What If: Reagan selects a different running mate than Bush in 1980?

In OTL, George H.W. Bush---fmr TX Congressman, UN Ambassador and CIA Director--was not fmr CA Governor Reagan's first choice as his running mate. After Reagan clinched the nomination with a long string of primary victories over Bush in the spring of 1980, the Reagan campaign team assembled a short list of potential running mates. List included TN Sen. Howard Baker (the Senate Minority Leader), NY Congressman Jack Kemp, IN Sen. Richard Lugar, NV Sen. Paul Laxalt, fmr Treasury Sec. William Simon, and George H.W. Bush. As the GOP Convention in Detroit approached, speculation began to build that fmr President Gerald Ford might be interested. Negotiations between the Reagan campaign staff and Ford's team for such a 'Dream Ticket" were ongoing during the Convention itself, but fell through at almost the 11th hour. Reagan then called Bush--who had given assurances earlier in the evening that he could support the entire conservative Reagan platform, incluidng the pro-life plank and the supply-side economics plank--and offered him the vice-presidential spot on the 1980 ticket.

What If Reagan picked someone else as his running mate in 1980? Might the Dream Ticket have been salvaged and the 1980 Republican ticket been Reagan-Ford after all? Who would Reagan have picked if not Ford or Bush? Does Reagan still beat Carter in November 1980 with a different running mate? If Reagan wins, who gets the Republican nomination in 1988? What happens to Bush?
 
No Bush dynasty and politically speaking, the Bushes are relative nobodies ITTL.

Ford: Not happening.

Baker: That means either Dole or Stevens (vote was very close IOTL) is Majority Leader in Reagan's first term. Apart from that no difference.

Kemp: Great choice but Reagan might be wary of picking someone who's never run statewide.

Lugar: Maybe, but doubtful.

Laxalt: That means doubling up rather than picking a moderate, though Laxalt was well-regarded in establishment circles so effect might be minimal.


IMO the most likely alternate choice would be Baker or Laxalt, depending on what Reagan wanted.
 
No Bush dynasty and politically speaking, the Bushes are relative nobodies ITTL.

Ford: Not happening.

Baker: That means either Dole or Stevens (vote was very close IOTL) is Majority Leader in Reagan's first term. Apart from that no difference.

Kemp: Great choice but Reagan might be wary of picking someone who's never run statewide.

Lugar: Maybe, but doubtful.

Laxalt: That means doubling up rather than picking a moderate, though Laxalt was well-regarded in establishment circles so effect might be minimal.


IMO the most likely alternate choice would be Baker or Laxalt, depending on what Reagan wanted.

My guess is Baker. Laxalt adds nothing.
 
Rummy seems like an obvious pick to me. (Ford man, so Reagan gets the whole party unity thing, national security experience as SoD, and a youthful counterpoint to the Gipper) Was he never seriously considered? And if not, anyone know why?
 
I don't see the Dream Ticket happening at all. Ford simply wanted more than Reagan was willing to give, and Ford had already been VP so the office had no allure for him.

If Bush is passed over, then Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker makes the most sense as Reagan's establishment guy. Lugar was in his first term at that time, and Laxalt was a Reagan buddy from the neighboring state of Nevada who added litttle to the ticket. Part of the problem with Kemp was he was a former NFL quarterback and Reagan didn't want the actor/quarterback thing played up.

Reagan-Baker still beat Carter-Mondale in November 1980.

Bush probably gets a high level cabinet appointment. Maybe State or Defense, as he already served as UN Ambassador, Envoy to China, and CIA Director under Nixon-Ford. Short of serving at State/Defense, it is possible that Bush serves a national Security Advisor or returns to China as a full Ambassador.
 
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