. The French delighted in these sorts of games in this era.


If Richard manages to marry Elizabeth off, then he will at the same time marry Joanna of Portugal. Thus granting him a alliance with one of the most powerful monarchies in Europe with a very strong naval power.
Portugal's resources are entirely tied up in Africa and Spain at this moment in history. A royal marriage will lend legitimacy to Richard's usurpation, but otherwise the Portuguese don't have the ability to support him in any meaningful way.
 
Not sure about that, actually. Margaret Beaufort had almost completed a deal with Edward IV for Henry to be restored to the Earldom of Richmond. If Richard is secure on his throne, either with a son or two to come after him, or with the Lincoln line to hold the throne, then Henry *might* - eventually - be pardoned and made Earl of Richmond with a nice loyal Ricardian bride - Katherine Howard, John Howard, Duke of Norfolk's youngest daughter springs to mind...
Margaret was a tremendous political player, but she took her shot with Buckingham's rebellion -- which really ought be called Beaufort's rebellion -- and had been stripped of everything she had as a result of it. Richard does not seem like the sort of figure to forgive or forget, no matter much time passes, so I don't think an Edward IV-style deal is possible.
 
Margaret was a tremendous political player, but she took her shot with Buckingham's rebellion -- which really ought be called Beaufort's rebellion -- and had been stripped of everything she had as a result of it. Richard does not seem like the sort of figure to forgive or forget, no matter much time passes, so I don't think an Edward IV-style deal is possible.
Yeah, maybe not, after all. An obscure death in Brittany is probably the best Tudor can hope for.
 
If Richard manages to secure Elizabeth's marriage to Manuel, then Tudor's not getting the throne. Elizabeth goes to Portugal, and Cecily was married to Ralph Scrope in early 1485, so she's not available for him either. Anne, Katherine, Bridget and Margaret of Clarence are all far too young. And while Richard might not be popular, no Yorkist is going to turn on him for Henry without the latter taking a York Princess as his bride. Richard will stay on his throne, and the Earl of Lincoln will probably inherit after him, if he doesn't remarry and have another son.
I never thought about the other York girls getting married as well! Tudor’s definitely not getting the throne if Cecily is unavailable then.
Not sure about that, actually. Margaret Beaufort had almost completed a deal with Edward IV for Henry to be restored to the Earldom of Richmond. If Richard is secure on his throne, either with a son or two to come after him, or with the Lincoln line to hold the throne, then Henry *might* - eventually - be pardoned and made Earl of Richmond with a nice loyal Ricardian bride - Katherine Howard, John Howard, Duke of Norfolk's youngest daughter springs to mind...
I don’t know if Margaret actually tried this with Richard. She’ll likely start from square 1, first cozying up to Richard and then negotiating Tudor’s return. So Tudor would be coming back in around 1488 then. I don’t know if he’ll be given a Howard though, they may be used as proxy brides, maybe a Bourchier?
Margaret was a tremendous political player, but she took her shot with Buckingham's rebellion -- which really ought be called Beaufort's rebellion -- and had been stripped of everything she had as a result of it. Richard does not seem like the sort of figure to forgive or forget, no matter much time passes, so I don't think an Edward IV-style deal is possible.
Personally I imagine this would be before the Buckingham Revolt, because I don’t know if Richard would marry Elizabeth off so soon after the Buckingham revolt. There is a risk she could be freed on the way to he boat that will take her to Portugal.
the French would ransom his release and wed him to some French or Scottish princess, just to F with the English. The French delighted in these sorts of games in this era
So basically he becomes Richard de la Pole in this scenario?
 
Though tbh, Elizabeth is technically a bastard at this point so would Manuel even accept her?
That is a good point! He does need heirs of his own though, and the (allegedly) illegitimate daughter of an English King isn’t that bad for a Duke. Then again if John II wants it he’ll make sure it happens.
 
Though tbh, Elizabeth is technically a bastard at this point so would Manuel even accept her?
Things would be quite a bit more interesting if he did. Assuming the Portuguese line still dies off on schedule, Manuel is legitimate heir of John of Gaunt via Philippa of Lancaster (possessing a claim that has none of the legal uncertainty of the Beaufort legitimization) and his wife is the heiress of Edward IV. The Tudor rose still blooms -- but is an Avis rose instead.

Portugal has not the resources to do anything about this in the near term, but fast forward 20 years and they've sailed around Africa, monopolized the spice trade from Asia, and their treasury is overflowing with gold. Manuel I is the wealthiest man in Europe and reigns over a Golden Age in Portugal -- and his sons have claims to a damp, rainy island up north whose ruling class has been wracked by civil war for much of the past half-century ...
 
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