What if RFK survived?

[Yossarian]

What if Robert Kennedy was injured slightly less severely when Sirhan tried to assassinate him and managed to pull through and be well enough to continue his campaign for the Presidency? Would sympathy for his having been attacked improve his chances of winning the Democratic nomination? And if he did win the nomination, could he beat Nixon?

What would an RFK Presidency look like? Compared to modern politicians even Nixon seems pretty liberal, and RFK was considered something of a radical reformer even in his own time. A Universal Healthcare plan seems very possible, as well as a continuation and expansion of Great Society style anti-poverty programs.

 

[Bulletsfromthegrassyknoll]

If RFK won the nomination, he had the pockets to win the General Election.
But how would he win the nomination? The Democrats were controlled by the big city bosses and labor unions that supported HHH. He could have won the nomination, but it would have been a tough fight.
You should probably ask RogueBeaver, for an answer to this question.

 

[ASRI]

I can't see how Humphrey doesn't still take the nomination. He'll probably offer RFK the Vice-Presidency as a courtesy, but he won't take it. Nixon still wins, perhaps by a bigger margin thanks to disaffected RFK voters. Kennedy then becomes the presumptive front-runner for '72 or '76.

 

[RogueBeaver]

You called?

I no longer have access to the period Newsweeks which had the weekly delegate tracker, but IIRC as of June 3 HHH was ahead by 250-odd delegates, but still 200 short of the 1314 needed for nomination. Something like 1150-858. Remember that these numbers are not hard: 75% of the delegates are boss-controlled, with only 25% chosen in primaries. Daley and Dan Rostenkowski strongly hinted that if RFK won California they would support him.

If Kennedy lives (very easy: the bullet entering one inch higher means it lodges in the back of his skull instead of splintering into his brain as per OTL- had he not died IOTL he would've been a Schiavoesque vegetable), then he'll have won California 46-42 (the only WTA primary, so he gets 174 delegates) and HHH's home state of South Dakota 50-30-20. On June 11 he has to win NY by a convincing margin since McCarthy was mounting a strong challenge. June 18th is the preferential Illinois primary, which is nonbinding and RFK had avoided entering at Daley's request. After that it's 2 months till the Democratic convention.

To win Kennedy has to convince the Democratic bosses that the primaries proved he is the best candidate to hold the NDC together in the fall. Which is true: his core voters are blue-collar workers (many of whom defected to Wallace or Nixon in November), blacks and Hispanics. Another argument is infrastructure: he had by far the best campaign organization on the Democratic side, not to mention fundraising. If he convinces them, then he can win the nomination on the 3rd or 4th ballot.

How will Gene McCarthy go? Every indication was that they'd support HHH rather than each other, but supporting Humphrey would infuriate McCarthy's antiwar base because of HHH's hawkish stance. Supporting Kennedy is ASB given how much they loathed each other. So McCarthy probably releases his delegates at some point without instructions on who to vote for.

Sympathy vote: He gets a slightly bigger margin in NY, but needed about 5-6 weeks to recuperate from those sort of injuries.

Does he win the nomination: pure tossup.

Can he beat Nixon: again, pure tossup. Wallace's vote will be squeezed outside the South since many Northern RFK voters who voted for Wallae in the general IOTL will stay Democratic. Increased turnout in LA among blacks and Hispanics will keep California in play. It will be a narrow victory either way.

RFK presidency: Overall, slightly to the left of Clinton. You'll see many OTL Clinton initiatives such as welfare reform, AmeriCorps, expanded health coverage for low-income Americans, but also a shot at UHC along similar lines to Nixon's proposed CHIP and higher taxes on the top bracket. FP wise, Vietnamization and diplomatic recognition of the PRC.

 

[Bulletsfromthegrassyknoll]

Rogue Beaver, since we're on RFK (and thanks for coming), would you say that RFK's distaste for big city bosses, old-timer politics, and the "art of politics" would have made relations with the old-timer Democratic Congressional leadership tough? His brother couldn't work well with Congress due to his team, but RFK was part of that young hotshot team.

And would you say that RFK's coalition would have reshaped the Democratic Party?

 

[RogueBeaver]

It would have been tough, but easier in the Senate once Ted becomes Majority Whip, and Mansfield is also a longtime friend of his. He'd worked with Dirksen on the CRA in '63-'64 quite successfully. On many items (welfare reform for instance), as Clinton did, he will need Republican votes because he's to the right of his Congressional party.

The coalition is the same as Hillary Clinton's: blue-collar whites, blacks and Hispanics: a reconfiguration of the NDC. He was loathed by suburbanites IOTL because of his personality, not because of his policy positions. Another item that will come up is gun control, despite being an experienced hunter he supported a national gun registry on the Canadian model.

 

[Bulletsfromthegrassyknoll]

It would have been tough, but easier in the Senate once Ted becomes Majority Whip, and Mansfield is also a longtime friend of his. He'd worked with Dirksen on the CRA in '63-'64 quite successfully. On many items (welfare reform for instance), as Clinton did, he will need Republican votes because he's to the right of his Congressional party.

The coalition is the same as Hillary Clinton's: blue-collar whites, blacks and Hispanics: a reconfiguration of the NDC. He was loathed by suburbanites IOTL because of his personality, not because of his policy positions. Another item that will come up is gun control, despite being an experienced hunter he supported a national gun registry on the Canadian model.

Well, true, but this guy was very much to the left of his Congressional Party on civil rights during the JFK presidency, and the like. Obviously on fiscal policies, he was more conservative, but still relatively liberal.

I agree with you on his personality, but didn't he change tremendously after his brother died? The RFK who prosecuted the Mob and worked with Joe McCarthy was not the same RFK who led that minority coalition in '68. Tip O'Neill talks about his extreme ruthlessness in Man of the House, but even he agrees that his brother's death humbled him tremendously.

The Hillary Coalition is right of course. So, somewhat similar to FDR, and a traitor of his class?

As for Congress, he had a horrible relationship with O'Neill and McCormack. He probably didn't know much about Albert or Boggs, but Tip and McCormack were the exact type of politicians he hated. That explained his strained relationship with LBJ.

 

[troosvelt]

IMNSHO there is zero chance that RFK would have won in 68.

As has been noted, much of the nomination process was controlled by the party bosses (and in turn LBJ).

LBJ was absolutely obsessed with not being the 'accident' between the Kennedys.

He would have done anything he needed to do in order to beat RFK.

 

[THE OBSERVER]

You don't know what can happen. There are so many possibilities, variables, factors involved. You can't make an accurate prediction. You can only assume.